Spread to Moneyline Calculator
Enter a spread and a league to see the win chance and fair moneyline.
- Other side, no vig
- +153 · 39.5%
- Decimal odds
- 1.65
- Rating edge
- +87 points
- The model's constants
- NFL: scale 0.00557, shift -0.059, home edge 48 rating points, 0.0403 points per rating point (fitted on 1,260 games)
Method: edge = −line ÷ points per rating point, probability = σ(scale × edge + shift). A sportsbook's own moneyline adds margin on top of this fair price. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line.
Educational tool. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. Results are arithmetic on the numbers you enter, not advice.
How the spread to Moneyline Calculator works
The model's rating edge is −spread / points per rating point, and its win probability is σ(scale × edge + shift). A spread of −3.5 in the NFL at 0.040 points per rating point is an edge of 87.5 rating points.
The moneyline shown is the fair price with no margin: probToAmerican(p). A sportsbook's posted moneyline will be a little worse on both sides.
The curve is steepest near a pick'em, so the first few points of spread move the moneyline most; at long odds each extra point moves it less. The per-sport constants are shown under every result.
Spread to Moneyline Calculator example
You enter
- League
- NFL
- Team's line (− favored, + underdog)
- -3.5
You get
- Other side, no vig
- +153 · 39.5%
- Decimal odds
- 1.65
- Rating edge
- +87 points
- The model's constants
- NFL: scale 0.00557, shift -0.059, home edge 48 rating points, 0.0403 points per rating point (fitted on 1,260 games)
A −3.5 NFL favorite is an edge of 87.5 rating points, which the model reads as a 62.3% chance to win, a fair moneyline of −165. The other side is +165.
Spread to Moneyline Calculator questions
How do I convert a spread to a moneyline?
Convert the spread to a rating edge using the sport's points per rating point, then apply the logistic to get a win probability and write it as a moneyline.
What is −3 worth in the NFL?
Around 60% to win, a fair moneyline in the −150s. The exact value depends on the fitted constants shown under the result.
Why do the answers differ by sport?
Scoring volume. A point is a larger share of a basketball game's variance than a football game's.
Is this the price a sportsbook offers?
No. It is the fair price with no margin.
Related calculators
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Turn a win probability into the point spread the model would set, per sport.
Implied Probability Calculator
The win chance a price implies, with the sportsbook's margin taken out.
Live on Bandwagon
Convert a point spread to a moneyline and win probability for the NFL, college football, NBA, college basketball, WNBA, NHL or MLB with Bandwagon's fitted constants.