Portland Trail Blazers vs Denver Nuggets: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreTrail Blazers 118, Nuggets 110 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerNuggets 58%
- Pregame Projected scoreNuggets 116, Trail Blazers 113
- Model spreadNuggets −4 total 229
- Margin8 projected 3.8
- Total228 projected 229
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Portland Trail Blazers or Denver Nuggets: the bandwagon
Axle 42–58Market 40–61
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR | 19 | 39 | 27 | 33 | 118 |
| DEN | 31 | 35 | 21 | 23 | 110 |
Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Portland Trail Blazers vs Denver Nuggets live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | POR | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | POR43/92 | DEN36/77 |
| 3-pointers | POR15/41 | DEN9/26 |
| Free throws | POR17/21 | DEN29/34 |
| Rebounds | POR53 | DEN37 |
| Assists | POR30 | DEN24 |
| Turnovers | POR16 | DEN12 |
| Steals | POR3 | DEN13 |
| Blocks | POR5 | DEN3 |
| Points in the paint | POR54 | DEN44 |
| Fast-break points | POR13 | DEN15 |
| Fouls | POR25 | DEN20 |
| Largest lead | POR9 | DEN14 |
Portland Trail Blazers vs Denver Nuggets team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | POR | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Score | POR118 | DEN110 |
| Average win probability | POR41% | DEN59% |
| Longest scoring run | POR+8 | DEN+4 |
| Time leading | POR8:31 | DEN15:23 |
Portland Trail Blazers vs Denver Nuggets model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | DEN win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 10:41 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:41 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:32 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:07 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:02 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:40 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:00 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:07 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 58% | −4 |
| Oct 31, 5:31 PM ET | 62% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 12:36 AM ET | 63% | +1 |
| Oct 30, 10:26 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 9:36 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 12:20 AM ET | 62% | +4 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 58% | +2 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 2:00 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:06 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:41 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:09 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:54 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 56% | — |
- Ratings
- DEN 1593 · POR 1544
- Home spread
- −4
- Stored
- Nov 2, 10:41 PM ET · 2026-11-03 03:41 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Portland Trail Blazers 118, Denver Nuggets 110. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 31, 5:30 AM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Trail Blazers vs Nuggets odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NBA marketKalshi had the Nuggets at 61% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 61% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 58% when last read, .
| Source | POR | DEN | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 40% | 61% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 40% | 61% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 42% | 58% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Portland Trail Blazers vs Denver Nuggets prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Nuggets a 4-point favorite at home, with a 58% chance to win. The model total is 229. Ratings: Nuggets 1575 (11th of 30), Trail Blazers 1562 (12th). The Nuggets are 3-2 in the Northwest; the Trail Blazers are 4-1 in the Northwest. The Nuggets have won 3 of their last 5; the Trail Blazers 4 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Nuggets won 4, the Trail Blazers 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Portland Trail Blazers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Denver Nuggets | W 118–110 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Utah Jazz | W 112–90 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Memphis Grizzlies | L 103–124 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Los Angeles Lakers | W 136–129 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Sacramento Kings | W 128–120 | – | – | matchup |
Denver Nuggets
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Portland Trail Blazers | L 110–118 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Phoenix Suns | W 127–120 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New Orleans Pelicans | W 104–91 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Golden State Warriors | L 114–134 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Orleans Pelicans | W 141–135 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets | 132–137 | – | – | matchup | |
| Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets | 112–128 | – | – | matchup | |
| Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers | 157–103 | – | – | matchup | |
| Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers | 107–109 | – | – | matchup | |
| Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers | 109–128 | – | – | matchup | |
| Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets | 121–132 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Portland Trail Blazers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Denver Nuggets: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Trail Blazers4-1 Northwest, 5th · W1
- Trail Blazers rating1562 12th of 30, 6 games
- Nuggets3-2 Northwest, 2nd · W2
- Nuggets rating1575 11th of 30, 6 games
National Basketball Association · Northwest · 5th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $TRAILBLAZERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Portland Trail Blazers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Denver Nuggets 3-2
National Basketball Association · Northwest · 2nd · streak W2
No stances yet today on $NUGGETS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Denver Nuggets bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Final: Trail Blazers 118, Nuggets 110. Bandwagon's model had the Nuggets at 58% and projected Nuggets 116, Trail Blazers 113; spread Nuggets −4, total 229. Last read: Kalshi 61%, Polymarket 61% for the Nuggets.