Vermont Catamounts vs Iona Gaels: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreVermont 55, Iona 56 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerIona 60%
- Pregame Projected scoreIona 75, Vermont 71
- Model spreadIona −4 total 145.5
- Margin1 projected 3.8
- Total111 projected 145.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Vermont Catamounts or Iona Gaels: the bandwagon
Axle 40–60Market –
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| UVM | 29 | 26 | 55 |
| IONA | 21 | 35 | 56 |
Vermont Catamounts at Iona Gaels win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Vermont Catamounts vs Iona Gaels live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | UVM | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | UVM19/53 | IONA22/57 |
| 3-pointers | UVM8/31 | IONA7/19 |
| Free throws | UVM9/12 | IONA5/12 |
| Rebounds | UVM39 | IONA34 |
| Assists | UVM9 | IONA9 |
| Turnovers | UVM15 | IONA13 |
| Steals | UVM9 | IONA9 |
| Blocks | UVM4 | IONA2 |
| Points in the paint | UVM22 | IONA30 |
| Fast-break points | UVM0 | IONA12 |
| Fouls | UVM13 | IONA16 |
| Largest lead | UVM10 | IONA3 |
Vermont Catamounts vs Iona Gaels team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | UVM | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UVM55 | IONA56 |
| Average win probability | UVM63% | IONA37% |
| Longest scoring run | UVM+8 | IONA+8 |
| Time leading | UVM33:50 | IONA2:28 |
Vermont Catamounts vs Iona Gaels odds
Every stored line
| Stored | IONA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:16 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:58 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 60% | +2 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 58% | −7 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- IONA 1493 · UVM 1534
- Home spread
- −4
- Stored
- Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET · 2026-11-03 02:01 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Vermont Catamounts 55, Iona Gaels 56. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Vermont Catamounts vs Iona Gaels prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Gaels a 4-point favorite at home, with a 60% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Gaels 1495 (185th of 361), Catamounts 1532 (126th). The Gaels are 1-0; the Catamounts are 0-1. The Gaels have won 3 of their last 5; the Catamounts 3 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Gaels won 3, the Catamounts 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Vermont Catamounts
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Iona Gaels | L 55–56 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UMBC Retrievers | L 59–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs NJIT Highlanders | W 63–54 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Bryant Bulldogs | W 77–57 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UAlbany Great Danes | W 69–56 | – | – | matchup |
Iona Gaels
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Vermont Catamounts | W 56–55 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sacred Heart Pioneers | L 80–91 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Manhattan Jaspers | W 69–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Rider Broncs | W 80–58 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Merrimack Warriors | L 86–88 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iona Gaels at Vermont Catamounts | 83–78 | – | – | matchup | |
| Vermont Catamounts at Iona Gaels | 59–62 | – | – | matchup | |
| Vermont Catamounts at Iona Gaels | 50–71 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Vermont Catamounts: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Iona Gaels: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Catamounts0-1 9th · L1
- Catamounts rating1532 126th of 361, 1 games
- Gaels1-0 1st · W1
- Gaels rating1495 185th of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 9th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $UVMMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Vermont Catamounts bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Iona Gaels 1-0
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 1st · streak W1
No stances yet today on $IONAMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Iona Gaels bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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