Kalshi vs Polymarket for sports: how they differ, in numbers
In the last 30 days, 163 games had a stored pre-game price from both Kalshi and Polymarket. On the home side's win chance the two differed by a median of 0.3 points (mean 0.4); in 0 of 163 (0%) they differed by 5 points or more. Games are compared only when both venues' prices were read within 60 minutes of each other before kickoff, and games where one venue prices a draw and the other does not are left out. Of the 162 final games where each venue's favorite is defined, Kalshi's favorite won 111 of 162 (69%) and Polymarket's 112 of 162 (69%).
- Games priced by both163kicked off in the last 30 days
- Median gap0.3 ptshome side's win chance, Kalshi against Polymarket
- Mean gap0.4 ptsabsolute difference, same games
- 5 points or more0 of 163games where the two differed by 5+ points
How to read this page
Kalshi and Polymarket both list prices on sports. This page counts how those prices differ on the games Bandwagon stored them for, and prints what each venue's own pages and the CFTC say about access and fees. It does not rank the venues or advise on either. Markets are a comparison here and never an input to Bandwagon's model.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Kalshi vs Polymarket coverage: which leagues each venue priced
Leagues with a stored price from each venue in the last 30 days. Games are counted once per venue however many times its price moved; a game is "priced by both" only when each venue had a de-vigged price before kickoff. Season-long markets are titles and win totals that map to a team.
| League | Kalshi games | Polymarket games | Priced by both, started | Kalshi season-long | Polymarket season-long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 43 | 43 | 14 | 362 | 64 |
| College football | 166 | 178 | 53 | 53 | 16 |
| NBA | 71 | 143 | 39 | 342 | 30 |
| NHL | 91 | 142 | 44 | 32 | 32 |
| MLB | 0 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 2 |
| Premier League | 20 | 20 | 10 | 20 | 20 |
| La Liga | 10 | 10 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| Bundesliga | 9 | 9 | 0 | 18 | 18 |
| Serie A | 10 | 10 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| Ligue 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 18 | 18 |
| Champions League | 3 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 21 |
| MLS | 15 | 15 | 0 | 30 | 22 |
| NWSL | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 8 |
Kalshi vs Polymarket on cricket
Cricket is counted apart from the leagues above, because Bandwagon has no cricket teams or games. In the last 30 days Kalshi priced 20 cricket matches and Polymarket 15 cricket matches; 10 were priced by both, with the same two sides and start times within three hours of each other. Cricket markets on both venues.
Kalshi vs Polymarket on the UFC
UFC fights are counted apart from the leagues above, because a bout is not a game. In the last 30 days Kalshi priced 25 UFC fights and Polymarket 23 UFC fights; 23 were priced by both, paired by both fighters with the same bout. UFC odds
Kalshi vs Polymarket: the gap
The gap is the absolute difference, in percentage points, between the two venues' de-vigged probabilities for the home side to win, each a price stored before kickoff (at most 24 hours before it), for games that kicked off in the last 30 days, preseason left out. Games are compared only when both venues' prices were read within 60 minutes of each other before kickoff, and games where one venue prices a draw and the other does not are left out.
| League | Games | Median gap, pts | Mean gap, pts | 5 pts or more |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All leagues | 163 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 00% |
| College football | 53 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 00% |
| NHL | 44 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 00% |
| NBA | 39 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 00% |
| NFL | 14 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Premier League | 10 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Champions League | 3 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0 |
How each venue's favorite did against results
A venue's favorite is its most probable outcome for the game: the home side, the away side, or the draw where it priced one. Both venues are scored on the same 162 games: final games compared under the rule above, where neither venue's top outcomes tie exactly and the game did not end level in a sport with no draw.
| Venue | Favorite won | On games where the favorites differed |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 111 of 162 (69%) | 0 of 1 |
| Polymarket | 112 of 162 (69%) | 1 of 1 |
The venues named different favorites in 1 game of 162. The 30-day record, not a forecast.
The last 20 games both venues priced
Each venue's de-vigged probability for the home side to win, from the pair of pre-kickoff prices closest in time, with the time each price was read. Gap in percentage points. Newest kickoff first.
