NBATOR 109 DEN 128· 0.0 - 4thNBAPOR 116 PHX 97· 7:04 - 4thNBADAL 51 SA 68· 10:21 - 3rdNBALAL 61 SAC 54· HalftimeNHLSJ 1 LA 3· 12:45 - 2ndNHLCGY 1 SEA 0· 8:25 - 2ndCBBNDSU 43 SMC 75· 10:20 - 2ndWCBBSMC 45 STAN 65· 0:15 - 3rdCBBMILW 42 SCU 70· 12:47 - 2ndNBAMIA 37 LAC 50· 5:08 - 2ndWCBBUNF–FSU11:00 AMWCBBHAMP–SMU12:00 PMWCBBM-OH–SEMO12:00 PMWCBBSTBK–IONA1:00 PMWCBBUNT–SDSU2:00 PMWCBBHAW–SF3:00 PMWCBBUIC–RMU4:00 PMWCBBUCF–FLA4:30 PMCBBMCN–UNT5:00 PMWCBBCAN–UNH6:00 PMWCBBDART–HC6:00 PMWCBBMSM–UMBC6:00 PMWCBBMRST–BRY6:00 PMWCBBPRES–WAKE6:00 PMWCBBSIE–ME6:00 PMCBBWAKE–VAN6:00 PMCBBUTC–PSU6:00 PMCBBBELL–IU6:00 PMCBBCHST–UIW6:00 PMWCBBCLT–TTU6:00 PMWCBBCCSU–JMU6:00 PMWCBBUWF–WCU6:00 PMWCBBMRMK–NJIT6:00 PMWCBBCONN–MICH6:30 PMWCBBNKU–UK6:30 PMWCBBCMU–OSU6:30 PMWCBBLIP–BTLR6:30 PMCBBLIU–HALL6:30 PMWCBBMAN–UALB6:30 PMWCBBSIUE–IUIN6:30 PMAll scores
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Vegas Golden Knights vs Pittsburgh Penguins: final score and how the prediction did, November 3, 2026

Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated

Vegas Golden Knights or Pittsburgh Penguins: the bandwagon

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Penguins▲ Hop on▼ Jump off

Axle 52–48Market 47–53

FinalPregame: PIT 48%Baseline: PIT 39.1% (−8.7)Big swing: 49.6 ptsClutch window: 20:00
Vegas Golden Knights
Record 10-5-2
3+22+2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Record 5-8-2
Score by period
Team123T
VGK1023
PIT0022
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Shots
VGK 23PIT 25

Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins win probability

Bandwagon's model
Last update: 3rdFetched at
Win probability for PIT: 86 points, 48% at the start, 0% at the end.0%20%40%60%80%100%0:0020:0040:0060:00PIT 0%VGK 100%Market 53%
Win probability for PIT: 86 points, 48% at the start, 0% at the end.0%20%40%60%80%100%0:0020:0040:0060:00PIT 0%VGK 100%Market 53%

Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.

How this line is computed

The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.

MomentumSwinging to VGK−49.2 points for PIT over the last 5:00
Big swing49.6 ptstoward VGK at 59:25 of game time
Clutch window20:00within 1 goals in the final period
BaselinePIT 39.1%game average, −8.7 points from the pregame 47.8%

Vegas Golden Knights vs Pittsburgh Penguins live stats

Team totals read from the league's public game summary
Live team statistics
StatVGKPIT
ShotsVGK23PIT25
HitsVGK29PIT9
Blocked shotsVGK18PIT8
Power playVGK2/4PIT0/6
Faceoff winVGK50.0%PIT50.0%
TakeawaysVGK7PIT3
GiveawaysVGK14PIT19
Penalty minutesVGK12PIT8

Vegas Golden Knights vs Pittsburgh Penguins team breakdown

From the stored in-game series
Team breakdown
StatVGKPIT
ScoreVGK3PIT2
Average win probabilityVGK61%PIT39%
Longest scoring runVGK+2PIT+2
Time leadingVGK24:36PIT1:09

