NBA prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Games with a market price, beside the model. Futures · model lines
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
NBA prediction market odds Wednesday, November 4
14 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA at LAC Miami Heat at LA Clippers | 65 · 36 Kalshi · | 65 · 36 Polymarket · | 48 · 52 model 2.0 | – | −17 LAC, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| PHI at DET Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons | 45 · 56 Kalshi · | 45 · 56 Polymarket · | 31 · 69 model 2.0 | – | −13 DET, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| MIN at HOU Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets | 28 · 72 Kalshi · | 28 · 72 Polymarket · | 39 · 61 model 2.0 | – | +11 HOU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| MIL at BOS Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics | 23 · 78 Kalshi · | 22 · 79 Polymarket · | 14 · 86 model 2.0 | – | −8 BOS, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| UTAH at NO Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans | 32 · 69 Kalshi · | 33 · 68 Polymarket · | 25 · 75 model 2.0 | – | −8 NO, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| LAL at SAC Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings | 84 · 17 Kalshi · | 84 · 17 Polymarket · | 76 · 24 model 2.0 | – | −7 SAC, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| ATL at WSH Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards | 58 · 42 Kalshi · | 57 · 43 Polymarket · | 65 · 35 model 2.0 | – | +7 WSH, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| CHA at BKN Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets | 61 · 40 Kalshi · | 61 · 40 Polymarket · | 68 · 32 model 2.0 | – | +7 BKN, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| CLE at OKC Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder | 40 · 61 Kalshi · | 40 · 61 Polymarket · | 32 · 68 model 2.0 | – | −7 OKC, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| TOR at DEN Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets | 37 · 63 Kalshi · | 38 · 63 Polymarket · | 44 · 56 model 2.0 | – | +6 DEN, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| CHI at NY Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks | 17 · 84 Kalshi · | 17 · 84 Polymarket · | 12 · 88 model 2.0 | – | −5 NY, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| IND at MEM Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies | 32 · 68 Kalshi · | 32 · 69 Polymarket · | 28 · 72 model 2.0 | – | −4 MEM, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| POR at PHX Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns | 57 · 43 Kalshi · | 59 · 42 Polymarket · | 59 · 41 model 2.0 | – | +2 PHX, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| DAL at SA Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs | 18 · 83 Kalshi · | 18 · 83 Polymarket · | 16 · 84 model 2.0 | – | −2 SA, Kalshi | Matchup |
NBA prediction market odds Thursday, November 5
2 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA at GS Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors | 39 · 62 Kalshi · | 40 · 61 Polymarket · | 31 · 69 model 2.0 | – | −8 GS, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| ORL at PHX Orlando Magic at Phoenix Suns | 50 · 51 Kalshi · | 49 · 51 Polymarket · | 55 · 45 model 2.0 | – | +6 PHX, Polymarket | Matchup |
NBA prediction market odds Friday, November 6
9 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC at MEM Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies | 52 · 48 Kalshi · | 53 · 47 Polymarket · | 70 · 30 model 2.0 | – | +17 MEM, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| WSH at ATL Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks | 33 · 67 Kalshi · | 33 · 68 Polymarket · | 25 · 75 model 2.0 | – | −9 ATL, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| MIN at NO Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans | 61 · 39 Kalshi · | 60 · 41 Polymarket · | 67 · 33 model 2.0 | – | +7 NO, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| BOS at CHA Boston Celtics at Charlotte Hornets | 69 · 31 Kalshi · | 70 · 31 Polymarket · | 63 · 37 model 2.0 | – | −6 CHA, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| UTAH at DAL Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks | 31 · 69 Kalshi · | 31 · 70 Polymarket · | 26 · 74 model 2.0 | – | −5 DAL, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| POR at LAL Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers | 37 · 63 Kalshi · | 37 · 64 Polymarket · | 41 · 59 model 2.0 | – | +5 LAL, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| PHI at CLE Philadelphia 76ers at Cleveland Cavaliers | 50 · 50 Kalshi · | 48 · 53 Polymarket · | 46 · 54 model 2.0 | – | −4 CLE, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| TOR at MIL Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks | 74 · 27 Kalshi · | 71 · 30 Polymarket · | 74 · 26 model 2.0 | – | +3 MIL, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| SA at SAC San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings | 87 · 14 Kalshi · | 85 · 15 Polymarket · | 85 · 15 model 2.0 | – | −1 SAC, Kalshi | Matchup |
NBA prediction market odds Saturday, November 7
