Vermont Catamounts vs Fairfield Stags prediction, odds and picks, November 5, 2026
- Projected winnerFairfield 61%
- Projected scoreFairfield 75, Vermont 71
- Model spreadFairfield −4.5 total 145.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Vermont Catamounts or Fairfield Stags: the bandwagon
Axle 39–61Market –
Vermont Catamounts at Fairfield Stags win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Vermont Catamounts vs Fairfield Stags live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Vermont Catamounts vs Fairfield Stags team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | UVM | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UVM– | FAIR– |
| Average win probability | UVM– | FAIR– |
| Longest scoring run | UVM– | FAIR– |
| Time leading | UVM– | FAIR– |
Vermont Catamounts vs Fairfield Stags odds
Every stored line
| Stored | FAIR win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:03 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:19 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:05 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:04 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:59 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:56 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:27 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:17 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:46 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:41 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:21 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 61% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 60% | −5 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- FAIR 1501 · UVM 1532
- Home spread
- −4.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Vermont Catamounts vs Fairfield Stags prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Stags a 4.5-point favorite at home, with a 61% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Stags 1501 (177th of 361), Catamounts 1532 (126th). The Stags are 0-0; the Catamounts are 0-1. The Stags have won 3 of their last 5; the Catamounts 3 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Stags won 1, the Catamounts 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Vermont Catamounts
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Iona Gaels | L 55–56 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UMBC Retrievers | L 59–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs NJIT Highlanders | W 63–54 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Bryant Bulldogs | W 77–57 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UAlbany Great Danes | W 69–56 | – | – | matchup |
Fairfield Stags
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Siena Saints | L 61–76 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Saint Peter's Peacocks | W 74–55 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Manhattan Jaspers | W 71–60 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers | L 47–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Siena Saints | W 72–58 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vermont Catamounts at Fairfield Stags | 66–67 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Vermont Catamounts: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Fairfield Stags: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Catamounts0-1 9th · L1
- Catamounts rating1532 126th of 361, 1 games
- Stags0-0 12th · -
- Stags rating1501 177th of 361, 0 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 9th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $UVMMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Vermont Catamounts bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Fairfield Stags 0-0
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 12th · streak -
No stances yet today on $FAIRMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Fairfield Stags bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Vermont Catamounts at Fairfield Stags
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Model: Fairfield 61% to win. Projected score Fairfield 75, Vermont 71; spread Fairfield −4.5, total 145.5. Vermont Catamounts at Fairfield Stags, Thu, Nov 5, 7:00 PM ET.