Calgary leads 1-0 at 3:24 of the first, but the model still has Seattle at 54 percent at home. That is a small edge, close to even, and there are no crowd picks yet to compare it against.
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Calgary Flames vs Seattle Kraken: final score and how the prediction did, November 4, 2026
- Final scoreFlames 1, Kraken 2 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerKraken 54%
- Pregame Projected scoreKraken 3.4, Flames 3.1
- Model spreadKraken −0.5 total 6.5
- Margin1 projected 0.3
- Total3 projected 6.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Calgary Flames or Seattle Kraken: the bandwagon
Axle 46–54Market 45–55
Final · OTPregame: SEA 54%Baseline: SEA 45.6% (−8.8)Big swing: 24.9 ptsClutch window: 25:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| SEA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Shots
CGY 26SEA 29
Calgary Flames at Seattle Kraken win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for SEA over the last 5:00
Big swing24.9 ptstoward SEA at 33:09 of game time
Clutch window25:00within 1 goals in the final period
BaselineSEA 45.6%game average, −8.8 points from the pregame 54.4%
Calgary Flames vs Seattle Kraken live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | CGY | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | CGY26 | SEA29 |
| Hits | CGY21 | SEA17 |
| Blocked shots | CGY14 | SEA15 |
| Power play | CGY0/1 | SEA0/3 |
| Faceoff win | CGY38.5% | SEA61.5% |
| Takeaways | CGY2 | SEA3 |
| Giveaways | CGY9 | SEA17 |
| Penalty minutes | CGY8 | SEA4 |
Calgary Flames vs Seattle Kraken team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | CGY | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY1 | SEA2 |
| Average win probability | CGY54% | SEA46% |
| Longest scoring run | CGY+1 | SEA+2 |
| Time leading | CGY19:51 | SEA0:00 |
Calgary Flames vs Seattle Kraken model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated 6 h ago
Flames46%
Win chanceKraken54%
SpreadSEA −0.5closing model spread
Total6.5
Moneyline+119away / −119homeaway / home
Line movementSEA win chance, 28 stored lines
−1 pts for SEA between Oct 28 and Nov 4
62%49%
Oct 28Nov 1Nov 4
Every stored line
| Stored | SEA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 10:21 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:21 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:46 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:23 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:13 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:53 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:43 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:45 PM ET | 54% | −1 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:45 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:44 AM ET | 55% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 9:56 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:46 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 10:51 PM ET | 54% | −2 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:48 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 56% | +1 |
| Oct 28, 11:44 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:14 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 55% | — |
- Ratings
- SEA 1467 · CGY 1461
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 10:21 PM ET · 2026-11-05 03:21 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Calgary Flames 1, Seattle Kraken 2. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Nov 4, 9:30 AM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
FlamesKraken
Neutrals only–
FlamesKraken
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Kraken–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Flames vs Kraken odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NHL marketKalshi had the Kraken at 55% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 56% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 54% when last read, ; the two venues were 1 point apart at those reads.
| Source | CGY | SEA | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 45% | 55% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 44% | 56% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 46% | 54% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, SEA: +1Polymarket minus model, SEA: +1
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Calgary Flames vs Seattle Kraken prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Kraken a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 54% chance to win. The model total is 6.5. Ratings: Kraken 1467 (26th of 32), Flames 1461 (29th). The Kraken are 8-5-1 in the Pacific Division; the Flames are 7-8 in the Pacific Division. The Kraken have won 3 of their last 5; the Flames 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Kraken won 5, the Flames 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Calgary Flames
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Seattle Kraken | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Jose Sharks | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Colorado Avalanche | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Seattle Kraken | W 6–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Edmonton Oilers | L 0–4 | – | – | matchup |
Seattle Kraken
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Calgary Flames | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Calgary Flames | L 2–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Toronto Maple Leafs | W 5–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Minnesota Wild | L 1–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah Mammoth | W 5–3 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Kraken at Calgary Flames | 2–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| Calgary Flames at Seattle Kraken | 1–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| Seattle Kraken at Calgary Flames | 6–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Calgary Flames at Seattle Kraken | 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Seattle Kraken at Calgary Flames | 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Calgary Flames at Seattle Kraken | 1–4 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Calgary Flames: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Seattle Kraken: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Flames7-8 Pacific Division, 6th · W1
- Flames rating1461 29th of 32, 15 games
- Kraken8-5-1 Pacific Division, 3rd · L1
- Kraken rating1467 26th of 32, 14 games
Calgary Flames 7-8
National Hockey League · Pacific Division · 6th · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $FLAMES
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $FLAMES
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $FLAMES
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $FLAMES: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Calgary Flames bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Seattle Kraken 8-5-1
National Hockey League · Pacific Division · 3rd · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $KRAKEN
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $KRAKEN
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $KRAKEN
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $KRAKEN: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Seattle Kraken bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Calgary Flames at Seattle Kraken
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Final: Flames 1, Kraken 2. Bandwagon's model had the Kraken at 54% and projected Kraken 3.4, Flames 3.1; spread Kraken −0.5, total 6.5. Last read: Kalshi 55%, Polymarket 56% for the Kraken.