7 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORL at GS Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors | 27 · 73 Kalshi · | 39 · 61 Polymarket · | 40 · 60 model 2.0 | – | +13 GS, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| WSH at OKC Washington Wizards at Oklahoma City Thunder | 26 · 74 Kalshi · | 26 · 74 Polymarket · | 13 · 87 model 2.0 | – | −13 OKC, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| BKN at ATL Brooklyn Nets at Atlanta Hawks | 32 · 68 Kalshi · | 35 · 66 Polymarket · | 25 · 75 model 2.0 | – | −9 ATL, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| NY at CLE New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers | 58 · 42 Kalshi · | 62 · 39 Polymarket · | 65 · 35 model 2.0 | – | +6 CLE, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| DEN at IND Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers | 74 · 27 Kalshi · | 74 · 27 Polymarket · | 79 · 21 model 2.0 | – | +6 IND, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| HOU at PHX Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns | 68 · 32 Kalshi · | 67 · 34 Polymarket · | 71 · 29 model 2.0 | – | +4 PHX, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| SA at POR San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers | 59 · 41 Kalshi · | 62 · 38 Polymarket · | 60 · 40 model 2.0 | – | −2 POR, Polymarket | Matchup |
NBA prediction market odds Sunday, November 8
7 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAL at DET Los Angeles Lakers at Detroit Pistons | no market | 44 · 56 Polymarket · | 31 · 69 model 2.0 | – | −13 DET, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| BKN at DAL Brooklyn Nets at Dallas Mavericks | no market | 34 · 66 Polymarket · | 23 · 77 model 2.0 | – | −11 DAL, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| UTAH at MIN Utah Jazz at Minnesota Timberwolves | no market | 22 · 79 Polymarket · | 11 · 89 model 2.0 | – | −10 MIN, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| NO at LAC New Orleans Pelicans at LA Clippers | no market | 44 · 56 Polymarket · | 41 · 59 model 2.0 | – | −3 LAC, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| MIA at SAC Miami Heat at Sacramento Kings | no market | 67 · 33 Polymarket · | 64 · 36 model 2.0 | – | −3 SAC, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| PHI at CHI Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls | no market | 75 · 25 Polymarket · | 74 · 26 model 2.0 | – | −1 CHI, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| BOS at MIL Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks | no market | 80 · 21 Polymarket · | 79 · 21 model 2.0 | – | 0 MIL, Polymarket | Matchup |
NBA prediction market odds Monday, November 9
8 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH at DET Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons | no market | 27 · 73 Polymarket · | 14 · 86 model 2.0 | – | −13 DET, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| CLE at CHA Cleveland Cavaliers at Charlotte Hornets | no market | 66 · 34 Polymarket · | 54 · 46 model 2.0 | – | −12 CHA, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| IND at DAL Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks | no market | 49 · 51 Polymarket · | 40 · 60 model 2.0 | – | −9 DAL, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| SA at PHX San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns | no market | 65 · 36 Polymarket · | 72 · 28 model 2.0 | – | +8 PHX, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| DEN at HOU Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets | no market | 38 · 62 Polymarket · | 31 · 69 model 2.0 | – | −7 HOU, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| LAL at ATL Los Angeles Lakers at Atlanta Hawks | no market | 43 · 57 Polymarket · | 47 · 53 model 2.0 | – | +5 ATL, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| NO at GS New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors | no market | 32 · 68 Polymarket · | 29 · 71 model 2.0 | – | −3 GS, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| MEM at TOR Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors | no market | 32 · 69 Polymarket · | 32 · 68 model 2.0 | – | 0 TOR, Polymarket | Matchup |
NBA prediction market odds Tuesday, November 10
6 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL at NY Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks | no market | 23 · 77 Polymarket · | 11 · 89 model 2.0 | – | −12 NY, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| LAC at PHX LA Clippers at Phoenix Suns | no market | 40 · 60 Polymarket · | 51 · 49 model 2.0 | – | +11 PHX, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| BOS at PHI Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers | no market | 54 · 47 Polymarket · | 49 · 51 model 2.0 | – | −5 PHI, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| MIA at UTAH Miami Heat at Utah Jazz | no market | 64 · 36 Polymarket · | 68 · 32 model 2.0 | – | +4 UTAH, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| OKC at POR Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers | no market | 52 · 48 Polymarket · | 55 · 45 model 2.0 | – | +3 POR, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| ORL at SAC Orlando Magic at Sacramento Kings | no market | 64 · 37 Polymarket · | 65 · 35 model 2.0 | – | +1 SAC, Polymarket | Matchup |
NBA prediction market odds Wednesday, November 11