| Game | Kalshi, home win | Polymarket, home win | Gap, pts | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BET at DORChampions League · | 64.2% | 62.6% | 1.6 | DOR won 2–1 |
| COMO at RCLChampions League · | 24.4% | 24.1% | 0.2 | COMO won 9–1 |
| MNC at RBLChampions League · | 17.4% | 17.4% | 0.0 | MNC won 3–2 |
| ANA at VANNHL · | 37.5% | 37.5% | 0.0 | ANA won 5–4 |
| BUF at M-OHCollege football · | 69.5% | 69.5% | 0.0 | BUF won 34–31 |
| CAR at NSHNHL · | 33.8% | 35.5% | 1.7 | NSH won 4–1 |
| EDM at NJNHL · | 58.9% | 59.5% | 0.6 | NJ won 4–3 |
| COL at CBJNHL · | 47.5% | 47.5% | 0.0 | CBJ won 7–2 |
| STL at NYRNHL · | 53.0% | 53.5% | 0.5 | NYR won 3–1 |
| VGK at PITNHL · | 52.5% | 52.5% | 0.0 | VGK won 3–2 |
| WPG at MTLNHL · | 61.5% | 61.5% | 0.0 | WPG won 5–4 |
| UTAH at TORNHL · | 42.5% | 42.5% | 0.0 | UTAH won 3–2 |
| OHIO at AKRCollege football · | 17.5% | 17.5% | 0.0 | OHIO won 28–20 |
| DET at TBNHL · | 72.4% | 72.5% | 0.1 | TB won 4–2 |
| DAL at WSHNHL · | 50.0% | 51.5% | 1.5 | DAL won 6–5 |
| MIN at PHINHL · | 36.9% | 37.5% | 0.6 | MIN won 4–2 |
| MIA at LALNBA · | 55.9% | 55.5% | 0.4 | LAL won 138–117 |
| TOR at LACNBA · | 33.8% | 33.5% | 0.3 | TOR won 125–118 |
| PHX at GSNBA · | 57.5% | 56.5% | 1.0 | GS won 116–113 |
| CGY at SJNHL · | 51.8% | 51.5% | 0.3 | CGY won 2–1 |
Kalshi vs Polymarket: access and rules
What each venue's own pages, and CFTC documents, say about who regulates it, who can use it, how deposits work and what it charges. Checked Nov 3, 2026. A fact is here only if a primary source gives it. State availability is not: the eligibility pages linked below do not list US states (Kalshi's refers to its Member Agreement; Polymarket's cover countries and its two products). Both venues change their terms; each fact links its source.
| Fact | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Regulator | KalshiEX LLC was designated by the CFTC as a contract market in an order issued Nov 3, 2020.[1] | QCX LLC was designated by the CFTC as a contract market in an order issued Jul 9, 2025; the order names QCX LLC. The CFTC's filing records that QCX LLC operates under the assumed name Polymarket US, and Polymarket describes Polymarket US as a designated contract market and a derivatives clearing organization.[2][3][4] |
| Who can use it | Kalshi says people can trade from many countries, subject to its Member Agreement, and that signup asks for identity verification and country of residence.[5] | Two products. polymarket.com is for users outside the United States: Polymarket says US users cannot deposit funds or place trades there. The Polymarket US app is a separate product for users in the United States.[6] |
| How deposits work | Bank transfer (ACH), US users only. Debit card (Visa, Mastercard, Discover), open to users in the US and abroad. Wire transfer, US and international users. Crypto is also listed, for international users.[8][9][10] | Debit card, bank transfer (ACH), Apple Pay (iPhone), PayPal, Venmo, USDC (iPhone, where available) and wire transfer. Deposits must come from accounts in the user's own name.[11] |
| Deposit fees and limits | No fees for bank deposits or wire deposits. Debit card deposits may carry a 2% processing fee. Minimum deposit $10; wires under $1,000 are returned.[8][9][10] | The funding page lists a $50,000 daily limit for debit card and bank transfer deposits and a $5,000 minimum for wires. It lists no deposit fee.[11] |
| Trading fees | A transaction fee on the expected earnings on a contract. The Fees page says some markets have different fees and gives no rate for sports.[12] | Takers pay and makers are never charged. The fee table lists a Sports category with a taker rate of 0.05: fee = shares × rate × price × (1 − price). The page names no platform or league.[13] |
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Kalshi
- Regulator
- CFTC
- Withdrawals
- Debit card: typically within a few hours. Bank transfer: a few business days (Kalshi help center, checked Nov 3, 2026).
- Apps
- iPhone, Web
- Minimum age
- 18+
Available in AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, DC, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY. Check your state
Visit Kalshi (opens a new tab)18+ · Trading carries a risk of loss · Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER · Terms
Sources
- CFTC, Order of Designation, KalshiEX LLC, issued November 3, 2020
- CFTC, Order of Designation, QCX LLC, issued July 9, 2025
- CFTC, Designated Contract Market filing for QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US
- Polymarket US Documentation, What is Polymarket US?
- Kalshi Help Center, Can I trade on Kalshi from outside the United States?
- Polymarket Help Center, Website vs App
- Polymarket Help Center, Geographic Restrictions
- Kalshi Help Center, Bank Deposits
- Kalshi Help Center, Card Deposits
- Kalshi Help Center, How to Deposit Funds via Wire Transfer
- Polymarket US Documentation, Fund Your Account
- Kalshi Help Center, Fees
- Polymarket Help Center, Trading Fees (page dated July 10, 2026)
Prices, gaps and results above are Bandwagon's own stored data: the markets' public APIs, read as the methodology describes, and final scores from the games table.
Polymarket vs Kalshi for sports, in Bandwagon's stored prices: which leagues each venue priced, how far apart they were on the same games, how each venue's favorite did, and how access and fees differ.