North Texas Mean Green vs San Diego State Aztecs prediction, odds and picks, November 5, 2026
- Projected winnerSan Diego State 73%
- Projected scoreSan Diego State 70, North Texas 60
- Model spreadSan Diego State −9.5 total 130.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
North Texas Mean Green or San Diego State Aztecs: the bandwagon
Axle 27–73Market –
North Texas Mean Green at San Diego State Aztecs win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
North Texas Mean Green vs San Diego State Aztecs live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
North Texas Mean Green vs San Diego State Aztecs team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | UNT | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UNT– | SDSU– |
| Average win probability | UNT– | SDSU– |
| Longest scoring run | UNT– | SDSU– |
| Time leading | UNT– | SDSU– |
North Texas Mean Green vs San Diego State Aztecs odds
Every stored line
| Stored | SDSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2:15 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 2:15 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:03 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:53 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:43 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:03 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:19 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:41 PM ET | 73% | +1 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:26 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:51 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:21 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:01 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:51 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:12 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:58 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:47 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:08 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:02 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:20 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:46 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:16 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:11 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 72% | −2 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 74% | +11 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 63% | — |
- Ratings
- SDSU 1639 · UNT 1569
- Home spread
- −9.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 2:15 PM ET · 2026-11-04 19:15 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
North Texas Mean Green vs San Diego State Aztecs prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Aztecs a 9.5-point favorite at home, with a 73% chance to win. The model total is 130.5. Ratings: Aztecs 1639 (48th of 356), Mean Green 1569 (103rd). The Aztecs are 1-0; the Mean Green are 1-0. The Aztecs have won 3 of their last 5; the Mean Green 2 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
North Texas Mean Green
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Rice Owls | L 67–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tulsa Golden Hurricane | W 76–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Florida Atlantic Owls | W 80–57 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Wichita State Shockers | L 55–60 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs South Florida Bulls | L 63–66 | – | – | matchup |
San Diego State Aztecs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Cal State Fullerton Titans | W 77–51 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Kansas Jayhawks | L 78–85 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs McNeese Cowgirls | W 56–41 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UC Irvine Anteaters | W 61–55 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Air Force Falcons | L 76–83 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
North Texas Mean Green: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
San Diego State Aztecs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Mean Green1-0 3rd · W1
- Mean Green rating1569 103rd of 356, 0 games
- Aztecs1-0 4th · W1
- Aztecs rating1639 48th of 356, 1 games
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 3rd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $UNTWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the North Texas Mean Green bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 4th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $SDSUWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the San Diego State Aztecs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: San Diego State 73% to win. Projected score San Diego State 70, North Texas 60; spread San Diego State −9.5, total 130.5. North Texas Mean Green at San Diego State Aztecs, Thu, Nov 5, 2:00 PM ET.