10 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKN at NO Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans | no market | 42 · 58 Polymarket · | 29 · 71 model 2.0 | – | −13 NO, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| ORL at UTAH Orlando Magic at Utah Jazz | no market | 58 · 42 Polymarket · | 70 · 30 model 2.0 | – | +12 UTAH, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| CLE at NY Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks | no market | 48 · 53 Polymarket · | 38 · 62 model 2.0 | – | −9 NY, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| LAL at MIL Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks | no market | 74 · 26 Polymarket · | 81 · 19 model 2.0 | – | +7 MIL, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| SA at CHI San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls | no market | 77 · 23 Polymarket · | 84 · 16 model 2.0 | – | +7 CHI, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| BOS at TOR Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors | no market | 48 · 52 Polymarket · | 44 · 56 model 2.0 | – | −4 TOR, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| OKC at POR Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers | no market | 52 · 48 Polymarket · | 55 · 45 model 2.0 | – | +3 POR, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| GS at HOU Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets | no market | 29 · 71 Polymarket · | 26 · 74 model 2.0 | – | −3 HOU, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| WSH at IND Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers | no market | 49 · 52 Polymarket · | 47 · 54 model 2.0 | – | −2 IND, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| DEN at MEM Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies | no market | 54 · 46 Polymarket · | 56 · 44 model 2.0 | – | +2 MEM, Polymarket | Matchup |
NBA prediction market odds Thursday, November 12
4 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET at WSH Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards | no market | 71 · 29 Polymarket · | 86 · 14 model 2.0 | – | +15 WSH, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| CHA at PHX Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns | no market | 33 · 67 Polymarket · | 48 · 52 model 2.0 | – | +15 PHX, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| DAL at MIN Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves | no market | 31 · 70 Polymarket · | 21 · 79 model 2.0 | – | −9 MIN, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| TOR at PHI Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers | no market | 40 · 60 Polymarket · | 33 · 67 model 2.0 | – | −7 PHI, Polymarket | Matchup |
NBA prediction market odds Friday, November 13
9 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY at IND New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers | no market | 66 · 34 Polymarket · | 80 · 20 model 2.0 | – | +14 IND, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| UTAH at HOU Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets | no market | 21 · 80 Polymarket · | 9 · 91 model 2.0 | – | −11 HOU, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| CLE at MIA Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat | no market | 51 · 50 Polymarket · | 56 · 44 model 2.0 | – | +6 MIA, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| MIL at ORL Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic | no market | 30 · 70 Polymarket · | 26 · 74 model 2.0 | – | −4 ORL, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| MEM at NO Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Pelicans | no market | 51 · 50 Polymarket · | 46 · 54 model 2.0 | – | −4 NO, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| ATL at CHI Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls | no market | 67 · 33 Polymarket · | 71 · 29 model 2.0 | – | +4 CHI, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| OKC at LAC Oklahoma City Thunder at LA Clippers | no market | 72 · 28 Polymarket · | 69 · 31 model 2.0 | – | −3 LAC, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| POR at SAC Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings | no market | 72 · 28 Polymarket · | 73 · 27 model 2.0 | – | +2 SAC, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| GS at SA Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs | no market | 22 · 78 Polymarket · | 22 · 78 model 2.0 | – | 0 SA, Polymarket | Matchup |
NBA prediction market odds Saturday, November 14
5 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET at MIA Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat | no market | 59 · 42 Polymarket · | 76 · 24 model 2.0 | – | +17 MIA, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| CHI at MIN Chicago Bulls at Minnesota Timberwolves | no market | 22 · 78 Polymarket · | 11 · 89 model 2.0 | – | −11 MIN, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| BKN at MEM Brooklyn Nets at Memphis Grizzlies | no market | 38 · 63 Polymarket · | 32 · 68 model 2.0 | – | −5 MEM, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| DAL at CLE Dallas Mavericks at Cleveland Cavaliers | no market | 30 · 71 Polymarket · | 34 · 66 model 2.0 | – | +4 CLE, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| DEN at NO Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans | no market | 70 · 31 Polymarket · | 67 · 33 model 2.0 | – | −3 NO, Polymarket | Matchup |
NBA prediction market odds Sunday, November 15
