Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerLightning 74%
- Projected scoreLightning 4.0, Blackhawks 2.5
- Model spreadLightning −1.5 total 6.5
- Crowd's pick1 pick so far
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Chicago Blackhawks or Tampa Bay Lightning: the bandwagon
Be the first on the bandwagon
Axle 26–74Market 22–78
Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | CHI | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CHI– | TB– |
| Average win probability | CHI– | TB– |
| Longest scoring run | CHI– | TB– |
| Time leading | CHI– | TB– |
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | TB win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 10:21 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:21 PM ET | 74% | +1 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:46 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:46 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:23 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:13 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:53 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:43 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:56 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:45 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:44 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:56 PM ET | 73% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 9:46 PM ET | 72% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 4:51 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:56 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 73% | +3 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:48 AM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:44 PM ET | 70% | +1 |
| Oct 28, 11:14 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 69% | — |
- Ratings
- TB 1555 · CHI 1400
- Home spread
- −1.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 10:21 PM ET · 2026-11-05 03:21 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
- Last move
- home 73% → 74%
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Nov 4, 9:30 AM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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1 pick so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Blackhawks vs Lightning odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NHL marketKalshi prices the Lightning at 78%, Polymarket at 79% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 74%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | CHI | TB | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 22% | 78% | ||
| Polymarket | 21% | 79% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 26% | 74% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Lightning a 1.5-point favorite at home, with a 74% chance to win. The model total is 6.5. Ratings: Lightning 1555 (4th of 32), Blackhawks 1403 (31st). The Lightning are 9-3-2 in the Atlantic Division; the Blackhawks are 4-10-1 in the Central Division. The Lightning have won 2 of their last 5; the Blackhawks 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Lightning won 3, the Blackhawks 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Chicago Blackhawks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Florida Panthers | L 3–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Colorado Avalanche | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Boston Bruins | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Detroit Red Wings | L 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Los Angeles Kings | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Detroit Red Wings | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nashville Predators | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Winnipeg Jets | W 6–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Utah Mammoth | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Colorado Avalanche | L 3–6 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning at Chicago Blackhawks | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning | 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning | 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning at Chicago Blackhawks | 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning at Chicago Blackhawks | 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning | 5–3 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Chicago Blackhawks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Tampa Bay Lightning: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Blackhawks4-10-1 Central Division, 8th · L3
- Blackhawks rating1403 31st of 32, 15 games
- Lightning9-3-2 Atlantic Division, 3rd · W1
- Lightning rating1555 4th of 32, 14 games
Chicago Blackhawks 4-10-1
National Hockey League · Central Division · 8th · streak L3
1 stance today on $BLACKHAWKS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Chicago Blackhawks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Tampa Bay Lightning 9-3-2
National Hockey League · Atlantic Division · 3rd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $LIGHTNING: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Tampa Bay Lightning bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Lightning 74% to win. Projected score Lightning 4.0, Blackhawks 2.5; spread Lightning −1.5, total 6.5. Kalshi 78%, Polymarket 79% for the Lightning. Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning, Thu, Nov 5, 7:00 PM ET.