Prediction market odds today: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
40 games with a market price in the next day and a half.
How to read this page
Kalshi and Polymarket prices for today's NFL, college football, NBA, NHL, MLB and soccer games next to Bandwagon's own model and the crowd's picks, biggest disagreements first. Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers.
Each game shows the markets' de-vigged chance, Bandwagon's own model and the bandwagon's picks side by side, the biggest disagreement between market and model first. Every market number carries its source and the time the price was read.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Today's games: markets, model and crowd
40 gamesBAL win %: Kalshi 19 · Polymarket 18 · model 40MIA at LAC NBA−17
LAC win %: Kalshi 36 · Polymarket 36 · model 52PHI at DET NBA−13
DET win %: Kalshi 56 · Polymarket 56 · model 69TOL at SAC CFB−12
SAC win %: Kalshi 5 · Polymarket 6 · model 17MIN at HOU NBA+11
HOU win %: Kalshi 72 · Polymarket 72 · model 61UTAH at MTL NHL−10
MTL win %: Kalshi 48 · Polymarket 48 · model 57STL at NJ NHL+9
NJ win %: Kalshi 63 · Polymarket 64 · model 55MIA at GS NBA−8
GS win %: Kalshi 62 · Polymarket 61 · model 69UTSA at FAU CFB+8
FAU win %: Kalshi 31 · Polymarket 30 · model 22UTAH at NO NBA−8
NO win %: Kalshi 68 · Polymarket 68 · model 75BALL at MASS CFB+8
MASS win %: Kalshi 60 · Polymarket 59 · model 52LAL at SAC NBA−7
SAC win %: Kalshi 17 · Polymarket 17 · model 24
28 more on the league pages below.
The number on the right is the biggest gap, in points, between a market and the model on the home side's win chance.
NFL markets
1 game now1 game has a market price in the next day and a half.
Every NFL game and the championship odds ›College football markets
5 games now5 games have a market price in the next day and a half.
Every College football game and the championship odds ›NBA markets
16 games now16 games have a market price in the next day and a half.
Every NBA game and the championship odds ›NHL markets
15 games now15 games have a market price in the next day and a half.
Every NHL game and the championship odds ›MLB markets
0 games nowNo game with a market price right now.
Every MLB game and the championship odds ›Premier League markets
0 games nowNo game with a market price right now.
Every Premier League game and the championship odds ›La Liga markets
0 games nowNo game with a market price right now.
Every La Liga game and the championship odds ›Bundesliga markets
0 games nowNo game with a market price right now.
Every Bundesliga game and the championship odds ›Serie A markets
0 games nowNo game with a market price right now.
Every Serie A game and the championship odds ›Ligue 1 markets
0 games nowNo game with a market price right now.
Every Ligue 1 game and the championship odds ›Champions League markets
3 games now3 games have a market price in the next day and a half.
Every Champions League game and the championship odds ›MLS markets
0 games nowNo game with a market price right now.
Every MLS game and the championship odds ›NWSL markets
0 games nowNo game with a market price right now.
Every NWSL game and the championship odds ›Who has been right?
- The model beat Kalshi's closing price in College football over 53 games (Brier 0.1665 against 0.1499, lower is better).
- The model beat Polymarket's closing price in College football over 53 games (Brier 0.165 against 0.1499, lower is better).
- Kalshi's closing price beat the model in Premier League over 10 games (Brier 0.2498 against 0.2711, lower is better).
- Polymarket's closing price beat the model in Premier League over 10 games (Brier 0.2509 against 0.2711, lower is better).
- Kalshi's closing price beat the model in NBA over 39 games (Brier 0.2015 against 0.227, lower is better).
- Polymarket's closing price beat the model in NBA over 39 games (Brier 0.2032 against 0.227, lower is better).
- Kalshi's closing price beat the model in NFL over 14 games (Brier 0.1794 against 0.1855, lower is better).
- Polymarket's closing price beat the model in NFL over 14 games (Brier 0.1786 against 0.1855, lower is better).
- Kalshi's closing price beat the model in NHL over 44 games (Brier 0.2225 against 0.2299, lower is better).
- Polymarket's closing price beat the model in NHL over 44 games (Brier 0.2235 against 0.2299, lower is better).
| League | Games | Who | n | Brier | Log loss | Straight-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College football | Kalshi games | Kalshi price | 53 | 0.1665 | 0.5027 | 79% |
| College football | Kalshi games | Bandwagon model | 53 | 0.1499 | 0.4789 | 81% |
| College football | Polymarket games | Polymarket price | 53 | 0.165 | 0.4988 | 79% |
| College football | Polymarket games | Bandwagon model | 53 | 0.1499 | 0.4789 | 81% |
| Premier League | Kalshi games | Kalshi price | 10 | 0.2498 | 0.6932 | 50% |
| Premier League | Kalshi games | Bandwagon model | 10 | 0.2711 | 0.7348 | 60% |
| Premier League | Polymarket games | Polymarket price | 10 | 0.2509 | 0.695 | 50% |
| Premier League | Polymarket games | Bandwagon model | 10 | 0.2711 | 0.7348 | 60% |
| NBA | Kalshi games | Kalshi price | 39 | 0.2015 | 0.5823 | 67% |
| NBA | Kalshi games | Bandwagon model | 39 | 0.227 | 0.6406 | 62% |
| NBA | Polymarket games | Polymarket price | 39 | 0.2032 | 0.5861 | 67% |
| NBA | Polymarket games | Bandwagon model | 39 | 0.227 | 0.6406 | 62% |
| NFL | Kalshi games | Kalshi price | 14 | 0.1794 | 0.5398 | 79% |
| NFL | Kalshi games | Bandwagon model | 14 | 0.1855 | 0.5524 | 64% |
| NFL | Polymarket games | Polymarket price | 14 | 0.1786 | 0.5381 | 71% |
| NFL | Polymarket games | Bandwagon model | 14 | 0.1855 | 0.5524 | 64% |
| NHL | Kalshi games | Kalshi price | 44 | 0.2225 | 0.6353 | 58% |
| NHL | Kalshi games | Bandwagon model | 44 | 0.2299 | 0.6514 | 59% |
| NHL | Polymarket games | Polymarket price | 44 | 0.2235 | 0.6373 | 59% |
| NHL | Polymarket games | Bandwagon model | 44 | 0.2299 | 0.6514 | 59% |
The model's numbers are on the same games the market was scored on. 0.25 Brier and 0.693 log loss are a coin flip.
Kalshi vs Polymarket
How far apart the two venues' prices were on the same games, which leagues each one priced, and how each one's favorite did against results.
Cricket
Match winner prices from Kalshi and Polymarket for cricket matches, by competition: Tests, ODIs, T20 leagues and internationals, with the gap between the two venues.
Season-long markets
Championship prices for every team, plus win-total prices for NFL, NBA and NHL, next to the model's rating rank and the Bandwagon Index where the model rates the league.
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