Dallas leads 4-0 with 14:17 left in the second, a four-goal margin that is a story rather than noise. The model still gives Washington 52 percent at home, a narrow edge, so the next goal will tell us how much the score has moved it.

annikalund is ▲ on the Dallas Stars @ Washington Capitals ($STARSCAPITALS261104) bandwagon: Dallas leads 4-0 with 14:17 left in the second, a four-goal margin that is a story rather than noise. The model still gives Washington 52 percent at home, a nar