MLB championship odds on prediction markets vs the Bandwagon model
Title prices beside the model's rank. MLB games
What is compared
What Kalshi and Polymarket price for each MLB team to win the title, beside where Bandwagon's ratings rank the team and how confident the neutrals are in it (the Index). The model has no championship probability of its own; the comparison is the rank.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
MLB championship odds by team
30 teams| Team | Championship Kalshi | Championship Polymarket | Market rank vs model rating rank | Bandwagon Index neutrals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 21% Kalshi · | – | #1 market · #2 ratings | – |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 15% Kalshi · | – | #2 market · #1 ratings | – |
| New York Yankees | 7.6% Kalshi · | – | #3 market · #3 ratings | – |
| San Diego Padres | 5.5% Kalshi · | – | #4 market · #5 ratings | – |
| New York Mets | 5.3% Kalshi · | – | #5 market · #16 ratings | – |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 5.3% Kalshi · | – | #6 market · #4 ratings | – |
| Detroit Tigers | 5.1% Kalshi · | – | #7 market · #15 ratings | – |
| Atlanta Braves | 4.9% Kalshi · | – | #8 market · #8 ratings | – |
| Chicago Cubs | 4.8% Kalshi · | – | #9 market · #6 ratings | – |
| Cleveland Guardians | 4.3% Kalshi · | – | #10 market · #11 ratings | – |
| Boston Red Sox | 4.2% Kalshi · | – | #11 market · #7 ratings | – |
| Seattle Mariners | 3.8% Kalshi · | – | #12 market · #23 ratings | – |
| Chicago White Sox | 3.6% Kalshi · | – | #13 market · #13 ratings | – |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 3.5% Kalshi · | – | #14 market · #10 ratings | – |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 3.5% Kalshi · | – | #15 market · #9 ratings | – |
| Houston Astros | 2.9% Kalshi · | – | #16 market · #19 ratings | – |
| Texas Rangers | 2.7% Kalshi · | – | #17 market · #20 ratings | – |
| Baltimore Orioles | 2.5% Kalshi · | – | #18 market · #14 ratings | – |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 2.5% Kalshi · | – | #19 market · #12 ratings | – |
| Miami Marlins | 2% Kalshi · | – | #20 market · #18 ratings | – |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1.8% Kalshi · | – | #21 market · #17 ratings | – |
| Minnesota Twins | 1.5% Kalshi · | – | #22 market · #24 ratings | – |
| San Francisco Giants | 1.5% Kalshi · | – | #23 market · #27 ratings | – |
| Cincinnati Reds | 1.5% Kalshi · | – | #24 market · #25 ratings | – |
| Athletics | 1.4% Kalshi · | – | #25 market · #29 ratings | – |
| Los Angeles Angels | 1.4% Kalshi · | – | #26 market · #28 ratings | – |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 1.3% Kalshi · | – | #27 market · #22 ratings | – |
| Kansas City Royals | 1.1% Kalshi · | – | #28 market · #26 ratings | – |
| Washington Nationals | 1% Kalshi · | – | #29 market · #21 ratings | – |
| Colorado Rockies | 1% Kalshi · | – | #30 market · #30 ratings | – |
Kalshi's championship prices add up to 124%: prices for a field of mutually exclusive outcomes add to a little over 100% because every long shot is quoted at least a cent. These are not normalized here.
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MLB championship prices from Kalshi and Polymarket for every team, next to Bandwagon's rating rank and the Bandwagon Index. Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers.