Expected Value Calculator
Enter the odds and the chance you give it to see the average result.
- Break-even win chance at this price
- 52.38%
- Your edge over the price
- +2.62 points
- Fair odds at your chance
- −122
- Profit if it wins
- $90.91
- Average result over 100 such bets
- $500.00
Expected value is an average over many bets at the stated chance. It is only as good as that chance.
Model lines and crowd picks for 30 games in the next day and a half, as of Nov 4, 12:46 PM ET. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Educational tool. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. Results are arithmetic on the numbers you enter, not advice.
How the expected Value Calculator works
Expected value = P(win) × profit − P(lose) × stake. The profit on a win is stake × (decimal odds − 1). A positive EV means that if your probability is right, the bet makes money on average over many repeats.
The edge is your win probability minus the price's implied probability (1 / decimal). At the fair price the edge and the EV are zero.
The result is only as good as the probability you type. Pick a game and a side from today's slate to start from Bandwagon's model probability, then compare it with the price you are looking at.
Expected Value Calculator example
You enter
- Stake
- $100
- Odds
- -110
- Your win probability
- 55%
- Odds format
- American (−110)
You get
- Break-even win chance at this price
- 52.38%
- Your edge over the price
- +2.62 points
- Fair odds at your chance
- −122
- Profit if it wins
- $90.91
- Average result over 100 such bets
- $500.00
A 100 bet at −110 that wins 55% of the time is worth about +5.00 on average. The break-even chance is 52.38%, so the edge is 2.62 points.
Expected Value Calculator questions
What is a +EV bet?
A bet whose average result is positive given the true chance it wins: the price pays more than the chance justifies.
How do I calculate expected value?
Multiply the chance of winning by the profit, subtract the chance of losing times the stake.
Where do I get a win probability?
From your own model, or Bandwagon's: pick a game from today's slate and the model's probability fills in. No probability is certain.
Does positive EV mean I will win?
No. EV is an average over many bets; any one bet can lose.
Related calculators
Kelly Criterion Calculator
Full, half and quarter Kelly stakes from the odds, your win probability and your bankroll.
Implied Probability Calculator
The win chance a price implies, with the sportsbook's margin taken out.
Closing Line Value Calculator
Compare the price you took with the closing price: improvement, probability gained and EV at the close.