Gap: Axle minus the average of the markets shown, from the whole numbers above. Prices are devigged and under 24 hours old; up to 8 games. Markets are a comparison, never an input.
The record
Bandwagon Axle 2.0's win chances, graded against the final score from the last line stored before kickoff, beside the prediction markets' devigged price where one existed.
Straight up78%the favorite won, in 465 games; soccer favorites are the largest of home, draw and away
Brier score0.170.25 is a coin flip; lower is better
Calibration error7.8 ptsaverage gap between what Axle said and what happened
Against the market70 of 149games where Axle's chance for the result beat the market's (47%)
Last 7 days · favorite won
Day
Graded
Axle
With a market price
Axle on those
Markets on those
Wed, Nov 4
0
–
0
–
–
Tue, Nov 3
56
44 of 56 (79%)
13
6 of 13 (46%)
7 of 13 (54%)
Mon, Nov 2
232
189 of 232 (81%)
21
13 of 21 (62%)
11 of 21 (52%)
Sun, Nov 1
54
41 of 54 (76%)
21
13 of 21 (62%)
15 of 21 (71%)
Sat, Oct 31
96
73 of 96 (76%)
70
57 of 70 (81%)
55 of 70 (79%)
Fri, Oct 30
21
11 of 21 (52%)
16
8 of 16 (50%)
8 of 16 (50%)
Thu, Oct 29
6
3 of 6
6
3 of 6
4 of 6
7 days
465
361 of 465 (78%)
147
100 of 147 (68%)
100 of 147 (68%)
Graded the way the record page grades: the current version's lines only, decided games only where a draw is impossible, the market's last price from the 24 hours before kickoff. A rate is shown from 10 games. The tiles are recomputed nightly; the 7-day table is graded from stored games whenever the page is built.
How we compare lines
Devigging. A market's prices for a game's results add to a little over 100%. We divide each by their sum: yes prices of 56¢ and 47¢ sum to 103¢, so the chances are 54.4% and 45.6%. Prices are Kalshi's and Polymarket's (markets methodology); how the two differ for sports, in numbers.
The 24-hour rule. A price older than 24 hours is never shown or compared: markets move with news. A finished game is compared on each source's last price before kickoff.
A comparison, never an input. Axle 2.0 is built from game results and the inputs its methodology lists. It never reads a market price; a test in the build fails if the model's code names a market table.
Calibration. A 60% chance should come true about 6 times in 10. The record puts every graded game in one of ten buckets of the home side's chance and measures the gap between what Axle said and what happened (7.8 points on average, 465 games), plus the Brier score: 0.25 is a coin flip, lower is better.
Final: Carolina Hurricanes 1, Nashville Predators 4 (home win). Chance given to that result before kickoff: Axle 34.6%, Kalshi 34.5%, Polymarket 35.5%.
Ten things to know before you bet
Moneyline, spread and total
A moneyline is a bet on who wins. A spread hands the underdog points: −3.5 means the favorite must win by 4 or more. A total is the combined score, over or under a number. The moneyline to spread converter maps one to another.
American, decimal and fractional odds
−150 risks 150 to win 100; +130 wins 130 for 100. In decimal (the return per 1 staked) they are 1.67 and 2.30, as fractions 4/6 and 13/10. The odds converter turns any one into the others.
The vig
A book prices both sides so their chances add to more than 100%. At −110 each side implies 52.4%, together 104.8%: the 4.8% is the vig. The vig calculator shows it for any pair of prices.
Implied probability
Every price is a chance: −150 implies 60%, +130 implies 43.5%. Remove the vig and you have the price's own estimate, the number Bandwagon compares with Axle. The implied probability calculator converts it.
Parlays compound the vig
Every leg must win, so the chances multiply: four legs that each win half the time all win 6.25% of the time, and each leg's price carries the vig. The parlay calculator and the legs table show the arithmetic.
Line movement
A price moves when money or news moves it; a moved line says the market changed its mind, not what will happen. Axle's lines show how far each moved since the last update.
Home advantage
Teams win more at home, by an amount that differs by sport. Axle adds a home term per sport (the constants); a neutral-site game gets none.
Sample size and variance
A 60% favorite loses 4 times in 10, so ten games say little. Bandwagon quotes a league's record from 10 graded games and the overall rate from 50, games beside every percentage (the record).
Bankroll as a fraction
Stakes are often a share of a set bankroll. The Kelly calculator does that arithmetic but assumes you know the true chance, which nobody does; a wrong input gives too large a stake. The unit size calculator is plainer. Both are arithmetic, not a recommendation.
