Ball State Cardinals vs Massachusetts Minutemen prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerMassachusetts 52%
- Projected scoreMassachusetts 27, Ball State 26
- Model spreadMassachusetts −0.5 total 52.5
- Crowd's pick1 pick so far
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Ball State Cardinals or Massachusetts Minutemen: the bandwagon
Axle 48–52Market 42–59
Ball State Cardinals at Massachusetts Minutemen win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Ball State Cardinals vs Massachusetts Minutemen live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Ball State Cardinals vs Massachusetts Minutemen team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | BALL | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BALL– | MASS– |
| Average win probability | BALL– | MASS– |
| Longest scoring run | BALL– | MASS– |
| Time leading | BALL– | MASS– |
Ball State Cardinals vs Massachusetts Minutemen model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | MASS win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 52% | −4 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 56% | — |
- Ratings
- MASS 1257 · BALL 1302
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 10:02 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
1 pick so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Ball State vs Massachusetts odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Minutemen at 60%, Polymarket at 57% (3 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 52%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | BALL | MASS | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 41% | 60% | ||
| Polymarket | 43% | 57% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 48% | 52% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Ball State Cardinals vs Massachusetts Minutemen prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Minutemen a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 52% chance to win. The model total is 52.5. Ratings: Minutemen 1257 (132nd of 138), Cardinals 1302 (128th). The Minutemen have won 1 of their last 5; the Cardinals 2 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Ball State Cardinals
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Sacramento State Hornets | W 34–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bowling Green Falcons | W 32–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Northwestern Wildcats | L 14–45 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Toledo Rockets | L 24–39 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Kent State Golden Flashes | L 13–26 | – | – | matchup |
Massachusetts Minutemen
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at UConn Huskies | L 16–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Buffalo Bulls | L 18–25 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Miami (OH) RedHawks | L 19–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Eastern Michigan Eagles | L 14–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Sacramento State Hornets | W 35–6 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Ball State Cardinals: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Massachusetts Minutemen: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Cardinals– 8th · W2
- Cardinals rating1302 128th of 138, 7 games
- Minutemen– 6th · L4
- Minutemen rating1257 132nd of 138, 6 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 8th · streak W2
No stances yet today on $BALL: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Ball State Cardinals bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 6th · streak L4
No stances yet today on $MASS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Massachusetts Minutemen bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Ball State Cardinals at Massachusetts Minutemen
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Model: Massachusetts 52% to win. Projected score Massachusetts 27, Ball State 26; spread Massachusetts −0.5, total 52.5. Kalshi 60%, Polymarket 57% for Massachusetts. Ball State Cardinals at Massachusetts Minutemen, Wed, Nov 4, 7:00 PM ET.