Implied Probability Calculator
Enter the price and read the chance it implies, with or without the margin.
- Chance the bet loses at that price
- 47.6%
- Odds against, to one
- 0.91 to 1
- Decimal odds
- 1.91
- Sportsbook margin (overround)
- 4.76%
- Chance with the margin removed
- 50.00%
- Fair odds at that chance
- +100
Margin removed: each side divided by the sum.
Model lines and crowd picks for 30 games in the next day and a half, as of Nov 4, 12:46 PM ET. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Educational tool. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. Results are arithmetic on the numbers you enter, not advice.
How the implied Probability Calculator works
Implied probability = 1 / decimal odds. For American odds that is 100 / (100 + a) for a plus price and |a| / (|a| + 100) for a minus price. It is the break-even win rate of a bet at that price.
Because every book builds a margin into both sides, the implied probabilities of a market add to more than 100%. Enter the other side's odds and the calculator divides each implied probability by their sum, which scales them back to 100% and leaves the chance with the margin removed.
Pick a game from today's slate to start from Bandwagon's model moneyline for that side. Model prices carry no margin, so the implied probability is the model's own win probability.
Implied Probability Calculator example
You enter
- Odds
- -110
- Odds format
- American (−110)
- Other side's odds
- -110
You get
- Chance the bet loses at that price
- 47.6%
- Odds against, to one
- 0.91 to 1
- Decimal odds
- 1.91
- Sportsbook margin (overround)
- 4.76%
- Chance with the margin removed
- 50.00%
- Fair odds at that chance
- +100
Margin removed: each side divided by the sum.
A −110 price implies 52.38%. With −110 on the other side too, the two add to 104.76%, a 4.76 point overround; dividing by that sum leaves 50.00% each.
Implied Probability Calculator questions
What is implied probability in betting?
The chance of winning that a price needs for a bet to break even, 1 divided by the decimal odds. A +200 price implies 33.3%.
Is implied probability the real chance?
No. It is the price's chance, which includes the bookmaker's margin. The no-vig version is closer to the market's opinion; neither is a forecast of your bet.
How do I remove the vig from implied probability?
Divide each side's implied probability by the sum of all sides. That is what the optional second price does here.
Why do implied probabilities add to more than 100%?
The excess is the overround, the bookmaker's margin. A fair market would add to exactly 100%.
Related calculators
Odds Converter
American, decimal, fractional and implied probability, in both directions.
Vig Calculator
The juice on a market, and the fair no-vig odds for each side.
Expected Value Calculator
The average result of a bet if your win probability is right, and the edge over the price.