Montreal leads Pittsburgh 4-2 with 17:39 left in the second. The model has the Canadiens at 60 percent at home, and no crowd picks are in yet to set against it.
NHL · · Bell Centre · every National Hockey League line
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Montreal Canadiens: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scorePenguins 4, Canadiens 5 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerCanadiens 60%
- Pregame Projected scoreCanadiens 3.3, Penguins 2.8
- Model spreadCanadiens −0.5 total 6
- Margin1 projected 0.5
- Total9 projected 6
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Pittsburgh Penguins or Montreal Canadiens: the bandwagon
Axle 40–60Market 48–53
FinalPregame: MTL 60%Baseline: MTL 81.0% (+20.8)Big swing: 19.1 ptsClutch window: 3:11
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| MTL | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Shots
PIT 29MTL 27
Pittsburgh Penguins at Montreal Canadiens win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.5 points for MTL over the last 5:00
Big swing19.1 ptstoward MTL at 21:04 of game time
Clutch window3:11within 1 goals in the final period
BaselineMTL 81.0%game average, +20.8 points from the pregame 60.3%
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Montreal Canadiens live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | PIT | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | PIT29 | MTL27 |
| Hits | PIT13 | MTL22 |
| Blocked shots | PIT9 | MTL22 |
| Power play | PIT1/3 | MTL0/3 |
| Faceoff win | PIT42.9% | MTL57.1% |
| Takeaways | PIT4 | MTL4 |
| Giveaways | PIT17 | MTL14 |
| Penalty minutes | PIT13 | MTL13 |
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Montreal Canadiens team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | PIT | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT4 | MTL5 |
| Average win probability | PIT19% | MTL81% |
| Longest scoring run | PIT+1 | MTL+3 |
| Time leading | PIT0:34 | MTL43:19 |
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Montreal Canadiens model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 9:46 PM ET
Penguins40%
Win chanceCanadiens60%
SpreadMTL −0.5closing model spread
Total6
Moneyline+152away / −152homeaway / home
Line movementMTL win chance, 12 stored lines
+2 pts for MTL between Oct 28 and Oct 31
66%52%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | MTL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 9:46 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:46 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:42 PM ET | 60% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 59% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:48 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:44 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:14 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 58% | — |
- Ratings
- MTL 1543 · PIT 1494
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Oct 31, 9:46 PM ET · 2026-11-01 01:46 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Montreal Canadiens 5. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 29, 10:43 PM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
PenguinsCanadiens
Neutrals only–
PenguinsCanadiens
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Canadiens–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Penguins vs Canadiens odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NHL marketKalshi had the Canadiens at 54% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 52% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 60% when last read, ; the two venues were 2 points apart at those reads.
| Source | PIT | MTL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 47% | 54% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 49% | 52% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 40% | 60% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, MTL: −7Polymarket minus model, MTL: −9
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Montreal Canadiens prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Canadiens a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 60% chance to win. The model total is 6. Ratings: Canadiens 1541 (6th of 32), Penguins 1489 (18th). The Canadiens are 9-3-2 in the Atlantic Division; the Penguins are 5-7-2 in the Metropolitan Division. The Canadiens have won 4 of their last 5; the Penguins 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Canadiens won 3, the Penguins 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Vegas Golden Knights | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Montreal Canadiens | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah Mammoth | L 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Nashville Predators | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Florida Panthers | W 4–0 | – | – | matchup |
Montreal Canadiens
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Winnipeg Jets | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Pittsburgh Penguins | W 5–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Dallas Stars | W 5–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at St. Louis Blues | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Winnipeg Jets | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins | 5–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| Montreal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins | 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Pittsburgh Penguins at Montreal Canadiens | 0–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Montreal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins | 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Pittsburgh Penguins at Montreal Canadiens | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Pittsburgh Penguins at Montreal Canadiens | 9–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Pittsburgh Penguins: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Montreal Canadiens: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Penguins5-7-2 Metropolitan Division, 6th · L2
- Penguins rating1489 18th of 32, 15 games
- Canadiens9-3-2 Atlantic Division, 2nd · W5
- Canadiens rating1541 6th of 32, 15 games
Pittsburgh Penguins 5-7-2
National Hockey League · Metropolitan Division · 6th · streak L2
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $PENGUINS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $PENGUINS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $PENGUINS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $PENGUINS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Pittsburgh Penguins bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Montreal Canadiens 9-3-2
National Hockey League · Atlantic Division · 2nd · streak W5
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $CANADIENS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $CANADIENS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $CANADIENS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $CANADIENS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Montreal Canadiens bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Pittsburgh Penguins at Montreal Canadiens
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Final: Penguins 4, Canadiens 5. Bandwagon's model had the Canadiens at 60% and projected Canadiens 3.3, Penguins 2.8; spread Canadiens −0.5, total 6. Last read: Kalshi 54%, Polymarket 52% for the Canadiens.