Portland Trail Blazers vs Phoenix Suns prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerTrail Blazers 59%
- Projected scoreTrail Blazers 116, Suns 114
- Model spreadTrail Blazers −1 total 230
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Portland Trail Blazers or Phoenix Suns: the bandwagon
Axle 59–41Market 58–42
Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Portland Trail Blazers vs Phoenix Suns live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Portland Trail Blazers vs Phoenix Suns team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | POR | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Score | POR– | PHX– |
| Average win probability | POR– | PHX– |
| Longest scoring run | POR– | PHX– |
| Time leading | POR– | PHX– |
Portland Trail Blazers vs Phoenix Suns model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | PHX win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:59 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:54 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:39 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 41% | −1 |
| Nov 2, 11:09 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:04 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:41 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:32 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:07 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:02 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:40 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:00 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:51 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:07 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 42% | −8 |
| Oct 31, 5:31 PM ET | 50% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 12:36 AM ET | 51% | −2 |
| Oct 30, 10:26 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 9:36 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 12:20 AM ET | 53% | +4 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 49% | +3 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 2:00 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:06 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:41 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:09 AM ET | 46% | +1 |
| Oct 28, 11:54 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 45% | — |
- Ratings
- PHX 1486 · POR 1562
- Home spread
- +1
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 31, 11:30 PM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Trail Blazers vs Suns odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NBA marketKalshi prices the Trail Blazers at 57%, Polymarket at 59% (2 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 59%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | POR | PHX | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 57% | 43% | ||
| Polymarket | 59% | 42% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 59% | 41% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Portland Trail Blazers vs Phoenix Suns prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Trail Blazers a 1-point favorite, with a 59% chance to win. The model total is 230. Ratings: Suns 1486 (18th of 30), Trail Blazers 1562 (12th). The Suns are 1-3 in the Pacific; the Trail Blazers are 4-1 in the Northwest. The Suns have won 1 of their last 5; the Trail Blazers 4 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Suns won 2, the Trail Blazers 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Portland Trail Blazers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Denver Nuggets | W 118–110 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Utah Jazz | W 112–90 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Memphis Grizzlies | L 103–124 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Los Angeles Lakers | W 136–129 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Sacramento Kings | W 128–120 | – | – | matchup |
Phoenix Suns
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Golden State Warriors | L 113–116 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Denver Nuggets | L 120–127 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Oklahoma City Thunder | L 114–125 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Golden State Warriors | W 131–122 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Portland Trail Blazers | L 83–124 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Suns at Portland Trail Blazers | 83–124 | – | – | matchup | |
| Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns | 114–110 | – | – | matchup | |
| Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns | 92–77 | – | – | matchup | |
| Phoenix Suns at Portland Trail Blazers | 130–125 | – | – | matchup | |
| Phoenix Suns at Portland Trail Blazers | 127–110 | – | – | matchup | |
| Phoenix Suns at Portland Trail Blazers | 119–121 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Portland Trail Blazers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Phoenix Suns: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Trail Blazers4-1 Northwest, 5th · W1
- Trail Blazers rating1562 12th of 30, 6 games
- Suns1-3 Pacific, 3rd · L2
- Suns rating1486 18th of 30, 5 games
National Basketball Association · Northwest · 5th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $TRAILBLAZERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Portland Trail Blazers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Phoenix Suns 1-3
National Basketball Association · Pacific · 3rd · streak L2
No stances yet today on $SUNS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Phoenix Suns bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Trail Blazers 59% to win. Projected score Trail Blazers 116, Suns 114; spread Trail Blazers −1, total 230. Kalshi 57%, Polymarket 59% for the Trail Blazers. Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns, Wed, Nov 4, 9:00 PM ET.