Moneyline to Spread Calculator
Enter a moneyline and a league to see the spread it matches in the model.
- Win probability used
- 58.0%
- Rating edge
- +68 points
- The model's constants
- NFL: scale 0.00557, shift -0.059, home edge 48 rating points, 0.0403 points per rating point (fitted on 1,260 games)
Method: edge = (logit(p) − shift) / scale, line = −edge × points per rating point. The edge already includes home advantage, so the line is for this team in this game. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line.
Model lines and crowd picks for 30 games in the next day and a half, as of Nov 4, 7:13 PM ET. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Educational tool. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. Results are arithmetic on the numbers you enter, not advice.
How the moneyline to Spread Calculator works
The model turns a rating edge into a win probability with a logistic, p = 1 / (1 + e^−(scale × edge + shift)), and into a spread with a fitted number of points per rating point. Run backwards: the edge is (logit(p) − shift) / scale and the spread is −edge × points per rating point, to the half point.
Moneyline to probability: the price's implied probability. If you also enter the other side's moneyline the margin is removed first, which is more accurate. The edge already includes home advantage, so the result is the line for that team in that game.
The constants are shown under every result. Each sport's points-per-rating comes from a fit to finished games that Bandwagon repeats nightly (docs and /odds/methodology); until a league has enough games, the starting values are shown and labeled. These are the model's numbers, not a sportsbook's: books also shade lines for the key numbers 3 and 7 in football and for public money.
Moneyline to Spread Calculator example
You enter
- League
- NFL
- Team's moneyline
- -150
- Other side's moneyline
- +130
You get
- Win probability used
- 58.0%
- Rating edge
- +68 points
- The model's constants
- NFL: scale 0.00557, shift -0.059, home edge 48 rating points, 0.0403 points per rating point (fitted on 1,260 games)
An NFL team at −150 with the other side at +130: removing the margin leaves a 58.0% chance to win, which the model reads as an edge of 56 rating points and a line of −2 (exactly −2.24).
Moneyline to Spread Calculator questions
How do I convert a moneyline to a spread?
Convert the moneyline to a win probability, find the rating edge that gives that probability, and multiply by the points per rating point for the sport. The calculator does all three.
Is a −150 moneyline always the same spread?
No. The same win chance is worth fewer points in a high-scoring sport and more in a low-scoring one, which is why the constant is per sport.
Does this match what sportsbooks post?
Roughly, but not exactly. Books include margin and shade key numbers; this is the model's relationship between the two.
Why does it ask for the other side's moneyline?
To remove the margin. Without it the probability is the price's implied probability, which is a little too high for both sides.
Related calculators
Spread to Moneyline Calculator
Convert a point spread to the fair moneyline and win chance, per sport.
Win Probability to Spread Calculator
Turn a win probability into the point spread the model would set, per sport.
Rating Gap to Win Probability Calculator
The model's logistic: a rating gap to a win probability, per sport, with the constants shown.
Live on Bandwagon
Convert a moneyline to a point spread for the NFL, college football, NBA, college basketball, WNBA, NHL or MLB, using Bandwagon's fitted points-per-rating constants.