Minnesota Timberwolves vs Houston Rockets prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerRockets 61%
- Projected scoreRockets 116, Timberwolves 111
- Model spreadRockets −4.5 total 227
- Crowd's pick1 pick so far
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Minnesota Timberwolves or Houston Rockets: the bandwagon
Axle 39–61Market 28–72
Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Houston Rockets live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Houston Rockets team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | MIN | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN– | HOU– |
| Average win probability | MIN– | HOU– |
| Longest scoring run | MIN– | HOU– |
| Time leading | MIN– | HOU– |
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Houston Rockets model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | HOU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:59 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:54 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:39 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:04 PM ET | 61% | +2 |
| Nov 2, 10:41 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:32 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:07 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:02 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:40 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:51 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:07 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 59% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 60% | +3 |
| Oct 31, 10:31 PM ET | 57% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 10:51 PM ET | 56% | −2 |
| Oct 30, 10:26 PM ET | 58% | −1 |
| Oct 30, 9:36 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 2:00 AM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:06 AM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:41 AM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:09 AM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:54 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 59% | — |
- Ratings
- HOU 1652 · MIN 1614
- Home spread
- −4.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Nov 3, 10:02 AM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
1 pick so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Timberwolves vs Rockets odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NBA marketKalshi prices the Rockets at 72%, Polymarket at 72%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 61%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | MIN | HOU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 28% | 72% | ||
| Polymarket | 28% | 72% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 39% | 61% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Houston Rockets prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Rockets a 4.5-point favorite at home, with a 61% chance to win. The model total is 227. Ratings: Rockets 1652 (5th of 30), Timberwolves 1614 (7th). The Rockets are 6-1 in the Southwest; the Timberwolves are 4-3 in the Northwest. The Rockets have won 4 of their last 5; the Timberwolves 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Rockets won 2, the Timberwolves 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Minnesota Timberwolves
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Milwaukee Bucks | W 112–100 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Antonio Spurs | L 111–121 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs LA Clippers | W 127–101 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Golden State Warriors | L 114–119 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Cleveland Cavaliers | L 125–127 | – | – | matchup |
Houston Rockets
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Boston Celtics | W 109–93 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Oklahoma City Thunder | W 119–98 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Dallas Mavericks | L 111–116 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Milwaukee Bucks | W 132–100 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Atlanta Hawks | W 120–110 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets | 136–132 | – | – | matchup | |
| Houston Rockets at Minnesota Timberwolves | 108–110 | – | – | matchup | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets | 105–110 | – | – | matchup | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets | 115–121 | – | – | matchup | |
| Houston Rockets at Minnesota Timberwolves | 114–127 | – | – | matchup | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets | 113–112 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Minnesota Timberwolves: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Houston Rockets: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Timberwolves4-3 Northwest, 3rd · L1
- Timberwolves rating1614 7th of 30, 8 games
- Rockets6-1 Southwest, 4th · W1
- Rockets rating1652 5th of 30, 8 games
National Basketball Association · Northwest · 3rd · streak L1
No stances yet today on $TIMBERWOLVES: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Minnesota Timberwolves bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Houston Rockets 6-1
National Basketball Association · Southwest · 4th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $ROCKETS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Houston Rockets bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets
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Model: Rockets 61% to win. Projected score Rockets 116, Timberwolves 111; spread Rockets −4.5, total 227. Kalshi 72%, Polymarket 72% for the Rockets. Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets, Wed, Nov 4, 8:30 PM ET.