Miami (OH) opens as the model favorite at 60 percent, while the crowd has not weighed in yet. Score is 0-0 at kickoff, so the early read is all projection for now.
FBS · · Yager Stadium · every NCAA Division I FBS football line
Buffalo Bulls vs Miami (OH) RedHawks: final score and how the prediction did, November 3, 2026
- Final scoreBuffalo 34, Miami (OH) 31 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerMiami (OH) 60%
- Pregame Projected scoreMiami (OH) 28, Buffalo 24
- Model spreadMiami (OH) −4 total 51.5
- Margin3 projected 4
- Total65 projected 51.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Buffalo Bulls or Miami (OH) RedHawks: the bandwagon
Axle 40–60Market 30–70
Final · OTPregame: M-OH 60%Baseline: M-OH 77.1% (+17.0)Big swing: 75.8 ptsClutch window: 14:25
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 3 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 3 | 34 |
| M-OH | 7 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 31 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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Buffalo Bulls at Miami (OH) RedHawks win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to BUF−57.4 points for M-OH over the last 5:00
Big swing75.8 ptstoward BUF at 59:02 of game time
Clutch window14:25within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineM-OH 77.1%game average, +17.0 points from the pregame 60.1%
Buffalo Bulls vs Miami (OH) RedHawks live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | BUF | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | BUF459 | M-OH350 |
| First downs | BUF29 | M-OH23 |
| 3rd down | BUF6/14 | M-OH5/15 |
| 4th down | BUF2/2 | M-OH1/1 |
| Turnovers | BUF2 | M-OH0 |
| Penalties-yards | BUF6-56 | M-OH13-104 |
| Time of possession | BUF27:24 | M-OH32:36 |
Buffalo Bulls vs Miami (OH) RedHawks team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | BUF | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF34 | M-OH31 |
| Average win probability | BUF23% | M-OH77% |
| Longest scoring run | BUF+18 | M-OH+14 |
| Time leading | BUF5:24 | M-OH49:03 |
Buffalo Bulls vs Miami (OH) RedHawks model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET
Bulls40%
Win chanceRedHawks60%
SpreadM-OH −4closing model spread
Total51.5
Moneyline+151away / −151homeaway / home
Line movementM-OH win chance, 36 stored lines
−2 pts for M-OH between Oct 28 and Nov 3
68%54%
Oct 28Oct 31Nov 3
Every stored line
| Stored | M-OH win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 60% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 62% | — |
- Ratings
- M-OH 1458 · BUF 1456
- Home spread
- −4
- Stored
- Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET · 2026-11-03 10:02 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Buffalo Bulls 34, Miami (OH) RedHawks 31. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 3, 12:47 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · 2 picks
Be the first on the bandwagon
BullsRedHawks
Neutrals only–
BullsRedHawks
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, RedHawks–
2 picks so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Buffalo vs Miami (OH) odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi had RedHawks at 70% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 70% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 60% when last read, .
| Source | BUF | M-OH | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 30% | 70% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 30% | 70% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 40% | 60% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, M-OH: +9Polymarket minus model, M-OH: +9
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Buffalo Bulls vs Miami (OH) RedHawks prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the RedHawks a 4-point favorite at home, with a 60% chance to win. The model total is 51.5. Ratings: RedHawks 1438 (89th of 138), Bulls 1476 (76th). The RedHawks have won 3 of their last 5; the Bulls 4 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the RedHawks won 2, the Bulls 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Buffalo Bulls
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Miami (OH) RedHawks | W 34–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Bowling Green Falcons | W 31–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Massachusetts Minutemen | W 25–18 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Toledo Rockets | W 23–8 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Western Michigan Broncos | L 17–20 | – | – | matchup |
Miami (OH) RedHawks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Buffalo Bulls | L 31–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Central Michigan Chippewas | W 28–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Akron Zips | W 34–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Massachusetts Minutemen | W 20–19 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Bowling Green Falcons | L 20–24 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami (OH) RedHawks at Buffalo Bulls | 37–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| Buffalo Bulls at Miami (OH) RedHawks | 10–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| Miami (OH) RedHawks at Buffalo Bulls | 20–24 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Buffalo Bulls: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Miami (OH) RedHawks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bulls– 4th · W4
- Bulls rating1476 76th of 138, 7 games
- RedHawks– 5th · L1
- RedHawks rating1438 89th of 138, 8 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 4th · streak W4
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $BUF
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $BUF
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $BUF
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $BUF: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Buffalo Bulls bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 5th · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $MOH
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $MOH
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $MOH
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $MOH: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Miami (OH) RedHawks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Buffalo Bulls at Miami (OH) RedHawks
Sign in to post a take on $BUFMOH261104: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Buffalo 34, Miami (OH) 31. Bandwagon's model had the Miami (OH) at 60% and projected Miami (OH) 28, Buffalo 24; spread Miami (OH) −4, total 51.5. Last read: Kalshi 70%, Polymarket 70% for Miami (OH).