Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers vs UMBC Retrievers prediction, odds and picks, November 5, 2026
- Projected winnerUMBC 74%
- Projected scoreUMBC 70, Mount St. Mary's 60
- Model spreadUMBC −9.5 total 130.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers or UMBC Retrievers: the bandwagon
Axle 26–74Market –
Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers at UMBC Retrievers win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers vs UMBC Retrievers live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers vs UMBC Retrievers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | MSM | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MSM– | UMBC– |
| Average win probability | MSM– | UMBC– |
| Longest scoring run | MSM– | UMBC– |
| Time leading | MSM– | UMBC– |
Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers vs UMBC Retrievers odds
Every stored line
| Stored | UMBC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 10:00 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:00 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 8:05 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:13 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:38 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:23 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:58 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:43 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 7:58 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:34 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:41 PM ET | 74% | +1 |
| Nov 2, 10:18 PM ET | 73% | −1 |
| Nov 2, 10:13 PM ET | 74% | +1 |
| Nov 2, 9:58 PM ET | 73% | −1 |
| Nov 2, 9:46 PM ET | 74% | +1 |
| Nov 2, 9:26 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET | 73% | +3 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:51 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:06 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:56 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:12 PM ET | 70% | +1 |
| Nov 2, 6:47 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:58 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:02 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:46 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:16 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:06 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:01 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 12:31 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 69% | −3 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 72% | +9 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 63% | — |
- Ratings
- UMBC 1493 · MSM 1421
- Home spread
- −9.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 10:00 PM ET · 2026-11-05 03:00 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers vs UMBC Retrievers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Retrievers a 9.5-point favorite at home, with a 74% chance to win. The model total is 130.5. Ratings: Retrievers 1493 (181st of 356), Mountaineers 1421 (256th). The Retrievers are 1-0; the Mountaineers are 0-1. The Retrievers have won 3 of their last 5; the Mountaineers 2 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Retrievers won 0, the Mountaineers 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Navy Midshipmen | L 63–91 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Merrimack Warriors | L 48–62 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Rider Broncs | W 54–46 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sacred Heart Pioneers | W 66–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Canisius Golden Griffins | L 63–68 | – | – | matchup |
UMBC Retrievers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Marshall Thundering Herd | L 53–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Ohio Bobcats | W 62–58 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Vermont Catamounts | L 65–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs NJIT Highlanders | W 66–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UMass Lowell River Hawks | W 66–43 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMBC Retrievers at Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers | 57–63 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
UMBC Retrievers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Mountaineers0-1 7th · L1
- Mountaineers rating1421 256th of 356, 1 games
- Retrievers1-0 5th · W1
- Retrievers rating1493 181st of 356, 0 games
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 7th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $MSMWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
UMBC Retrievers 1-0
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 5th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $UMBCWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UMBC Retrievers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: UMBC 74% to win. Projected score UMBC 70, Mount St. Mary's 60; spread UMBC −9.5, total 130.5. Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers at UMBC Retrievers, Thu, Nov 5, 6:00 PM ET.