The model has Nashville at 41 percent at kickoff, which leaves Tampa Bay the edge. No crowd picks are in yet, so the first few minutes will show whether the crowd lands near that number.
NHL · · Bridgestone Arena · every National Hockey League line
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Nashville Predators: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreLightning 4, Predators 5 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerLightning 59%
- Pregame Projected scoreLightning 3.5, Predators 3.0
- Model spreadLightning −0.5 total 6.5
- Margin1 projected 0.5
- Total9 projected 6.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Tampa Bay Lightning or Nashville Predators: the bandwagon
Bandwagon1 on the bandwagon so far
Be the first on the bandwagon
Axle 59–41Market 63–37
Final · OTPregame: NSH 41%Baseline: NSH 38.5% (−3.0)Big swing: 30.9 ptsClutch window: 30:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | OT | 2OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| NSH | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Shots
TB 26NSH 33
Tampa Bay Lightning at Nashville Predators win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable−2.0 points for NSH over the last 5:00
Big swing30.9 ptstoward NSH at 47:26 of game time
Clutch window30:00within 1 goals in the final period
BaselineNSH 38.5%game average, −3.0 points from the pregame 41.5%
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Nashville Predators live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | TB | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | TB26 | NSH33 |
| Hits | TB19 | NSH17 |
| Blocked shots | TB24 | NSH15 |
| Power play | TB0/3 | NSH1/3 |
| Faceoff win | TB49.0% | NSH51.0% |
| Takeaways | TB3 | NSH2 |
| Giveaways | TB12 | NSH9 |
| Penalty minutes | TB6 | NSH6 |
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Nashville Predators team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | TB | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TB4 | NSH5 |
| Average win probability | TB62% | NSH38% |
| Longest scoring run | TB+2 | NSH+1 |
| Time leading | TB20:17 | NSH2:35 |
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Nashville Predators model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET
Lightning59%
Win chancePredators41%
SpreadTB −0.5closing model spread
Total6.5
Moneyline−141away / +141homeaway / home
Line movementNSH win chance, 11 stored lines
−2 pts for NSH between Oct 28 and Oct 31
48%36%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | NSH win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:55 PM ET | 41% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 42% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:48 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:44 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:14 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 43% | — |
- Ratings
- NSH 1471 · TB 1555
- Home spread
- +0.5
- Stored
- Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET · 2026-10-31 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Nashville Predators 5. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · The injury list is older than three daysplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · 1 pick
Be the first on the bandwagon
LightningPredators
Neutrals only–
LightningPredators
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Predators–
1 pick so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Lightning vs Predators odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NHL marketKalshi had the Lightning at 63% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 63% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 59% when last read, .
| Source | TB | NSH | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 63% | 37% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 63% | 37% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 59% | 41% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, NSH: −4Polymarket minus model, NSH: −4
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Nashville Predators prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Lightning a 0.5-point favorite, with a 59% chance to win. The model total is 6.5. Ratings: Predators 1482 (21st of 32), Lightning 1555 (4th). The Predators are 6-4-5 in the Central Division; the Lightning are 9-3-2 in the Atlantic Division. The Predators have won 3 of their last 5; the Lightning 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Predators won 1, the Lightning 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Detroit Red Wings | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nashville Predators | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Winnipeg Jets | W 6–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Utah Mammoth | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Colorado Avalanche | L 3–6 | – | – | matchup |
Nashville Predators
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Carolina Hurricanes | W 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Tampa Bay Lightning | W 5–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Washington Capitals | L 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New York Islanders | L 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Colorado Avalanche | W 6–2 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning at Nashville Predators | 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Nashville Predators at Tampa Bay Lightning | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Nashville Predators at Tampa Bay Lightning | 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning at Nashville Predators | 5–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Nashville Predators at Tampa Bay Lightning | 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning at Nashville Predators | 3–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Tampa Bay Lightning: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Nashville Predators: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Lightning9-3-2 Atlantic Division, 3rd · W1
- Lightning rating1555 4th of 32, 14 games
- Predators6-4-5 Central Division, 5th · W2
- Predators rating1482 21st of 32, 15 games
Tampa Bay Lightning 9-3-2
National Hockey League · Atlantic Division · 3rd · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $LIGHTNING
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $LIGHTNING
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $LIGHTNING
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $LIGHTNING: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Tampa Bay Lightning bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Nashville Predators 6-4-5
National Hockey League · Central Division · 5th · streak W2
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Be the first on the bandwagon1 stance so far today on $PREDATORS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagon1 stance so far today on $PREDATORS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $PREDATORS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
1 stance today on $PREDATORS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Nashville Predators bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Tampa Bay Lightning at Nashville Predators
Sign in to post a take on $LIGHTNINGPREDATORS261031: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Lightning 4, Predators 5. Bandwagon's model had the Lightning at 59% and projected Lightning 3.5, Predators 3.0; spread Lightning −0.5, total 6.5. Last read: Kalshi 63%, Polymarket 63% for the Lightning.