Scoreless at 2:41 of the first, and the model has Toronto at 48 percent at home, a slight lean toward Utah that is well within noise. Watch whether the early shifts move that number by more than a point or two.
NHL · · Scotiabank Arena · every National Hockey League line
Utah Mammoth vs Toronto Maple Leafs: final score and how the prediction did, November 3, 2026
- Final scoreMammoth 3, Maple Leafs 2 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerMammoth 52%
- Model spreadeven total 7
- Margin1
- Total5 projected 7
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Utah Mammoth or Toronto Maple Leafs: the bandwagon
Axle 52–48Market 58–42
FinalPregame: TOR 48%Baseline: TOR 32.1% (−16.4)Big swing: 39.2 ptsClutch window: 20:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| TOR | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Shots
UTAH 36TOR 29
Utah Mammoth at Toronto Maple Leafs win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to UTAH−7.5 points for TOR over the last 5:00
Big swing39.2 ptstoward UTAH at 53:11 of game time
Clutch window20:00within 1 goals in the final period
BaselineTOR 32.1%game average, −16.4 points from the pregame 48.5%
Utah Mammoth vs Toronto Maple Leafs live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | UTAH | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | UTAH36 | TOR29 |
| Hits | UTAH22 | TOR23 |
| Blocked shots | UTAH17 | TOR13 |
| Power play | UTAH2/3 | TOR0/2 |
| Faceoff win | UTAH46.2% | TOR53.8% |
| Takeaways | UTAH0 | TOR7 |
| Giveaways | UTAH27 | TOR15 |
| Penalty minutes | UTAH4 | TOR6 |
Utah Mammoth vs Toronto Maple Leafs team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | UTAH | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTAH3 | TOR2 |
| Average win probability | UTAH68% | TOR32% |
| Longest scoring run | UTAH+1 | TOR+1 |
| Time leading | UTAH32:48 | TOR0:00 |
Utah Mammoth vs Toronto Maple Leafs model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET
Mammoth52%
Win chanceMaple Leafs48%
SpreadPKclosing model spread
Total7
Moneyline−106away / +106homeaway / home
Line movementTOR win chance, 20 stored lines
+2 pts for TOR between Oct 28 and Nov 3
54%40%
Oct 28Oct 31Nov 3
Every stored line
| Stored | TOR win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 48% | −1 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:45 PM ET | 49% | +1 |
| Nov 1, 6:41 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:44 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:56 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:46 PM ET | 48% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 47% | +2 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:48 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 45% | −1 |
| Oct 28, 11:44 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:14 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 46% | — |
- Ratings
- TOR 1476 · UTAH 1511
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-03 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Utah Mammoth 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 31, 5:30 PM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
MammothMaple Leafs
Neutrals only–
MammothMaple Leafs
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Maple Leafs–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Mammoth vs Maple Leafs odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NHL marketKalshi had the Mammoth at 58% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 58% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 52% when last read, .
| Source | UTAH | TOR | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 58% | 42% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 58% | 42% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 52% | 48% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, TOR: −6Polymarket minus model, TOR: −6
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Utah Mammoth vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Mammoth the favorite, with a 52% chance to win; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 7. Ratings: Maple Leafs 1473 (24th of 32), Mammoth 1515 (13th). The Maple Leafs are 8-7-2 in the Atlantic Division; the Mammoth are 10-6 in the Central Division. The Maple Leafs have won 2 of their last 5; the Mammoth 3 of their last 5. The two have met 5 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Maple Leafs won 3, the Mammoth 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Utah Mammoth
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Toronto Maple Leafs | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Philadelphia Flyers | L 3–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Pittsburgh Penguins | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Minnesota Wild | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Tampa Bay Lightning | W 5–4 | – | – | matchup |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Utah Mammoth | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Vancouver Canucks | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Seattle Kraken | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Calgary Flames | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Edmonton Oilers | W 7–2 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Maple Leafs at Utah Mammoth | 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs at Utah Mammoth | 1–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| Utah Mammoth at Toronto Maple Leafs | 3–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs at Utah Mammoth | 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Utah Mammoth at Toronto Maple Leafs | 2–3 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Utah Mammoth: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Toronto Maple Leafs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Mammoth10-6 Central Division, 2nd · W1
- Mammoth rating1515 13th of 32, 16 games
- Maple Leafs8-7-2 Atlantic Division, 6th · L1
- Maple Leafs rating1473 24th of 32, 17 games
Utah Mammoth 10-6
National Hockey League · Central Division · 2nd · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $MAMMOTH
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $MAMMOTH
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $MAMMOTH
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $MAMMOTH: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Utah Mammoth bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Toronto Maple Leafs 8-7-2
National Hockey League · Atlantic Division · 6th · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $LEAFS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $LEAFS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $LEAFS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $LEAFS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Toronto Maple Leafs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Utah Mammoth at Toronto Maple Leafs
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