Win Probability to Spread Calculator
Enter a win probability and a league to see the spread it is worth.
- Fair moneyline
- −186
- Rating edge
- +122 points
- Other side
- +5 · 35.0%
- The model's constants
- NFL: scale 0.00557, shift -0.059, home edge 48 rating points, 0.0403 points per rating point (fitted on 1,260 games)
The line is for the team with this win probability. The model rounds to the half point; the exact value shows how close it is to the next one. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line.
Model lines and crowd picks for 30 games in the next day and a half, as of Nov 4, 12:46 PM ET. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Educational tool. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. Results are arithmetic on the numbers you enter, not advice.
How the win Probability to Spread Calculator works
The rating edge that gives probability p is (logit(p) − shift) / scale, where logit(p) = ln(p / (1 − p)). The model's spread for that team is −edge × points per rating point, rounded to the half point.
Each league has its own constants: the Elo scale (ln 10 / 400 unless the nightly fit moved it), a shift from the fit, and a points-per-rating-point number from least squares on finished games. The constants used appear under the result, labeled starting or fitted.
Pick a game and side from today's slate to start from the model's own number for it; the spread you get back is the model's posted line, up to rounding.
Win Probability to Spread Calculator example
You enter
- League
- NFL
- Win probability
- 65%
You get
- Fair moneyline
- −186
- Rating edge
- +122 points
- Other side
- +5 · 35.0%
- The model's constants
- NFL: scale 0.00557, shift -0.059, home edge 48 rating points, 0.0403 points per rating point (fitted on 1,260 games)
A 65% chance in the NFL is an edge of about 108 rating points at the Elo curve, which at 0.040 points per rating point is a line near −4.5.
Win Probability to Spread Calculator questions
How many points is a 70% win probability?
It depends on the sport. At the starting constants it is about 5.9 points in the NFL and about 4.1 in the NBA.
Why is the same probability a different spread in different sports?
Because of how much a point swings a game. Basketball scores more, so a point means less.
Is the spread exact?
The calculator shows the exact value and the half-point rounding the model uses.
Where do the constants come from?
A nightly fit on finished games, documented at /odds/methodology.
Related calculators
Moneyline to Spread Calculator
Convert a moneyline to the point spread it is worth, with Bandwagon's fitted constants per sport.
Rating Gap to Win Probability Calculator
The model's logistic: a rating gap to a win probability, per sport, with the constants shown.
Spread to Moneyline Calculator
Convert a point spread to the fair moneyline and win chance, per sport.