Minnesota won 5-1 in Washington, a four-goal margin that ends the game on the scoreboard. The model had Washington at 52 percent at home, a two-point edge that was noise and did not hold.
NHL · · Capital One Arena · every National Hockey League line
Minnesota Wild vs Washington Capitals: final score and how the prediction did, November 1, 2026
- Final scoreWild 5, Capitals 1 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerCapitals 52%
- Model spreadeven total 6.5
- Margin4
- Total6 projected 6.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Minnesota Wild or Washington Capitals: the bandwagon
Axle 48–52Market 52–48
FinalPregame: WSH 52%Baseline: WSH 16.6% (−34.9)Big swing: 18.0 ptsClutch window: 17:37
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| WSH | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Shots
MIN 29WSH 27
Minnesota Wild at Washington Capitals win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to MIN−8.3 points for WSH over the last 5:00
Big swing18.0 ptstoward MIN at 3:42 of game time
Clutch window17:37within 1 goals in the final period
BaselineWSH 16.6%game average, −34.9 points from the pregame 51.5%
Minnesota Wild vs Washington Capitals live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | MIN | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | MIN29 | WSH27 |
| Hits | MIN22 | WSH24 |
| Blocked shots | MIN20 | WSH18 |
| Power play | MIN2/5 | WSH0/1 |
| Faceoff win | MIN43.1% | WSH56.9% |
| Takeaways | MIN4 | WSH3 |
| Giveaways | MIN13 | WSH14 |
| Penalty minutes | MIN2 | WSH20 |
Minnesota Wild vs Washington Capitals team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | MIN | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN5 | WSH1 |
| Average win probability | MIN83% | WSH17% |
| Longest scoring run | MIN+3 | WSH+1 |
| Time leading | MIN55:53 | WSH0:00 |
Minnesota Wild vs Washington Capitals model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET
Wild48%
Win chanceCapitals52%
SpreadPKclosing model spread
Total6.5
Moneyline+106away / −106homeaway / home
Line movementWSH win chance, 16 stored lines
+3 pts for WSH between Oct 28 and Nov 1
57%44%
Oct 28Oct 30Nov 1
Every stored line
| Stored | WSH win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:44 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:56 PM ET | 52% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 9:46 PM ET | 51% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:55 PM ET | 52% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 10:47 PM ET | 51% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 50% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:48 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:44 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:14 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 49% | — |
- Ratings
- WSH 1532 · MIN 1546
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET · 2026-11-01 10:02 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Minnesota Wild 5, Washington Capitals 1. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 29, 10:43 PM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · 1 pick
Be the first on the bandwagon
WildCapitals
Neutrals only–
WildCapitals
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Capitals–
1 pick so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Wild vs Capitals odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NHL marketKalshi had the Capitals at 48% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 47% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 52% when last read, ; the two venues were 1 point apart at those reads.
| Source | MIN | WSH | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 52% | 48% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 53% | 47% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 48% | 52% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, WSH: −3Polymarket minus model, WSH: −4
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Minnesota Wild vs Washington Capitals prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Capitals the favorite, with a 52% chance to win; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 6.5. Ratings: Capitals 1521 (12th of 32), Wild 1557 (3rd). The Capitals are 8-6 in the Metropolitan Division; the Wild are 11-3-3 in the Central Division. The Capitals have won 3 of their last 5; the Wild 4 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Capitals won 2, the Wild 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Minnesota Wild
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Philadelphia Flyers | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington Capitals | W 5–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New York Islanders | L 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Utah Mammoth | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Vancouver Canucks | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup |
Washington Capitals
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Dallas Stars | L 5–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Minnesota Wild | L 1–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nashville Predators | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Philadelphia Flyers | W 5–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Buffalo Sabres | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Capitals at Minnesota Wild | 0–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| Minnesota Wild at Washington Capitals | 1–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| Washington Capitals at Minnesota Wild | 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Minnesota Wild at Washington Capitals | 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Washington Capitals at Minnesota Wild | 3–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| Minnesota Wild at Washington Capitals | 2–3 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Minnesota Wild: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Washington Capitals: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Wild11-3-3 Central Division, 1st · W2
- Wild rating1557 3rd of 32, 17 games
- Capitals8-6 Metropolitan Division, 4th · L2
- Capitals rating1521 12th of 32, 14 games
Minnesota Wild 11-3-3
National Hockey League · Central Division · 1st · streak W2
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $WILD
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $WILD
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $WILD
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $WILD: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Minnesota Wild bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
National Hockey League · Metropolitan Division · 4th · streak L2
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $CAPITALS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $CAPITALS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $CAPITALS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $CAPITALS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Washington Capitals bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Minnesota Wild at Washington Capitals
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