NFL prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Games with a market price, beside the model. Futures · model lines
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
NFL prediction market odds Thursday, November 5
1 game| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX at BAL Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens | 82 · 19 Kalshi · | 83 · 18 Polymarket · | 60 · 40 model 2.0 | – | −22 BAL, Polymarket | Matchup |
NFL prediction market odds Sunday, November 8
13 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL at IND Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts | 70 · 31 Kalshi · | 70 · 31 Polymarket · | 51 · 49 model 2.0 | – | −19 IND, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| DEN at CAR Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers | 58 · 42 Kalshi · | 59 · 42 Polymarket · | 72 · 28 model 2.0 | – | +14 CAR, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| NYG at PHI New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles | 63 · 38 Kalshi · | 63 · 38 Polymarket · | 49 · 51 model 2.0 | – | −13 PHI, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| CLE at NO Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints | 40 · 60 Kalshi · | 40 · 61 Polymarket · | 50 · 50 model 2.0 | – | +11 NO, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| HOU at LAC Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers | 67 · 34 Kalshi · | 68 · 33 Polymarket · | 61 · 39 model 2.0 | – | −7 LAC, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| CIN at ATL Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons | 61 · 39 Kalshi · | 61 · 40 Polymarket · | 66 · 34 model 2.0 | – | +5 ATL, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| LAR at WSH Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders | 69 · 31 Kalshi · | 70 · 31 Polymarket · | 66 · 34 model 2.0 | – | −4 WSH, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| DET at MIA Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins | 75 · 25 Kalshi · | 75 · 26 Polymarket · | 72 · 28 model 2.0 | – | −3 MIA, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| ARI at SEA Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks | 15 · 85 Kalshi · | 16 · 85 Polymarket · | 18 · 82 model 2.0 | – | +3 SEA, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| GB at NE Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots | 40 · 61 Kalshi · | 39 · 62 Polymarket · | 37 · 63 model 2.0 | – | −3 NE, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| TB at CHI Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears | 28 · 72 Kalshi · | 28 · 72 Polymarket · | 29 · 71 model 2.0 | – | +1 CHI, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| NYJ at KC New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs | 19 · 81 Kalshi · | 20 · 81 Polymarket · | 20 · 80 model 2.0 | – | +1 KC, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| LV at SF Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers | 20 · 81 Kalshi · | 20 · 81 Polymarket · | 20 · 80 model 2.0 | – | +1 SF, Kalshi | Matchup |
NFL prediction market odds Monday, November 9
1 game| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF at MIN Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings | 62 · 38 Kalshi · | 63 · 38 Polymarket · | 52 · 48 model 2.0 | – | −10 MIN, Kalshi | Matchup |
NFL prediction market odds Thursday, November 12
1 game| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH at NYG Washington Commanders at New York Giants | 48 · 52 Kalshi · | 48 · 53 Polymarket · | 42 · 58 model 2.0 | – | −6 NYG, Kalshi | Matchup |
NFL prediction market odds Sunday, November 15
12 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN at GB Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers | 44 · 56 Kalshi · | 43 · 57 Polymarket · | 55 · 45 model 2.0 | – | +13 GB, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| BUF at NYJ Buffalo Bills at New York Jets | 82 · 18 Kalshi · | 76 · 24 Polymarket · | 84 · 16 model 2.0 | – | +8 NYJ, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| SEA at LV Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders | 69 · 31 Kalshi · | 66 · 34 Polymarket · | 73 · 27 model 2.0 | – | +7 LV, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| HOU at CLE Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns | 62 · 38 Kalshi · | 60 · 41 Polymarket · | 55 · 45 model 2.0 | – | −7 CLE, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| KC at ATL Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons | 65 · 35 Kalshi · | 62 · 39 Polymarket · | 59 · 41 model 2.0 | – | −6 ATL, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| MIA at IND Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts | 47 · 53 Kalshi · | 45 · 56 Polymarket · | 41 · 59 model 2.0 | – | −6 IND, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| JAX at TEN Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans | 82 · 18 Kalshi · | 77 · 23 Polymarket · | 83 · 17 model 2.0 | – | +6 TEN, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| PIT at CIN Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals | 41 · 59 Kalshi · | 42 · 58 Polymarket · | 46 · 54 model 2.0 | – | +5 CIN, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| LAR at ARI Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals | 75 · 25 Kalshi · | 73 · 27 Polymarket · | 71 · 29 model 2.0 | – | −4 ARI, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| SF at DAL San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys | 64 · 36 Kalshi · | 65 · 35 Polymarket · | 68 · 32 model 2.0 | – | +4 DAL, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| CAR at NO Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints | 52 · 49 Kalshi · | 49 · 51 Polymarket · | 49 · 52 model 2.0 | – | −3 NO, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| NE at DET New England Patriots at Detroit Lions | 54 · 46 Kalshi · | 54 · 47 Polymarket · | 54 · 46 model 2.0 | – | +1 DET, Polymarket | Matchup |
NFL prediction market odds Monday, November 16
1 game| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC at BAL Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens | 52 · 48 Kalshi · | 52 · 48 Polymarket · | 31 · 69 model 2.0 | – | −21 BAL, Kalshi | Matchup |
Super Bowl odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
All teams| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | Axle rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 14% | 14% | #4 |
| Buffalo Bills | 14% | 13% | #1 |
| Chicago Bears | 12% | 12% | #6 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 7.5% | 8.8% | #13 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 7.5% | 7.9% | #7 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 6.5% | 7% | #9 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 6.5% | 4.5% | #3 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 5.5% | 4.9% | #12 |
NFL: market versus model record
- Kalshi's closing price beat the model in NFL over 14 games (Brier 0.1794 against 0.1855, lower is better).
- Polymarket's closing price beat the model in NFL over 14 games (Brier 0.1786 against 0.1855, lower is better).
| League | Games | Who | n | Brier | Log loss | Straight-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Kalshi games | Kalshi price | 14 | 0.1794 | 0.5398 | 79% |
| NFL | Kalshi games | Bandwagon model | 14 | 0.1855 | 0.5524 | 64% |
| NFL | Polymarket games | Polymarket price | 14 | 0.1786 | 0.5381 | 71% |
| NFL | Polymarket games | Bandwagon model | 14 | 0.1855 | 0.5524 | 64% |
The model's numbers are on the same games the market was scored on. 0.25 Brier and 0.693 log loss are a coin flip.
NFL award odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Candidate-by-candidate prices from both markets for the season's awards.
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Kalshi and Polymarket prices for upcoming NFL games and the season, next to Bandwagon's model and the crowd's picks, with the record of who was right. Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers.