The model has the Canucks at 42 percent at home, which puts the Maple Leafs at 58 after a 1-1 first period. No crowd picks are in yet, so the model is the only number on the board.
NHL · · Rogers Arena · every National Hockey League line
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Vancouver Canucks: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreMaple Leafs 4, Canucks 2 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerMaple Leafs 58%
- Pregame Projected scoreMaple Leafs 3.8, Canucks 3.3
- Model spreadMaple Leafs −0.5 total 7
- Margin2 projected 0.5
- Total6 projected 7
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Toronto Maple Leafs or Vancouver Canucks: the bandwagon
Axle 58–42Market 64–36
FinalPregame: VAN 42%Baseline: VAN 20.6% (−21.6)Big swing: 20.2 ptsClutch window: 9:19
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| VAN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Shots
TOR 28VAN 29
Toronto Maple Leafs at Vancouver Canucks win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to TOR−7.0 points for VAN over the last 5:00
Big swing20.2 ptstoward TOR at 23:47 of game time
Clutch window9:19within 1 goals in the final period
BaselineVAN 20.6%game average, −21.6 points from the pregame 42.2%
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Vancouver Canucks live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | TOR | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | TOR28 | VAN29 |
| Hits | TOR31 | VAN26 |
| Blocked shots | TOR21 | VAN13 |
| Power play | TOR0/2 | VAN1/4 |
| Faceoff win | TOR61.1% | VAN38.9% |
| Takeaways | TOR2 | VAN1 |
| Giveaways | TOR11 | VAN11 |
| Penalty minutes | TOR8 | VAN4 |
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Vancouver Canucks team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | TOR | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TOR4 | VAN2 |
| Average win probability | TOR79% | VAN21% |
| Longest scoring run | TOR+2 | VAN+1 |
| Time leading | TOR45:12 | VAN0:00 |
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Vancouver Canucks model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET
Maple Leafs58%
Win chanceCanucks42%
SpreadTOR −0.5closing model spread
Total7
Moneyline−137away / +137homeaway / home
Line movementVAN win chance, 11 stored lines
No move
48%36%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | VAN win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 12:29 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:48 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:44 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:14 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 42% | — |
- Ratings
- VAN 1392 · TOR 1472
- Home spread
- +0.5
- Stored
- Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET · 2026-10-31 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Vancouver Canucks 2. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 31, 5:30 AM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
Maple LeafsCanucks
Neutrals only–
Maple LeafsCanucks
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Canucks–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Maple Leafs vs Canucks odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NHL marketKalshi had the Maple Leafs at 64% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 64% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 58% when last read, .
| Source | TOR | VAN | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 64% | 36% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 64% | 36% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 58% | 42% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, VAN: −6Polymarket minus model, VAN: −6
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Vancouver Canucks prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Maple Leafs a 0.5-point favorite, with a 58% chance to win. The model total is 7. Ratings: Canucks 1385 (32nd of 32), Maple Leafs 1473 (24th). The Canucks are 3-13-1 in the Pacific Division; the Maple Leafs are 8-7-2 in the Atlantic Division. The Canucks have won 1 of their last 5; the Maple Leafs 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Canucks won 3, the Maple Leafs 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Utah Mammoth | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Vancouver Canucks | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Seattle Kraken | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Calgary Flames | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Edmonton Oilers | W 7–2 | – | – | matchup |
Vancouver Canucks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Anaheim Ducks | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Toronto Maple Leafs | L 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Jose Sharks | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Anaheim Ducks | W 6–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Minnesota Wild | L 2–4 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Maple Leafs at Vancouver Canucks | 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Vancouver Canucks at Toronto Maple Leafs | 0–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs at Vancouver Canucks | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Vancouver Canucks at Toronto Maple Leafs | 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs at Vancouver Canucks | 4–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| Vancouver Canucks at Toronto Maple Leafs | 2–5 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Toronto Maple Leafs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Vancouver Canucks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Maple Leafs8-7-2 Atlantic Division, 6th · L1
- Maple Leafs rating1473 24th of 32, 17 games
- Canucks3-13-1 Pacific Division, 8th · L3
- Canucks rating1385 32nd of 32, 17 games
Toronto Maple Leafs 8-7-2
National Hockey League · Atlantic Division · 6th · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $LEAFS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $LEAFS
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▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $LEAFS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Toronto Maple Leafs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Vancouver Canucks 3-13-1
National Hockey League · Pacific Division · 8th · streak L3
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $CANUCKS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $CANUCKS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $CANUCKS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $CANUCKS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Vancouver Canucks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Toronto Maple Leafs at Vancouver Canucks
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Final: Maple Leafs 4, Canucks 2. Bandwagon's model had the Maple Leafs at 58% and projected Maple Leafs 3.8, Canucks 3.3; spread Maple Leafs −0.5, total 7. Last read: Kalshi 64%, Polymarket 64% for the Maple Leafs.