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Winnipeg Jets vs Tampa Bay Lightning: final score and how the prediction did, October 29, 2026

Bandwagon Axle 1.1 · Updated

Winnipeg Jets or Tampa Bay Lightning: the bandwagon

Bandwagon

Be the first on the bandwagon

Axle 35–65Market 33–67

FinalPregame: TB 65%Baseline: TB 83.3% (+17.8)Big swing: 20.3 ptsClutch window: 1:27
Record 5-8-3
4+36+1
Record 9-3-2
Score by period
Team123T
WPG1034
TB1416
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Shots
WPG 21TB 31

Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning win probability

Bandwagon's model
Last update: 3rdFetched at
Win probability for TB: 95 points, 65% at the start, 100% at the end.0%20%40%60%80%100%0:0020:0040:0060:00TB 100%WPG 0%Market 67%
Win probability for TB: 95 points, 65% at the start, 100% at the end.0%20%40%60%80%100%0:0020:0040:0060:00TB 100%WPG 0%Market 67%

Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.

How this line is computed

The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.

MomentumStable+0.5 points for TB over the last 5:00
Big swing20.3 ptstoward TB at 30:11 of game time
Clutch window1:27within 1 goals in the final period
BaselineTB 83.3%game average, +17.8 points from the pregame 65.5%

Winnipeg Jets vs Tampa Bay Lightning live stats

Team totals read from the league's public game summary
Live team statistics
StatWPGTB
ShotsWPG21TB31
HitsWPG28TB17
Blocked shotsWPG14TB11
Power playWPG0/2TB1/3
Faceoff winWPG61.4%TB38.6%
TakeawaysWPG2TB1
GiveawaysWPG11TB16
Penalty minutesWPG6TB4

Winnipeg Jets vs Tampa Bay Lightning team breakdown

From the stored in-game series
Team breakdown
StatWPGTB
ScoreWPG4TB6
Average win probabilityWPG17%TB83%
Longest scoring runWPG+3TB+4
Time leadingWPG0:00TB44:55

Winnipeg Jets vs Tampa Bay Lightning model odds

Bandwagon modelAxle 1.1 · updated Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET
Jets35%
Win chance
Lightning65%
SpreadTB −1closing model spread
Total6
Moneyline+190away / −190homeaway / home
Line movementTB win chance, 7 stored lines
No move
71%60%
Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET: TB 65%Oct 28, 11:14 PM ET: TB 65%Oct 28, 11:44 PM ET: TB 65%Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET: TB 65%Oct 29, 12:48 AM ET: TB 65%Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET: TB 65%Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET: TB 65%
Oct 28Oct 29
Every stored line
StoredTB winMove
Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET65%0
Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET65%0
Oct 29, 12:48 AM ET65%0
Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET65%0
Oct 28, 11:44 PM ET65%0
Oct 28, 11:14 PM ET65%0
Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET65%—
Ratings
TB 1546 · WPG 1458
Home spread
−1
Stored
Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET · 2026-10-29 10:01 UTC
Version
Axle 1.1

How the model works

Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.

Result: Winnipeg Jets 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 6. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.

How this line is made

The inputs behind this line were not recorded (it was stored before model 2.0). Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs.

Who ya got: bandwagon versus model

Who ya got · 1 pick

Be the first on the bandwagon

JetsLightning
Neutrals only–
JetsLightning
Picks locked at kickoff.
Bandwagon minus model, Lightning–

1 pick so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.

Jets vs Lightning odds on Kalshi and Polymarket

Every NHL market

Kalshi had the Lightning at 67% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 67% when last read, ; and Axle 1.1 had them at 65% when last read, .

SourceWPGTBPrice read
Kalshi33%67% · closing price
Polymarket34%67% · closing price
Bandwagon model35%65% · model 1.1
Kalshi minus model, TB: +2Polymarket minus model, TB: +1

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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works

Winnipeg Jets vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction

Bandwagon's model makes the Lightning a 1-point favorite at home, with a 65% chance to win. The model total is 6. Ratings: Lightning 1555 (4th of 32), Jets 1462 (28th). The Lightning are 9-3-2 in the Atlantic Division; the Jets are 5-8-3 in the Central Division. The Lightning have won 2 of their last 5; the Jets 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Lightning won 2, the Jets 4.

Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.

Recent form

Winnipeg Jets

OpponentKick (ET)ResultPicksAxle
at Montreal CanadiensW 5–4––matchup
at Carolina HurricanesL 0–7––matchup
at Florida PanthersL 2–5––matchup
at Tampa Bay LightningL 4–6––matchup
vs Florida PanthersL 1–5––matchup

Tampa Bay Lightning

OpponentKick (ET)ResultPicksAxle
vs Detroit Red WingsW 4–2––matchup
at Nashville PredatorsL 4–5––matchup
vs Winnipeg JetsW 6–4––matchup
at Utah MammothL 4–5––matchup
at Colorado AvalancheL 3–6––matchup

Head-to-head

GameKick (ET)ResultPicksAxle
Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets1–4––matchup
Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning1–4––matchup
Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning1–4––matchup
Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets4–7––matchup
Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets2–4––matchup
Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning3–2––matchup

Injuries

Winnipeg Jets: nobody listed as injured by the roster source

Tampa Bay Lightning: nobody listed as injured by the roster source

From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.

Standings and ratings

All ratings
  • Jets5-8-3 Central Division, 7th · W1
  • Jets rating1462 28th of 32, 16 games
  • Lightning9-3-2 Atlantic Division, 3rd · W1
  • Lightning rating1555 4th of 32, 14 games

Winnipeg Jets 5-8-3

National Hockey League · Central Division · 7th · streak W1

–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $JETSWPG
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $JETSWPG
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $JETSWPG
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –

No stances yet today on $JETSWPG: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Winnipeg Jets bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.

Jets roster, schedule and more

Tampa Bay Lightning 9-3-2

National Hockey League · Atlantic Division · 3rd · streak W1

–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $LIGHTNING
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $LIGHTNING
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $LIGHTNING
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –

No stances yet today on $LIGHTNING: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Tampa Bay Lightning bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.

Lightning roster, schedule and more

Takes on Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning

Sign in to post a take on $JETSWPGLIGHTNING261029: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.

No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.

Final: Jets 4, Lightning 6. Bandwagon's model had the Lightning at 65% and projected Lightning 3.5, Jets 2.5; spread Lightning −1, total 6. Last read: Kalshi 67%, Polymarket 67% for the Lightning.