Vegas Golden Knights vs Pittsburgh Penguins model odds

Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET
Golden Knights52%
Win chance
Penguins48%
SpreadPKclosing model spread
Total6.5
Moneyline−109away / +109homeaway / home
Line movementPIT win chance, 20 stored lines
+1 pts for PIT between Oct 28 and Nov 3
53%41%
Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET: PIT 47%Oct 28, 11:44 PM ET: PIT 47%Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET: PIT 47%Oct 29, 12:48 AM ET: PIT 47%Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET: PIT 47%Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET: PIT 47%Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET: PIT 47%Oct 30, 8:41 PM ET: PIT 48%Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET: PIT 48%Oct 31, 9:46 PM ET: PIT 48%Oct 31, 9:56 PM ET: PIT 47%Nov 1, 12:44 AM ET: PIT 47%Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET: PIT 47%Nov 1, 10:45 PM ET: PIT 47%Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET: PIT 47%Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET: PIT 47%Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET: PIT 47%Nov 2, 10:56 PM ET: PIT 48%Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET: PIT 48%Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET: PIT 48%
Oct 28Oct 31Nov 3
Every stored line
StoredPIT winMove
Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET48%0
Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET48%0
Nov 2, 10:56 PM ET48%+1
Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET47%0
Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET47%0
Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET47%0
Nov 1, 10:45 PM ET47%0
Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET47%0
Nov 1, 12:44 AM ET47%0
Oct 31, 9:56 PM ET47%−1
Oct 31, 9:46 PM ET48%0
Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET48%0
Oct 30, 8:41 PM ET48%+1
Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET47%0
Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET47%0
Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET47%0
Oct 29, 12:48 AM ET47%0
Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET47%0
Oct 28, 11:44 PM ET47%0
Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET47%—
Ratings
PIT 1492 · VGK 1532
Home spread
PK
Stored
Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-03 10:03 UTC
Version
Axle 2.0

How the model works

Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.

Result: Vegas Golden Knights 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.

How this line is made

In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.

Internal

  • Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
  • Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
  • Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
  • Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results

External

  • Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 31, 5:30 AM UTC
  • Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
  • Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts

Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.

Who ya got: bandwagon versus model

Who ya got · no picks yet

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Golden KnightsPenguins
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Golden KnightsPenguins
Picks locked at kickoff.
Bandwagon minus model, Penguins–

No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.

Golden Knights vs Penguins odds on Kalshi and Polymarket

Every NHL market

Kalshi had the Golden Knights at 47% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 47% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 52% when last read, .

SourceVGKPITPrice read
Kalshi47%53% · closing price
Polymarket47%53% · closing price
Bandwagon model52%48% · model 2.0
Kalshi minus model, PIT: +5Polymarket minus model, PIT: +5

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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works

Vegas Golden Knights vs Pittsburgh Penguins prediction

Bandwagon's model makes the Golden Knights the favorite, with a 52% chance to win; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 6.5. Ratings: Penguins 1489 (18th of 32), Golden Knights 1535 (8th). The Penguins are 5-8-2 in the Metropolitan Division; the Golden Knights are 10-5-2 in the Pacific Division. The Penguins have won 2 of their last 5; the Golden Knights 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Penguins won 2, the Golden Knights 4.

Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.

Recent form

Vegas Golden Knights

OpponentKick (ET)ResultPicksAxle
at Pittsburgh PenguinsW 3–2––matchup
at Boston BruinsL 2–3––matchup
vs New Jersey DevilsL 2–5––matchup
vs Ottawa SenatorsW 4–1––matchup
at Columbus Blue JacketsL 1–2––matchup

Pittsburgh Penguins

OpponentKick (ET)ResultPicksAxle
vs Vegas Golden KnightsL 2–3––matchup
at Montreal CanadiensL 4–5––matchup
vs Utah MammothL 3–4––matchup
vs Nashville PredatorsW 3–2––matchup
vs Florida PanthersW 4–0––matchup

Head-to-head

GameKick (ET)ResultPicksAxle
Pittsburgh Penguins at Vegas Golden Knights2–6––matchup
Pittsburgh Penguins at Vegas Golden Knights2–6––matchup
Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins0–5––matchup
Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins2–3––matchup
Pittsburgh Penguins at Vegas Golden Knights0–4––matchup
Pittsburgh Penguins at Vegas Golden Knights2–3––matchup

Injuries

Vegas Golden Knights: nobody listed as injured by the roster source

Pittsburgh Penguins: nobody listed as injured by the roster source

From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.

Standings and ratings

All ratings
  • Golden Knights10-5-2 Pacific Division, 2nd · W1
  • Golden Knights rating1535 8th of 32, 17 games
  • Penguins5-8-2 Metropolitan Division, 7th · L3
  • Penguins rating1489 18th of 32, 15 games

Vegas Golden Knights 10-5-2

National Hockey League · Pacific Division · 2nd · streak W1

–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $GOLDENKNIGHTS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $GOLDENKNIGHTS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $GOLDENKNIGHTS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –

No stances yet today on $GOLDENKNIGHTS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Vegas Golden Knights bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.

▲ Hop on▼ Jump off

Golden Knights roster, schedule and more

Pittsburgh Penguins 5-8-2

National Hockey League · Metropolitan Division · 7th · streak L3

–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $PENGUINS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $PENGUINS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $PENGUINS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –

No stances yet today on $PENGUINS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Pittsburgh Penguins bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.

▲ Hop on▼ Jump off

Penguins roster, schedule and more

Takes on Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins

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Final: Golden Knights 3, Penguins 2. Bandwagon's model had the Golden Knights at 52% and projected Golden Knights 3.3, Penguins 3.2; spread even, total 6.5. Last read: Kalshi 47%, Polymarket 47% for the Golden Knights.