When to stop
Set a money and time limit before you start and keep to it; never chase a loss. If betting stops being entertainment, stop. Information for adults. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Sportsbooks
Partners
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission from these operators. Offers are theirs; Bandwagon's reviews are never paid for. 21+ (18+ where allowed) for sportsbooks; 18+ for prediction markets, where trading carries a risk of loss; 18+ (older in some states) for fantasy. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission · Prediction market
K
Kalshi
Regulator
CFTC
Withdrawals
Debit card: typically within a few hours. Bank transfer: a few business days (Kalshi help center, checked Nov 3, 2026).
Apps
iPhone, Web
Minimum age
18+
Available in AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, DC, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY. Check your state
Standard withdrawals: 48 to 72 hours (Underdog help center, checked Nov 3, 2026).
Apps
iPhone, Android
Minimum age
18+
Available in AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, DE, FL, GA, IL, IN, KS, KY, MN, MO, NE, NH, NM, NC, ND, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, DC, WV, WI, WY. Check your state
18+ (older in some states) · Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER · Terms
Bandwagon's own reviews, each fact measured or checked on the date shown. No review is paid for.
FanDuel
A state-licensed sportsbook offered in 24 states, D.C. and Puerto Rico, per FanDuel's availability page (checked Nov 3, 2026). Minimum age 21, or 18 in D.C., Wyoming and Puerto Rico.
Payout speedDebit card, PayPal and Venmo: within 24 hours. Online banking: up to 5 business days (FanDuel support, checked Nov 3, 2026).
PlatformsiPhone, Android
Legal age21+
Licensed inAZ, AR, CO, CT, DC, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, MD, MA, MI, MO, NJ, NY, NC, OH, PA, PR, TN, VT, VA, WV, WY
Responsible gamingfanduel.com/rg/sportsbook
ReviewedNovember 3, 2026
Where betting is legal
Online sports betting is legal in 32 of the 51 states and districts below, in person only in 6, and not legal in 11; 2 are not confirmed by an official page. Each row links its official source with the date checked; a figure that page does not state links its own, marked s. A dash: none, or not confirmed.
First legal wager is the year the first legal sports bet, online or in person, was taken under the state's current law. Laws change. Verify with your state's regulator before you rely on any row.
How to get started
Check the law and the age where you are: the table above links each state's regulator.
Know the cost: the vig on a single bet, and how a parlay multiplies it.
Set a money and time limit before you start, and treat the money as spent. The unit size calculator turns a limit into a stake.
Do the arithmetic before, not after: every tool is on the calculators page. Information for adults. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
How ratings are assigned
If Bandwagon reviews a sportsbook, the review is a set of measurements, each with the date it was taken:
Payout speed, measured. We request a withdrawal and record how long it took to arrive, by method.
License, verified. Each state listed is checked on that state regulator's own page.
Prices, compared. The operator's devigged prices against the median of the prediction markets' devigged prices on the same games over 30 days, reported as the average gap in points.
Support, tested. We ask a question through each channel and record the time to a useful answer.
1 operator has been reviewed this way. Ratings are never paid for.
Questions
How do I read American odds?
A minus number is what you risk to win 100 (−150 risks 150); a plus number is what 100 wins (+130 wins 130). Bandwagon's odds converter gives decimal, fractional and a percentage.
How do odds turn into a probability?
Minus price: divide it by itself plus 100 (150 / 250 = 60%). Plus price: divide 100 by the price plus 100 (100 / 230 = 43.5%). Without the vig the sides add to 100%.
What is the vig?
The margin in a pair of prices: how far their implied chances add past 100%. At −110 on both sides it is 4.8%.
What do Bandwagon's calculators do?
Arithmetic on the numbers you enter: odds, parlays, hedges, the vig, stake sizing and market prices. They do not recommend a bet.
What is Bandwagon Axle 2.0?
Bandwagon's own win-chance model, built from game results and the inputs its methodology lists, and graded in public against every final score.
Why compare the model with Kalshi and Polymarket?
The markets price the same games, so they are an independent check. The model never reads them; Bandwagon shows where they differ and how each did.
Is online sports betting legal in my state?
In 32 of the 51 states and districts in Bandwagon's table, each row linked to an official source. Laws change: check with your state's regulator.
Does Bandwagon take bets or have sportsbook partners?
Bandwagon takes no bets. It has affiliate partnerships with the operators shown under Partners and earns a commission from them; those cards are marked Ad. Reviews and ratings are never paid for, and nothing on Bandwagon is betting advice.
Before you go
Information for adults. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
This page is for people 18 or older, and older where your state's betting age is higher.
Bandwagon takes no wagers. Cards marked Ad are paid placements: Bandwagon earns a commission from those operators. Reviews, ratings and numbers are never paid for.
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. The state table was last checked .