The model had the Golden Knights at 59 percent at home, and the Devils won 5-2. A three-goal margin is a story, not noise, and the crowd logged no picks to weigh in on it.
NHL · · T-Mobile Arena · every National Hockey League line
New Jersey Devils vs Vegas Golden Knights: final score and how the prediction did, October 30, 2026
- Final scoreDevils 5, Golden Knights 2 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerGolden Knights 59%
- Pregame Projected scoreGolden Knights 3.3, Devils 2.8
- Model spreadGolden Knights −0.5 total 6
- Margin3 projected 0.5
- Total7 projected 6
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
New Jersey Devils or Vegas Golden Knights: the bandwagon
Axle 41–59Market 49–51
FinalPregame: VGK 59%Baseline: VGK 28.7% (−30.4)Big swing: 22.8 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJ | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| VGK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Shots
NJ 32VGK 21
New Jersey Devils at Vegas Golden Knights win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable−0.9 points for VGK over the last 5:00
Big swing22.8 ptstoward NJ at 23:49 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 1 goals in the final period
BaselineVGK 28.7%game average, −30.4 points from the pregame 59.1%
New Jersey Devils vs Vegas Golden Knights live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | NJ | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | NJ32 | VGK21 |
| Hits | NJ13 | VGK36 |
| Blocked shots | NJ5 | VGK15 |
| Power play | NJ0/2 | VGK1/1 |
| Faceoff win | NJ47.4% | VGK52.6% |
| Takeaways | NJ7 | VGK1 |
| Giveaways | NJ9 | VGK15 |
| Penalty minutes | NJ2 | VGK4 |
New Jersey Devils vs Vegas Golden Knights team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | NJ | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NJ5 | VGK2 |
| Average win probability | NJ71% | VGK29% |
| Longest scoring run | NJ+4 | VGK+2 |
| Time leading | NJ46:24 | VGK0:53 |
New Jersey Devils vs Vegas Golden Knights model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET
Devils41%
Win chanceGolden Knights59%
SpreadVGK −0.5closing model spread
Total6
Moneyline+144away / −144homeaway / home
Line movementVGK win chance, 9 stored lines
+2 pts for VGK between Oct 28 and Oct 30
65%51%
Oct 28Oct 30
Every stored line
| Stored | VGK win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 59% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:48 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:44 PM ET | 58% | +1 |
| Oct 28, 11:14 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 57% | — |
- Ratings
- VGK 1542 · NJ 1502
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET · 2026-10-30 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: New Jersey Devils 5, Vegas Golden Knights 2. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 29, 10:43 PM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
DevilsGolden Knights
Neutrals only–
DevilsGolden Knights
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Golden Knights–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Devils vs Golden Knights odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NHL marketKalshi had the Golden Knights at 51% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 52% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 59% when last read, ; the two venues were 1 point apart at those reads.
| Source | NJ | VGK | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 49% | 51% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 49% | 52% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 41% | 59% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, VGK: −8Polymarket minus model, VGK: −8
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
New Jersey Devils vs Vegas Golden Knights prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Golden Knights a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 59% chance to win. The model total is 6. Ratings: Golden Knights 1535 (8th of 32), Devils 1513 (14th). The Golden Knights are 9-5-1 in the Pacific Division; the Devils are 9-5 in the Metropolitan Division. The Golden Knights have won 2 of their last 5; the Devils 4 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Golden Knights won 4, the Devils 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
New Jersey Devils
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Edmonton Oilers | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Vegas Golden Knights | W 5–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Colorado Avalanche | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Dallas Stars | W 5–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Los Angeles Kings | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup |
Vegas Golden Knights
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Pittsburgh Penguins | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Boston Bruins | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Jersey Devils | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ottawa Senators | W 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Columbus Blue Jackets | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Jersey Devils at Vegas Golden Knights | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Vegas Golden Knights at New Jersey Devils | 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| New Jersey Devils at Vegas Golden Knights | 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Vegas Golden Knights at New Jersey Devils | 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| New Jersey Devils at Vegas Golden Knights | 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Vegas Golden Knights at New Jersey Devils | 5–6 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
New Jersey Devils: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Vegas Golden Knights: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Devils9-5 Metropolitan Division, 2nd · W1
- Devils rating1513 14th of 32, 15 games
- Golden Knights9-5-1 Pacific Division, 2nd · L1
- Golden Knights rating1535 8th of 32, 17 games
National Hockey League · Metropolitan Division · 2nd · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $DEVILS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $DEVILS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $DEVILS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $DEVILS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the New Jersey Devils bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Vegas Golden Knights 9-5-1
National Hockey League · Pacific Division · 2nd · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $GOLDENKNIGHTS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $GOLDENKNIGHTS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $GOLDENKNIGHTS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $GOLDENKNIGHTS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Vegas Golden Knights bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on New Jersey Devils at Vegas Golden Knights
Sign in to post a take on $DEVILSGOLDENKNIGHT261030: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Devils 5, Golden Knights 2. Bandwagon's model had the Golden Knights at 59% and projected Golden Knights 3.3, Devils 2.8; spread Golden Knights −0.5, total 6. Last read: Kalshi 51%, Polymarket 52% for the Golden Knights.