Montreal leads 1-0 twelve minutes into the first, and the model has the Canadiens at 66 percent at home. The crowd has not weighed in yet, so the number to watch is whether that edge holds through the first intermission.
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Winnipeg Jets vs Montreal Canadiens: final score and how the prediction did, November 3, 2026
- Final scoreJets 5, Canadiens 4 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerCanadiens 66%
- Pregame Projected scoreCanadiens 3.5, Jets 2.5
- Model spreadCanadiens −1 total 6
- Margin1 projected 1
- Total9 projected 6
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Winnipeg Jets or Montreal Canadiens: the bandwagon
Axle 34–66Market 39–61
Final · OTPregame: MTL 66%Baseline: MTL 89.3% (+23.7)Big swing: 51.7 ptsClutch window: 6:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| MTL | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Shots
WPG 47MTL 22
Winnipeg Jets at Montreal Canadiens win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to WPG−98.8 points for MTL over the last 5:00
Big swing51.7 ptstoward WPG at 63:30 of game time
Clutch window6:00within 1 goals in the final period
BaselineMTL 89.3%game average, +23.7 points from the pregame 65.6%
Winnipeg Jets vs Montreal Canadiens live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | WPG | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | WPG47 | MTL22 |
| Hits | WPG20 | MTL16 |
| Blocked shots | WPG9 | MTL23 |
| Power play | WPG1/5 | MTL2/4 |
| Faceoff win | WPG51.9% | MTL48.1% |
| Takeaways | WPG4 | MTL3 |
| Giveaways | WPG10 | MTL14 |
| Penalty minutes | WPG20 | MTL22 |
Winnipeg Jets vs Montreal Canadiens team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | WPG | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WPG5 | MTL4 |
| Average win probability | WPG11% | MTL89% |
| Longest scoring run | WPG+5 | MTL+4 |
| Time leading | WPG0:00 | MTL56:23 |
Winnipeg Jets vs Montreal Canadiens model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 3, 9:53 PM ET
Jets34%
Win chanceCanadiens66%
SpreadMTL −1closing model spread
Total6
Moneyline+191away / −191homeaway / home
Line movementMTL win chance, 24 stored lines
+2 pts for MTL between Oct 28 and Nov 3
71%58%
Oct 28Oct 31Nov 3
Every stored line
| Stored | MTL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 9:53 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:53 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:43 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:45 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 3:43 PM ET | 66% | +1 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:44 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:56 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:46 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 9:46 PM ET | 65% | +1 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:42 PM ET | 64% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 63% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:48 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:44 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:14 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 64% | — |
- Ratings
- MTL 1545 · WPG 1457
- Home spread
- −1
- Stored
- Nov 3, 9:53 PM ET · 2026-11-04 02:53 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Winnipeg Jets 5, Montreal Canadiens 4. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Nov 1, 2:58 PM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
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Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Canadiens–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Jets vs Canadiens odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NHL marketKalshi had the Canadiens at 60% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 62% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 66% when last read, ; the two venues were 2 points apart at those reads.
| Source | WPG | MTL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 40% | 60% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 38% | 62% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 34% | 66% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, MTL: −6Polymarket minus model, MTL: −4
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Winnipeg Jets vs Montreal Canadiens prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Canadiens a 1-point favorite at home, with a 66% chance to win. The model total is 6. Ratings: Canadiens 1541 (6th of 32), Jets 1462 (28th). The Canadiens are 9-3-3 in the Atlantic Division; the Jets are 5-8-3 in the Central Division. The Canadiens have won 4 of their last 5; the Jets 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Canadiens won 4, the Jets 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Winnipeg Jets
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Montreal Canadiens | W 5–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Carolina Hurricanes | L 0–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Florida Panthers | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tampa Bay Lightning | L 4–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Florida Panthers | L 1–5 | – | – | matchup |
Montreal Canadiens
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Winnipeg Jets | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Pittsburgh Penguins | W 5–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Dallas Stars | W 5–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at St. Louis Blues | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Winnipeg Jets | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal Canadiens at Winnipeg Jets | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Montreal Canadiens at Winnipeg Jets | 5–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Winnipeg Jets at Montreal Canadiens | 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Winnipeg Jets at Montreal Canadiens | 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Montreal Canadiens at Winnipeg Jets | 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Montreal Canadiens at Winnipeg Jets | 3–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Winnipeg Jets: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Montreal Canadiens: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Jets5-8-3 Central Division, 7th · W1
- Jets rating1462 28th of 32, 16 games
- Canadiens9-3-3 Atlantic Division, 2nd · L1
- Canadiens rating1541 6th of 32, 15 games
Winnipeg Jets 5-8-3
National Hockey League · Central Division · 7th · streak W1
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No stances yet today on $JETSWPG: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Winnipeg Jets bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Montreal Canadiens 9-3-3
National Hockey League · Atlantic Division · 2nd · streak L1
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No stances yet today on $CANADIENS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Montreal Canadiens bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Winnipeg Jets at Montreal Canadiens
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Final: Jets 5, Canadiens 4. Bandwagon's model had the Canadiens at 66% and projected Canadiens 3.5, Jets 2.5; spread Canadiens −1, total 6. Last read: Kalshi 60%, Polymarket 62% for the Canadiens.