Winnipeg Jets vs Tampa Bay Lightning: final score and how the prediction did, October 29, 2026
- Final scoreJets 4, Lightning 6 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerLightning 65%
- Pregame Projected scoreLightning 3.5, Jets 2.5
- Model spreadLightning −1 total 6
- Margin2 projected 1
- Total10 projected 6
Bandwagon Axle 1.1 · Updated
Winnipeg Jets or Tampa Bay Lightning: the bandwagon
Axle 35–65Market 33–67
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| TB | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Winnipeg Jets vs Tampa Bay Lightning live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | WPG | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | WPG21 | TB31 |
| Hits | WPG28 | TB17 |
| Blocked shots | WPG14 | TB11 |
| Power play | WPG0/2 | TB1/3 |
| Faceoff win | WPG61.4% | TB38.6% |
| Takeaways | WPG2 | TB1 |
| Giveaways | WPG11 | TB16 |
| Penalty minutes | WPG6 | TB4 |
Winnipeg Jets vs Tampa Bay Lightning team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | WPG | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WPG4 | TB6 |
| Average win probability | WPG17% | TB83% |
| Longest scoring run | WPG+3 | TB+4 |
| Time leading | WPG0:00 | TB44:55 |
Winnipeg Jets vs Tampa Bay Lightning model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | TB win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:48 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:44 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:14 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- TB 1546 · WPG 1458
- Home spread
- −1
- Stored
- Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET · 2026-10-29 10:01 UTC
- Version
- Axle 1.1
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Winnipeg Jets 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 6. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
The inputs behind this line were not recorded (it was stored before model 2.0). Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
1 pick so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Jets vs Lightning odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NHL marketKalshi had the Lightning at 67% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 67% when last read, ; and Axle 1.1 had them at 65% when last read, .
| Source | WPG | TB | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 33% | 67% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 34% | 67% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 35% | 65% | · model 1.1 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Winnipeg Jets vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Lightning a 1-point favorite at home, with a 65% chance to win. The model total is 6. Ratings: Lightning 1555 (4th of 32), Jets 1462 (28th). The Lightning are 9-3-2 in the Atlantic Division; the Jets are 5-8-3 in the Central Division. The Lightning have won 2 of their last 5; the Jets 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Lightning won 2, the Jets 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Winnipeg Jets
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Montreal Canadiens | W 5–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Carolina Hurricanes | L 0–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Florida Panthers | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tampa Bay Lightning | L 4–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Florida Panthers | L 1–5 | – | – | matchup |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Detroit Red Wings | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nashville Predators | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Winnipeg Jets | W 6–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Utah Mammoth | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Colorado Avalanche | L 3–6 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets | 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning | 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning | 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets | 4–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets | 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning | 3–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Winnipeg Jets: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Tampa Bay Lightning: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Jets5-8-3 Central Division, 7th · W1
- Jets rating1462 28th of 32, 16 games
- Lightning9-3-2 Atlantic Division, 3rd · W1
- Lightning rating1555 4th of 32, 14 games
Winnipeg Jets 5-8-3
National Hockey League · Central Division · 7th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $JETSWPG: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Winnipeg Jets bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Tampa Bay Lightning 9-3-2
National Hockey League · Atlantic Division · 3rd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $LIGHTNING: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Tampa Bay Lightning bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning
Sign in to post a take on $JETSWPGLIGHTNING261029: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
Final: Jets 4, Lightning 6. Bandwagon's model had the Lightning at 65% and projected Lightning 3.5, Jets 2.5; spread Lightning −1, total 6. Last read: Kalshi 67%, Polymarket 67% for the Lightning.