Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerRockets 59%
- Projected scoreRockets 116, Heat 115
- Model spreadRockets −1 total 231.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Houston Rockets or Miami Heat: the bandwagon
Axle 59–41Market 51–49
Houston Rockets at Miami Heat win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | HOU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Score | HOU– | MIA– |
| Average win probability | HOU– | MIA– |
| Longest scoring run | HOU– | MIA– |
| Time leading | HOU– | MIA– |
Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | MIA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 11:11 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 11:11 PM ET | 41% | +3 |
| Nov 4, 11:06 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:36 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:26 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:21 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 9:30 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 38% | — |
- Ratings
- MIA 1481 · HOU 1632
- Home spread
- +1
- Stored
- Nov 4, 11:11 PM ET · 2026-11-05 04:11 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
- Last move
- spread +2 → +1, home 38% → 41%
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Rockets vs Heat odds on Polymarket
Every NBA marketPolymarket prices the Rockets at 51%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 59%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | HOU | MIA | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 51% | 49% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 59% | 41% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Rockets a 1-point favorite, with a 59% chance to win. The model total is 231.5. Ratings: Heat 1481 (19th of 30), Rockets 1652 (5th). The Heat are 2-5 in the Southeast; the Rockets are 7-1 in the Southwest. The Heat have won 2 of their last 5; the Rockets 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Heat won 4, the Rockets 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Houston Rockets
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Minnesota Timberwolves | L 107–117 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Boston Celtics | W 109–93 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Oklahoma City Thunder | W 119–98 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Dallas Mavericks | L 111–116 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Milwaukee Bucks | W 132–100 | – | – | matchup |
Miami Heat
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Los Angeles Lakers | L 117–138 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Indiana Pacers | W 145–125 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Atlanta Hawks | W 129–117 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Dallas Mavericks | L 109–113 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Charlotte Hornets | L 110–115 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Heat at Houston Rockets | 122–123 | – | – | matchup | |
| Houston Rockets at Miami Heat | 105–115 | – | – | matchup | |
| Houston Rockets at Miami Heat | 102–98 | – | – | matchup | |
| Miami Heat at Houston Rockets | 104–100 | – | – | matchup | |
| Miami Heat at Houston Rockets | 119–104 | – | – | matchup | |
| Houston Rockets at Miami Heat | 113–120 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Houston Rockets: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Miami Heat: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Rockets7-1 Southwest, 5th · W2
- Rockets rating1652 5th of 30, 8 games
- Heat2-5 Southeast, 1st · L1
- Heat rating1481 19th of 30, 7 games
Houston Rockets 7-1
National Basketball Association · Southwest · 5th · streak W2
No stances yet today on $ROCKETS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Houston Rockets bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Miami Heat 2-5
National Basketball Association · Southeast · 1st · streak L1
No stances yet today on $HEAT: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Miami Heat bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Rockets 59% to win. Projected score Rockets 116, Heat 115; spread Rockets −1, total 231.5. Polymarket 51% for the Rockets. Houston Rockets at Miami Heat, Mon, Nov 16, 7:30 PM ET.