The Kings lead 7-2 with 8:24 left in the first, but the model still has Memphis at 67 percent. A five-point margin this early is small, and the numbers favor the Grizzlies right now.
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Sacramento Kings vs Memphis Grizzlies: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreKings 105, Grizzlies 136 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerGrizzlies 67%
- Pregame Projected scoreGrizzlies 118, Kings 112
- Model spreadGrizzlies −6.5 total 229.5
- Margin31 projected 6.5
- Total241 projected 229.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Sacramento Kings or Memphis Grizzlies: the bandwagon
Axle 33–67Market 27–73
FinalPregame: MEM 67%Baseline: MEM 90.0% (+23.2)Big swing: 27.8 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAC | 21 | 34 | 25 | 25 | 105 |
| MEM | 27 | 39 | 42 | 28 | 136 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for MEM over the last 5:00
Big swing27.8 ptstoward SAC at 3:01 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 5 points in the final quarter
BaselineMEM 90.0%game average, +23.2 points from the pregame 66.9%
Sacramento Kings vs Memphis Grizzlies live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | SAC | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | SAC35/86 | MEM47/85 |
| 3-pointers | SAC11/38 | MEM19/38 |
| Free throws | SAC24/29 | MEM23/27 |
| Rebounds | SAC33 | MEM45 |
| Assists | SAC25 | MEM30 |
| Turnovers | SAC16 | MEM17 |
| Steals | SAC9 | MEM5 |
| Blocks | SAC3 | MEM6 |
| Points in the paint | SAC36 | MEM54 |
| Fast-break points | SAC13 | MEM25 |
| Fouls | SAC24 | MEM26 |
| Largest lead | SAC7 | MEM34 |
Sacramento Kings vs Memphis Grizzlies team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | SAC | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SAC105 | MEM136 |
| Average win probability | SAC10% | MEM90% |
| Longest scoring run | SAC+8 | MEM+13 |
| Time leading | SAC1:30 | MEM41:00 |
Sacramento Kings vs Memphis Grizzlies model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET
Kings33%
Win chanceGrizzlies67%
SpreadMEM −6.5closing model spread
Total229.5
Moneyline+202away / −202homeaway / home
Line movementMEM win chance, 15 stored lines
+4 pts for MEM between Oct 28 and Oct 31
72%57%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | MEM win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 10:26 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 9:36 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 12:20 AM ET | 67% | +4 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 2:00 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:06 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:41 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:09 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:54 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 63% | — |
- Ratings
- MEM 1397 · SAC 1304
- Home spread
- −6.5
- Stored
- Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET · 2026-10-31 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Sacramento Kings 105, Memphis Grizzlies 136. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 29, 10:38 PM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · 1 pick
Be the first on the bandwagon
KingsGrizzlies
Neutrals only–
KingsGrizzlies
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Grizzlies–
1 pick so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Kings vs Grizzlies odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NBA marketKalshi had the Grizzlies at 73% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 74% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 67% when last read, ; the two venues were 1 point apart at those reads.
| Source | SAC | MEM | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 27% | 73% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 26% | 74% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 33% | 67% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, MEM: +6Polymarket minus model, MEM: +7
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Sacramento Kings vs Memphis Grizzlies prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Grizzlies a 6.5-point favorite at home, with a 67% chance to win. The model total is 229.5. Ratings: Grizzlies 1405 (23rd of 30), Kings 1322 (25th). The Grizzlies are 6-1 in the Southwest; the Kings are 1-6 in the Pacific. The Grizzlies have won 3 of their last 5; the Kings 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Grizzlies won 4, the Kings 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Sacramento Kings
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Dallas Mavericks | W 115–100 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Memphis Grizzlies | L 105–136 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New Orleans Pelicans | L 120–132 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Antonio Spurs | L 103–130 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Memphis Grizzlies | L 112–123 | – | – | matchup |
Memphis Grizzlies
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Indiana Pacers | L 103–107 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Orleans Pelicans | L 134–135 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sacramento Kings | W 136–105 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Portland Trail Blazers | W 124–103 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Utah Jazz | W 110–105 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis Grizzlies at Sacramento Kings | 123–112 | – | – | matchup | |
| Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies | 123–114 | – | – | matchup | |
| Memphis Grizzlies at Sacramento Kings | 129–125 | – | – | matchup | |
| Memphis Grizzlies at Sacramento Kings | 115–107 | – | – | matchup | |
| Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies | 96–137 | – | – | matchup | |
| Memphis Grizzlies at Sacramento Kings | 122–132 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Sacramento Kings: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Memphis Grizzlies: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Kings1-6 Pacific, 2nd · W1
- Kings rating1322 25th of 30, 7 games
- Grizzlies6-1 Southwest, 4th · L1
- Grizzlies rating1405 23rd of 30, 7 games
Sacramento Kings 1-6
National Basketball Association · Pacific · 2nd · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $KINGS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $KINGS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $KINGS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $KINGS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Sacramento Kings bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
National Basketball Association · Southwest · 4th · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $GRIZZLIES
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $GRIZZLIES
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $GRIZZLIES
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $GRIZZLIES: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Memphis Grizzlies bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies
Sign in to post a take on $KINGSGRIZZLIES261101: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Kings 105, Grizzlies 136. Bandwagon's model had the Grizzlies at 67% and projected Grizzlies 118, Kings 112; spread Grizzlies −6.5, total 229.5. Last read: Kalshi 73%, Polymarket 74% for the Grizzlies.