The Spurs have the early edge at the Frost Bank Center, up 6-2 with the first nine minutes still on the clock. Our model gives San Antonio a 67 percent chance right now, and the crowd has not weighed in yet.
NBA · · Frost Bank Center · every National Basketball Association line
Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreTimberwolves 111, Spurs 121 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerSpurs 67%
- Pregame Projected scoreSpurs 117, Timberwolves 111
- Model spreadSpurs −6.5 total 228
- Margin10 projected 6.5
- Total232 projected 228
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Minnesota Timberwolves or San Antonio Spurs: the bandwagon
Axle 33–67Market 16–84
FinalPregame: SA 67%Baseline: SA 80.0% (+13.0)Big swing: 21.7 ptsClutch window: 2:21
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 28 | 33 | 27 | 23 | 111 |
| SA | 34 | 26 | 33 | 28 | 121 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
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Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to SA+5.4 points for SA over the last 5:00
Big swing21.7 ptstoward MIN at 24:00 of game time
Clutch window2:21within 5 points in the final quarter
BaselineSA 80.0%game average, +13.0 points from the pregame 67.0%
Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | MIN | SA |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | MIN40/93 | SA43/87 |
| 3-pointers | MIN9/33 | SA10/27 |
| Free throws | MIN22/26 | SA25/31 |
| Rebounds | MIN38 | SA49 |
| Assists | MIN23 | SA24 |
| Turnovers | MIN14 | SA16 |
| Steals | MIN11 | SA6 |
| Blocks | MIN2 | SA9 |
| Points in the paint | MIN52 | SA60 |
| Fast-break points | MIN20 | SA13 |
| Fouls | MIN22 | SA20 |
| Largest lead | MIN7 | SA13 |
Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | MIN | SA |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN111 | SA121 |
| Average win probability | MIN20% | SA80% |
| Longest scoring run | MIN+14 | SA+8 |
| Time leading | MIN6:03 | SA39:31 |
Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET
Timberwolves33%
Win chanceSpurs67%
SpreadSA −6.5closing model spread
Total228
Moneyline+203away / −203homeaway / home
Line movementSA win chance, 14 stored lines
−3 pts for SA between Oct 28 and Oct 31
76%62%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | SA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 10:26 PM ET | 67% | −1 |
| Oct 30, 9:36 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 68% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 2:00 AM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:06 AM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:41 AM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:09 AM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:54 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 70% | — |
- Ratings
- SA 1713 · MIN 1618
- Home spread
- −6.5
- Stored
- Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET · 2026-10-31 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Minnesota Timberwolves 111, San Antonio Spurs 121. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 29, 10:38 PM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
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TimberwolvesSpurs
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Spurs–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Timberwolves vs Spurs odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NBA marketKalshi had the Spurs at 84% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 84% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 67% when last read, .
| Source | MIN | SA | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 16% | 84% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 16% | 84% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 33% | 67% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, SA: +16Polymarket minus model, SA: +16
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Spurs a 6.5-point favorite at home, with a 67% chance to win. The model total is 228. Ratings: Spurs 1721 (1st of 30), Timberwolves 1614 (7th). The Spurs are 5-2 in the Southwest; the Timberwolves are 5-3 in the Northwest. The Spurs have won 5 of their last 5; the Timberwolves 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Spurs won 4, the Timberwolves 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Minnesota Timberwolves
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Houston Rockets | W 117–107 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Milwaukee Bucks | W 112–100 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Antonio Spurs | L 111–121 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs LA Clippers | W 127–101 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Golden State Warriors | L 114–119 | – | – | matchup |
San Antonio Spurs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Utah Jazz | W 119–97 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Minnesota Timberwolves | W 121–111 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Utah Jazz | W 117–111 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sacramento Kings | W 130–103 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Dallas Mavericks | W 122–106 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves | 139–109 | – | – | matchup | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs | 97–126 | – | – | matchup | |
| San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves | 109–114 | – | – | matchup | |
| San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves | 115–108 | – | – | matchup | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs | 95–133 | – | – | matchup | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs | 104–102 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Minnesota Timberwolves: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
San Antonio Spurs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Timberwolves5-3 Northwest, 3rd · W1
- Timberwolves rating1614 7th of 30, 8 games
- Spurs5-2 Southwest, 3rd · W5
- Spurs rating1721 1st of 30, 7 games
National Basketball Association · Northwest · 3rd · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $TIMBERWOLVES
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $TIMBERWOLVES
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $TIMBERWOLVES
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $TIMBERWOLVES: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Minnesota Timberwolves bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
National Basketball Association · Southwest · 3rd · streak W5
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $SPURS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $SPURS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $SPURS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $SPURS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the San Antonio Spurs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs
Sign in to post a take on $TIMBERWOLVESSPURS261101: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Timberwolves 111, Spurs 121. Bandwagon's model had the Spurs at 67% and projected Spurs 117, Timberwolves 111; spread Spurs −6.5, total 228. Last read: Kalshi 84%, Polymarket 84% for the Spurs.