Dallas leads 4-0 with 14:17 left in the second, a four-goal margin that is a story rather than noise. The model still gives Washington 52 percent at home, a narrow edge, so the next goal will tell us how much the score has moved it.
NHL · · Capital One Arena · every National Hockey League line
Dallas Stars vs Washington Capitals: final score and how the prediction did, November 3, 2026
- Final scoreStars 6, Capitals 5 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerCapitals 52%
- Pregame Projected scoreCapitals 3.1, Stars 2.9
- Model spreadeven total 6
- Margin1 projected 0.2
- Total11 projected 6
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Dallas Stars or Washington Capitals: the bandwagon
Axle 48–52Market 49–51
FinalPregame: WSH 52%Baseline: WSH 15.8% (−35.8)Big swing: 19.0 ptsClutch window: 1:02
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| WSH | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Shots
DAL 23WSH 25
Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable−0.6 points for WSH over the last 5:00
Big swing19.0 ptstoward DAL at 9:32 of game time
Clutch window1:02within 1 goals in the final period
BaselineWSH 15.8%game average, −35.8 points from the pregame 51.6%
Dallas Stars vs Washington Capitals live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | DAL | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | DAL23 | WSH25 |
| Hits | DAL17 | WSH24 |
| Blocked shots | DAL18 | WSH8 |
| Power play | DAL1/2 | WSH2/3 |
| Faceoff win | DAL58.9% | WSH41.1% |
| Takeaways | DAL4 | WSH7 |
| Giveaways | DAL10 | WSH13 |
| Penalty minutes | DAL6 | WSH4 |
Dallas Stars vs Washington Capitals team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | DAL | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DAL6 | WSH5 |
| Average win probability | DAL84% | WSH16% |
| Longest scoring run | DAL+4 | WSH+2 |
| Time leading | DAL50:20 | WSH0:00 |
Dallas Stars vs Washington Capitals model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET
Stars48%
Win chanceCapitals52%
SpreadPKclosing model spread
Total6
Moneyline+107away / −107homeaway / home
Line movementWSH win chance, 23 stored lines
+1 pts for WSH between Oct 28 and Nov 3
59%46%
Oct 28Oct 31Nov 3
Every stored line
| Stored | WSH win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:45 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:12 PM ET | 52% | −1 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:44 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:41 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:56 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 9:46 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:55 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:42 PM ET | 53% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 52% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:48 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:44 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:14 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 51% | — |
- Ratings
- WSH 1525 · DAL 1538
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-03 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Dallas Stars 6, Washington Capitals 5. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 29, 10:43 PM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
StarsCapitals
Neutrals only–
StarsCapitals
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Capitals–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Stars vs Capitals odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NHL marketKalshi had the Capitals at 50% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 52% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 52% when last read, ; the two venues were 2 points apart at those reads.
| Source | DAL | WSH | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 50% | 50% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 48% | 52% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 48% | 52% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, WSH: −2Polymarket minus model, WSH: 0
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Dallas Stars vs Washington Capitals prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Capitals the favorite, with a 52% chance to win; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 6. Ratings: Capitals 1521 (11th of 32), Stars 1542 (5th). The Capitals are 8-6 in the Metropolitan Division; the Stars are 9-5-1 in the Central Division. The Capitals have won 3 of their last 5; the Stars 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Capitals won 1, the Stars 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Dallas Stars
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Washington Capitals | W 6–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Columbus Blue Jackets | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Montreal Canadiens | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Jersey Devils | L 1–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New York Islanders | W 6–3 | – | – | matchup |
Washington Capitals
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Dallas Stars | L 5–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Minnesota Wild | L 1–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nashville Predators | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Philadelphia Flyers | W 5–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Buffalo Sabres | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals | 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Washington Capitals at Dallas Stars | 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Washington Capitals at Dallas Stars | 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals | 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Washington Capitals at Dallas Stars | 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals | 5–4 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Dallas Stars: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Washington Capitals: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Stars9-5-1 Central Division, 3rd · W2
- Stars rating1542 5th of 32, 15 games
- Capitals8-6 Metropolitan Division, 4th · L2
- Capitals rating1521 11th of 32, 14 games
Dallas Stars 9-5-1
National Hockey League · Central Division · 3rd · streak W2
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $STARS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $STARS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $STARS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $STARS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Dallas Stars bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
National Hockey League · Metropolitan Division · 4th · streak L2
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $CAPITALS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $CAPITALS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $CAPITALS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $CAPITALS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Washington Capitals bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals
Sign in to post a take on $STARSCAPITALS261104: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Stars 6, Capitals 5. Bandwagon's model had the Capitals at 52% and projected Capitals 3.1, Stars 2.9; spread even, total 6. Last read: Kalshi 50%, Polymarket 52% for the Capitals.