Minnesota leads 2-0 after the first period, and the model has Philadelphia at 42 percent at home. A two-goal gap this early is a story, not noise, so watch whether the Flyers can cut it before the second.
NHL · · every National Hockey League line
Minnesota Wild vs Philadelphia Flyers: final score and how the prediction did, November 3, 2026
- Final scoreWild 4, Flyers 2 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerWild 58%
- Pregame Projected scoreWild 3.2, Flyers 2.8
- Model spreadWild −0.5 total 6
- Margin2 projected 0.4
- Total6 projected 6
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Minnesota Wild or Philadelphia Flyers: the bandwagon
Axle 58–42Market 63–37
FinalPregame: PHI 42%Baseline: PHI 11.8% (−30.6)Big swing: 28.6 ptsClutch window: 16:46
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| PHI | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Shots
MIN 22PHI 25
Minnesota Wild at Philadelphia Flyers win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to MIN−6.9 points for PHI over the last 5:00
Big swing28.6 ptstoward MIN at 5:18 of game time
Clutch window16:46within 1 goals in the final period
BaselinePHI 11.8%game average, −30.6 points from the pregame 42.4%
Minnesota Wild vs Philadelphia Flyers live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | MIN | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | MIN22 | PHI25 |
| Hits | MIN24 | PHI16 |
| Blocked shots | MIN16 | PHI17 |
| Power play | MIN0/3 | PHI1/3 |
| Faceoff win | MIN51.0% | PHI49.0% |
| Takeaways | MIN3 | PHI6 |
| Giveaways | MIN14 | PHI16 |
| Penalty minutes | MIN6 | PHI16 |
Minnesota Wild vs Philadelphia Flyers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | MIN | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN4 | PHI2 |
| Average win probability | MIN88% | PHI12% |
| Longest scoring run | MIN+3 | PHI+2 |
| Time leading | MIN54:38 | PHI0:00 |
Minnesota Wild vs Philadelphia Flyers model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET
Wild58%
Win chanceFlyers42%
SpreadMIN −0.5closing model spread
Total6
Moneyline−136away / +136homeaway / home
Line movementPHI win chance, 22 stored lines
No move
48%36%
Oct 28Oct 31Nov 3
Every stored line
| Stored | PHI win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:45 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:41 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:12 PM ET | 42% | −1 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:44 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:56 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:46 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:47 PM ET | 43% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:48 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:44 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:14 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 42% | — |
- Ratings
- PHI 1475 · MIN 1553
- Home spread
- +0.5
- Stored
- Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-03 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Minnesota Wild 4, Philadelphia Flyers 2. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 31, 5:30 PM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
WildFlyers
Neutrals only–
WildFlyers
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Flyers–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Wild vs Flyers odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NHL marketKalshi had the Wild at 63% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 63% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 58% when last read, .
| Source | MIN | PHI | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 63% | 37% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 63% | 37% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 58% | 42% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, PHI: −5Polymarket minus model, PHI: −5
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Minnesota Wild vs Philadelphia Flyers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Wild a 0.5-point favorite, with a 58% chance to win. The model total is 6. Ratings: Flyers 1471 (25th of 32), Wild 1557 (3rd). The Flyers are 4-9-4 in the Metropolitan Division; the Wild are 11-3-3 in the Central Division. The Flyers have won 1 of their last 5; the Wild 4 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Flyers won 5, the Wild 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Minnesota Wild
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Philadelphia Flyers | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington Capitals | W 5–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New York Islanders | L 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Utah Mammoth | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Vancouver Canucks | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup |
Philadelphia Flyers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Minnesota Wild | L 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah Mammoth | W 6–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington Capitals | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Columbus Blue Jackets | L 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Anaheim Ducks | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Flyers at Minnesota Wild | 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Minnesota Wild at Philadelphia Flyers | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Philadelphia Flyers at Minnesota Wild | 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Minnesota Wild at Philadelphia Flyers | 5–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| Philadelphia Flyers at Minnesota Wild | 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Minnesota Wild at Philadelphia Flyers | 2–6 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Minnesota Wild: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Philadelphia Flyers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Wild11-3-3 Central Division, 1st · W2
- Wild rating1557 3rd of 32, 17 games
- Flyers4-9-4 Metropolitan Division, 8th · L1
- Flyers rating1471 25th of 32, 17 games
Minnesota Wild 11-3-3
National Hockey League · Central Division · 1st · streak W2
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $WILD
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $WILD
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $WILD
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $WILD: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Minnesota Wild bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Philadelphia Flyers 4-9-4
National Hockey League · Metropolitan Division · 8th · streak L1
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $FLYERS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $FLYERS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $FLYERS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $FLYERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Philadelphia Flyers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Minnesota Wild at Philadelphia Flyers
Sign in to post a take on $WILDFLYERS261104: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Wild 4, Flyers 2. Bandwagon's model had the Wild at 58% and projected Wild 3.2, Flyers 2.8; spread Wild −0.5, total 6. Last read: Kalshi 63%, Polymarket 63% for the Wild.