9 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY at TOR New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors | no market | 46 · 55 Polymarket · | 56 · 44 model 2.0 | – | +11 TOR, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| SA at UTAH San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz | no market | 77 · 23 Polymarket · | 88 · 12 model 2.0 | – | +11 UTAH, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| HOU at WSH Houston Rockets at Washington Wizards | no market | 68 · 33 Polymarket · | 78 · 22 model 2.0 | – | +11 WSH, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| LAL at PHX Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns | no market | 54 · 47 Polymarket · | 63 · 37 model 2.0 | – | +9 PHX, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| CHA at LAC Charlotte Hornets at LA Clippers | no market | 41 · 60 Polymarket · | 48 · 52 model 2.0 | – | +7 LAC, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| OKC at SAC Oklahoma City Thunder at Sacramento Kings | no market | 76 · 24 Polymarket · | 83 · 17 model 2.0 | – | +7 SAC, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| IND at PHI Indiana Pacers at Philadelphia 76ers | no market | 24 · 77 Polymarket · | 17 · 83 model 2.0 | – | −7 PHI, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| DAL at BOS Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics | no market | 22 · 79 Polymarket · | 16 · 84 model 2.0 | – | −6 BOS, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| ATL at MIL Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks | no market | 71 · 30 Polymarket · | 70 · 30 model 2.0 | – | −1 MIL, Polymarket | Matchup |
NBA prediction market odds Monday, November 16
8 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI at BKN Philadelphia 76ers at Brooklyn Nets | no market | 62 · 39 Polymarket · | 73 · 27 model 2.0 | – | +12 BKN, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| HOU at MIA Houston Rockets at Miami Heat | no market | 51 · 50 Polymarket · | 62 · 38 model 2.0 | – | +11 MIA, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| MEM at WSH Memphis Grizzlies at Washington Wizards | no market | 53 · 48 Polymarket · | 62 · 38 model 2.0 | – | +9 WSH, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| POR at MIN Portland Trail Blazers at Minnesota Timberwolves | no market | 47 · 54 Polymarket · | 40 · 60 model 2.0 | – | −7 MIN, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| CHI at CLE Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers | no market | 23 · 77 Polymarket · | 18 · 82 model 2.0 | – | −5 CLE, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| ORL at BOS Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics | no market | 28 · 73 Polymarket · | 33 · 67 model 2.0 | – | +5 BOS, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| GS at NO Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans | no market | 54 · 47 Polymarket · | 55 · 45 model 2.0 | – | +1 NO, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| PHX at DEN Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets | no market | 28 · 72 Polymarket · | 27 · 73 model 2.0 | – | −1 DEN, Polymarket | Matchup |
NBA prediction market odds Tuesday, November 17
5 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH at LAC Utah Jazz at LA Clippers | no market | 39 · 62 Polymarket · | 24 · 76 model 2.0 | – | −14 LAC, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| NY at TOR New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors | no market | 46 · 55 Polymarket · | 57 · 43 model 2.0 | – | +12 TOR, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| DET at SA Detroit Pistons at San Antonio Spurs | no market | 32 · 69 Polymarket · | 43 · 57 model 2.0 | – | +12 SA, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| POR at MIN Portland Trail Blazers at Minnesota Timberwolves | no market | 47 · 54 Polymarket · | 40 · 60 model 2.0 | – | −7 MIN, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| CHA at LAL Charlotte Hornets at Los Angeles Lakers | no market | 25 · 76 Polymarket · | 29 · 71 model 2.0 | – | +4 LAL, Polymarket | Matchup |
NBA championship odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
All teams| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | Axle rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Spurs | 23% | 23% | #1 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 16% | 13% | #2 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 13% | 12% | #9 |
| Houston Rockets | 6.5% | 8.1% | #5 |
| Boston Celtics | 6.5% | 7.5% | #6 |
| New York Knicks | 6.5% | 5.5% | #3 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 5.5% | 5.6% | #7 |
| Detroit Pistons | 3.5% | 4.6% | #4 |
NBA: market versus model record
- Kalshi's closing price beat the model in NBA over 39 games (Brier 0.2015 against 0.227, lower is better).
- Polymarket's closing price beat the model in NBA over 39 games (Brier 0.2032 against 0.227, lower is better).
| League | Games | Who | n | Brier | Log loss | Straight-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | Kalshi games | Kalshi price | 39 | 0.2015 | 0.5823 | 67% |
| NBA | Kalshi games | Bandwagon model | 39 | 0.227 | 0.6406 | 62% |
| NBA | Polymarket games | Polymarket price | 39 | 0.2032 | 0.5861 | 67% |
| NBA | Polymarket games | Bandwagon model | 39 | 0.227 | 0.6406 | 62% |
The model's numbers are on the same games the market was scored on. 0.25 Brier and 0.693 log loss are a coin flip.
NBA award odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Candidate-by-candidate prices from both markets for the season's awards.
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Kalshi and Polymarket prices for upcoming NBA games and the season, next to Bandwagon's model and the crowd's picks, with the record of who was right. Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers.