Tampa Bay has the only goal so far, 1-0 early in the first period, and the model puts the Lightning at 63 percent at home. Crowd picks have not come in yet, so the model is the only number on the board.
NHL · · every National Hockey League line
Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning: final score and how the prediction did, November 3, 2026
- Final scoreRed Wings 2, Lightning 4 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerLightning 63%
- Pregame Projected scoreLightning 3.9, Red Wings 3.1
- Model spreadLightning −1 total 7
- Margin2 projected 0.8
- Total6 projected 7
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Detroit Red Wings or Tampa Bay Lightning: the bandwagon
Axle 37–63Market 27–73
FinalPregame: TB 63%Baseline: TB 86.9% (+23.9)Big swing: 15.9 ptsClutch window: 14:33
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| TB | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Shots
DET 21TB 27
Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to TB+6.5 points for TB over the last 5:00
Big swing15.9 ptstoward TB at 7:54 of game time
Clutch window14:33within 1 goals in the final period
BaselineTB 86.9%game average, +23.9 points from the pregame 63.0%
Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | DET | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | DET21 | TB27 |
| Hits | DET37 | TB21 |
| Blocked shots | DET23 | TB12 |
| Power play | DET1/4 | TB1/3 |
| Faceoff win | DET49.1% | TB50.9% |
| Takeaways | DET3 | TB5 |
| Giveaways | DET15 | TB15 |
| Penalty minutes | DET6 | TB8 |
Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | DET | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET2 | TB4 |
| Average win probability | DET13% | TB87% |
| Longest scoring run | DET+2 | TB+3 |
| Time leading | DET0:00 | TB52:02 |
Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET
Red Wings37%
Win chanceLightning63%
SpreadTB −1closing model spread
Total7
Moneyline+171away / −171homeaway / home
Line movementTB win chance, 21 stored lines
No move
70%57%
Oct 28Oct 31Nov 3
Every stored line
| Stored | TB win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 63% | −1 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:45 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:44 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:56 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:46 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:51 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:36 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 64% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:48 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:44 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:14 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 63% | — |
- Ratings
- TB 1552 · DET 1483
- Home spread
- −1
- Stored
- Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-03 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Detroit Red Wings 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Nov 3, 10:02 AM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · 1 pick
Be the first on the bandwagon
Red WingsLightning
Neutrals only–
Red WingsLightning
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Lightning–
1 pick so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Red Wings vs Lightning odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NHL marketKalshi had the Lightning at 73% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 73% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 63% when last read, .
| Source | DET | TB | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 27% | 73% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 27% | 73% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 37% | 63% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, TB: +9Polymarket minus model, TB: +9
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Lightning a 1-point favorite at home, with a 63% chance to win. The model total is 7. Ratings: Lightning 1555 (4th of 32), Red Wings 1480 (22nd). The Lightning are 9-3-2 in the Atlantic Division; the Red Wings are 7-6-3 in the Atlantic Division. The Lightning have won 2 of their last 5; the Red Wings 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Lightning won 4, the Red Wings 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Detroit Red Wings
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Tampa Bay Lightning | L 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Florida Panthers | W 5–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs St. Louis Blues | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Chicago Blackhawks | W 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Edmonton Oilers | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Detroit Red Wings | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nashville Predators | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Winnipeg Jets | W 6–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Utah Mammoth | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Colorado Avalanche | L 3–6 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning | 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning | 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings | 6–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning | 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings | 6–3 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Detroit Red Wings: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Tampa Bay Lightning: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Red Wings7-6-3 Atlantic Division, 8th · L1
- Red Wings rating1480 22nd of 32, 16 games
- Lightning9-3-2 Atlantic Division, 3rd · W1
- Lightning rating1555 4th of 32, 14 games
Detroit Red Wings 7-6-3
National Hockey League · Atlantic Division · 8th · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $REDWINGS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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No stances yet today on $REDWINGS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Detroit Red Wings bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Tampa Bay Lightning 9-3-2
National Hockey League · Atlantic Division · 3rd · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $LIGHTNING
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $LIGHTNING
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $LIGHTNING
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $LIGHTNING: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Tampa Bay Lightning bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning
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Final: Red Wings 2, Lightning 4. Bandwagon's model had the Lightning at 63% and projected Lightning 3.9, Red Wings 3.1; spread Lightning −1, total 7. Last read: Kalshi 73%, Polymarket 73% for the Lightning.