Montreal Canadiens vs Dallas Stars: final score and how the prediction did, October 29, 2026
- Final scoreCanadiens 5, Stars 2 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerStars 54%
- Pregame Projected scoreStars 3.0, Canadiens 2.5
- Model spreadStars −0.5 total 5.5
- Margin3 projected 0.5
- Total7 projected 5.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Montreal Canadiens or Dallas Stars: the bandwagon
Axle 46–54Market 38–62
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| DAL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Montreal Canadiens at Dallas Stars win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Montreal Canadiens vs Dallas Stars live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | MTL | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | MTL21 | DAL19 |
| Hits | MTL13 | DAL16 |
| Blocked shots | MTL9 | DAL10 |
| Power play | MTL0/4 | DAL1/3 |
| Faceoff win | MTL35.7% | DAL64.3% |
| Takeaways | MTL4 | DAL4 |
| Giveaways | MTL20 | DAL17 |
| Penalty minutes | MTL6 | DAL8 |
Montreal Canadiens vs Dallas Stars team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | MTL | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL5 | DAL2 |
| Average win probability | MTL83% | DAL17% |
| Longest scoring run | MTL+3 | DAL+1 |
| Time leading | MTL50:44 | DAL0:00 |
Montreal Canadiens vs Dallas Stars model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | DAL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 54% | +2 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:48 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:44 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:14 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 52% | — |
- Ratings
- DAL 1541 · MTL 1536
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET · 2026-10-30 02:27 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
- Last move
- spread PK → −0.5, home 52% → 54%
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Montreal Canadiens 5, Dallas Stars 2. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 29, 10:43 PM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Canadiens vs Stars odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NHL marketKalshi had the Stars at 63% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 62% when last read, ; and Axle 1.1 had them at 52% when last read, ; the two venues were 1 point apart at those reads.
| Source | MTL | DAL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 38% | 63% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 39% | 62% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 46% | 54% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Montreal Canadiens vs Dallas Stars prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Stars a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 54% chance to win. The model total is 5.5. Ratings: Stars 1542 (5th of 32), Canadiens 1541 (6th). The Stars are 8-5-1 in the Central Division; the Canadiens are 9-3-2 in the Atlantic Division. The Stars have won 3 of their last 5; the Canadiens 4 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Stars won 3, the Canadiens 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Montreal Canadiens
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Winnipeg Jets | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Pittsburgh Penguins | W 5–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Dallas Stars | W 5–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at St. Louis Blues | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Winnipeg Jets | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup |
Dallas Stars
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Washington Capitals | W 6–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Columbus Blue Jackets | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Montreal Canadiens | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Jersey Devils | L 1–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New York Islanders | W 6–3 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal Canadiens at Dallas Stars | 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Dallas Stars at Montreal Canadiens | 7–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Montreal Canadiens at Dallas Stars | 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Dallas Stars at Montreal Canadiens | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Dallas Stars at Montreal Canadiens | 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Montreal Canadiens at Dallas Stars | 4–3 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Montreal Canadiens: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Dallas Stars: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Canadiens9-3-2 Atlantic Division, 2nd · W5
- Canadiens rating1541 6th of 32, 15 games
- Stars8-5-1 Central Division, 4th · W1
- Stars rating1542 5th of 32, 15 games
Montreal Canadiens 9-3-2
National Hockey League · Atlantic Division · 2nd · streak W5
No stances yet today on $CANADIENS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Montreal Canadiens bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Dallas Stars 8-5-1
National Hockey League · Central Division · 4th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $STARS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Dallas Stars bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Final: Canadiens 5, Stars 2. Bandwagon's model had the Stars at 54% and projected Stars 3.0, Canadiens 2.5; spread Stars −0.5, total 5.5. Last read: Kalshi 63%, Polymarket 62% for the Stars.