The Kings lead 5-3, but the model still has Sacramento at just 24 percent. Early scoring is mostly noise, and right now the numbers lean Lakers.
NBA · · Golden 1 Center · every National Basketball Association line
Los Angeles Lakers vs Sacramento Kings: final score and how the prediction did, November 4, 2026
- Final scoreLakers 116, Kings 103 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerLakers 76%
- Pregame Projected scoreLakers 120, Kings 113
- Model spreadLakers −6.5 total 233
- Margin13 projected 6.6
- Total219 projected 233
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Los Angeles Lakers or Sacramento Kings: the bandwagon
Bandwagon1 on the bandwagon so far
Be the first on the bandwagon
Axle 76–24Market 84–16
FinalPregame: SAC 24%Baseline: SAC 15.6% (−8.3)Big swing: 15.4 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAL | 28 | 33 | 26 | 29 | 116 |
| SAC | 28 | 26 | 20 | 29 | 103 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable−0.2 points for SAC over the last 5:00
Big swing15.4 ptstoward SAC at 2:59 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 5 points in the final quarter
BaselineSAC 15.6%game average, −8.3 points from the pregame 24.0%
Los Angeles Lakers vs Sacramento Kings live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | LAL | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | LAL35/78 | SAC35/90 |
| 3-pointers | LAL12/38 | SAC12/38 |
| Free throws | LAL34/38 | SAC21/28 |
| Rebounds | LAL38 | SAC46 |
| Assists | LAL20 | SAC23 |
| Turnovers | LAL12 | SAC18 |
| Steals | LAL11 | SAC6 |
| Blocks | LAL13 | SAC4 |
| Points in the paint | LAL34 | SAC40 |
| Fast-break points | LAL21 | SAC11 |
| Fouls | LAL23 | SAC24 |
| Largest lead | LAL18 | SAC8 |
Los Angeles Lakers vs Sacramento Kings team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | LAL | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAL116 | SAC103 |
| Average win probability | LAL84% | SAC16% |
| Longest scoring run | LAL+10 | SAC+6 |
| Time leading | LAL34:19 | SAC10:18 |
Los Angeles Lakers vs Sacramento Kings model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated 3 h ago
Lakers76%
Win chanceKings24%
SpreadLAL −6.5closing model spread
Total233
Moneyline−319away / +319homeaway / home
Line movementSAC win chance, 43 stored lines
+4 pts for SAC between Oct 28 and Nov 4
31%13%
Oct 28Nov 1Nov 4
Every stored line
| Stored | SAC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 11:46 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 11:46 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 11:36 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 11:06 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:26 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:21 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:00 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 9:30 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:59 AM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:54 AM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:39 AM ET | 24% | −1 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:09 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:04 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:41 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:32 PM ET | 25% | +3 |
| Nov 2, 10:02 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:40 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:00 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:51 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:07 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 22% | −3 |
| Oct 31, 10:36 PM ET | 25% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 12:56 AM ET | 26% | +2 |
| Oct 30, 10:26 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 9:36 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 24% | +6 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 18% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 18% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 2:00 AM ET | 18% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:06 AM ET | 18% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 12:41 AM ET | 20% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:09 AM ET | 20% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:54 PM ET | 20% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 20% | — |
- Ratings
- SAC 1322 · LAL 1599
- Home spread
- +6.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 11:46 PM ET · 2026-11-05 04:46 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Los Angeles Lakers 116, Sacramento Kings 103. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Nov 3, 10:02 AM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · 2 picks
Be the first on the bandwagon
LakersKings
Neutrals only–
LakersKings
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Kings–
2 picks so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Lakers vs Kings odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NBA marketKalshi had the Lakers at 84% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 84% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 76% when last read, .
| Source | LAL | SAC | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 84% | 16% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 84% | 16% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 76% | 24% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, SAC: −7Polymarket minus model, SAC: −7
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Los Angeles Lakers vs Sacramento Kings prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Lakers a 6.5-point favorite, with a 76% chance to win. The model total is 233. Ratings: Kings 1322 (25th of 30), Lakers 1599 (8th). The Kings are 1-6 in the Pacific; the Lakers are 6-2 in the Pacific. The Kings have won 1 of their last 5; the Lakers 4 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Kings won 1, the Lakers 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Los Angeles Lakers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Sacramento Kings | W 116–103 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Miami Heat | W 138–117 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Toronto Raptors | W 131–125 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Golden State Warriors | L 95–112 | – | – | matchup | |
| at LA Clippers | W 103–87 | – | – | matchup |
Sacramento Kings
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Los Angeles Lakers | L 103–116 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Dallas Mavericks | W 115–100 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Memphis Grizzlies | L 105–136 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New Orleans Pelicans | L 120–132 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Antonio Spurs | L 103–130 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers | 110–114 | – | – | matchup | |
| Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings | 127–103 | – | – | matchup | |
| Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers | 104–128 | – | – | matchup | |
| Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings | 112–124 | – | – | matchup | |
| Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers | 101–125 | – | – | matchup | |
| Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings | 127–120 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Los Angeles Lakers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Sacramento Kings: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Lakers6-2 Pacific, 5th · W2
- Lakers rating1599 8th of 30, 8 games
- Kings1-6 Pacific, 2nd · W1
- Kings rating1322 25th of 30, 7 games
National Basketball Association · Pacific · 5th · streak W2
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Be the first on the bandwagon1 stance so far today on $LAKERS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagon1 stance so far today on $LAKERS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $LAKERS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
1 stance today on $LAKERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Los Angeles Lakers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Sacramento Kings 1-6
National Basketball Association · Pacific · 2nd · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $KINGS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $KINGS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $KINGS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $KINGS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Sacramento Kings bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings
Sign in to post a take on $LAKERSKINGS261105: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Lakers 116, Kings 103. Bandwagon's model had the Lakers at 76% and projected Lakers 120, Kings 113; spread Lakers −6.5, total 233. Last read: Kalshi 84%, Polymarket 84% for the Lakers.