Vegas Golden Knights vs Detroit Red Wings prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerGolden Knights 54%
- Projected scoreGolden Knights 3.3, Red Wings 3.2
- Model spreadeven total 6.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Vegas Golden Knights or Detroit Red Wings: the bandwagon
Axle 54–46Market 57–43
Vegas Golden Knights at Detroit Red Wings win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Vegas Golden Knights vs Detroit Red Wings live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Vegas Golden Knights vs Detroit Red Wings team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | VGK | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK– | DET– |
| Average win probability | VGK– | DET– |
| Longest scoring run | VGK– | DET– |
| Time leading | VGK– | DET– |
Vegas Golden Knights vs Detroit Red Wings model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | DET win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 10:21 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:21 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:46 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:46 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:23 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:13 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:53 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:43 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:56 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 46% | +1 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:45 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:44 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:56 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:46 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:36 PM ET | 45% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 8:41 PM ET | 46% | +1 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 45% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:48 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:44 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:14 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 44% | — |
- Ratings
- DET 1480 · VGK 1535
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Nov 4, 10:21 PM ET · 2026-11-05 03:21 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 31, 5:30 AM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Golden Knights vs Red Wings odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NHL marketKalshi prices the Golden Knights at 57%, Polymarket at 57%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 54%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | VGK | DET | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 57% | 43% | ||
| Polymarket | 57% | 43% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 54% | 46% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Vegas Golden Knights vs Detroit Red Wings prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Golden Knights the favorite, with a 54% chance to win; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 6.5. Ratings: Red Wings 1480 (22nd of 32), Golden Knights 1535 (8th). The Red Wings are 7-6-3 in the Atlantic Division; the Golden Knights are 10-5-2 in the Pacific Division. The Red Wings have won 3 of their last 5; the Golden Knights 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Red Wings won 2, the Golden Knights 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Vegas Golden Knights
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Pittsburgh Penguins | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Boston Bruins | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Jersey Devils | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ottawa Senators | W 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Columbus Blue Jackets | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
Detroit Red Wings
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Tampa Bay Lightning | L 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Florida Panthers | W 5–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs St. Louis Blues | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Chicago Blackhawks | W 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Edmonton Oilers | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vegas Golden Knights at Detroit Red Wings | 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Detroit Red Wings at Vegas Golden Knights | 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Detroit Red Wings at Vegas Golden Knights | 3–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| Vegas Golden Knights at Detroit Red Wings | 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Detroit Red Wings at Vegas Golden Knights | 3–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| Vegas Golden Knights at Detroit Red Wings | 2–5 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Vegas Golden Knights: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Detroit Red Wings: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Golden Knights10-5-2 Pacific Division, 2nd · W1
- Golden Knights rating1535 8th of 32, 17 games
- Red Wings7-6-3 Atlantic Division, 8th · L1
- Red Wings rating1480 22nd of 32, 16 games
Vegas Golden Knights 10-5-2
National Hockey League · Pacific Division · 2nd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $GOLDENKNIGHTS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Vegas Golden Knights bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Detroit Red Wings 7-6-3
National Hockey League · Atlantic Division · 8th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $REDWINGS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Detroit Red Wings bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Vegas Golden Knights at Detroit Red Wings
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Model: Golden Knights 54% to win. Projected score Golden Knights 3.3, Red Wings 3.2; spread even, total 6.5. Kalshi 57%, Polymarket 57% for the Golden Knights. Vegas Golden Knights at Detroit Red Wings, Thu, Nov 5, 7:00 PM ET.