Dallas is down 16-14 early, and the model has the Mavericks at 33 percent to win. The numbers lean toward Houston this early, with the Rockets up two and no crowd picks logged yet.
NBA · · American Airlines Center · every National Basketball Association line
Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks: final score and how the prediction did, October 30, 2026
- Final scoreRockets 111, Mavericks 116 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerRockets 67%
- Pregame Projected scoreRockets 116, Mavericks 113
- Model spreadRockets −3.5 total 228.5
- Margin5 projected 3.5
- Total227 projected 228.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Houston Rockets or Dallas Mavericks: the bandwagon
Axle 67–33Market 65–35
FinalPregame: DAL 33%Baseline: DAL 34.1% (+1.2)Big swing: 30.9 ptsClutch window: 9:40
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 20 | 31 | 33 | 27 | 111 |
| DAL | 27 | 17 | 32 | 40 | 116 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to DAL+29.3 points for DAL over the last 5:00
Big swing30.9 ptstoward DAL at 46:20 of game time
Clutch window9:40within 5 points in the final quarter
BaselineDAL 34.1%game average, +1.2 points from the pregame 32.9%
Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | HOU | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | HOU40/96 | DAL42/81 |
| 3-pointers | HOU7/29 | DAL12/33 |
| Free throws | HOU24/33 | DAL20/27 |
| Rebounds | HOU48 | DAL41 |
| Assists | HOU26 | DAL24 |
| Turnovers | HOU13 | DAL18 |
| Steals | HOU12 | DAL8 |
| Blocks | HOU3 | DAL4 |
| Points in the paint | HOU46 | DAL46 |
| Fast-break points | HOU10 | DAL28 |
| Fouls | HOU23 | DAL24 |
| Largest lead | HOU11 | DAL7 |
Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | HOU | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | HOU111 | DAL116 |
| Average win probability | HOU66% | DAL34% |
| Longest scoring run | HOU+8 | DAL+7 |
| Time leading | HOU27:38 | DAL15:56 |
Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 30, 10:26 PM ET
Rockets67%
Win chanceMavericks33%
SpreadHOU −3.5closing model spread
Total228.5
Moneyline−202away / +202homeaway / home
Line movementDAL win chance, 14 stored lines
−5 pts for DAL between Oct 28 and Oct 30
44%18%
Oct 28Oct 30
Every stored line
| Stored | DAL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 10:26 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 10:26 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 9:36 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 33% | +6 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 2:00 AM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:06 AM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:41 AM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:09 AM ET | 27% | +4 |
| Oct 28, 11:54 PM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 23% | −15 |
| Oct 28, 10:45 PM ET | 38% | — |
- Ratings
- DAL 1427 · HOU 1631
- Home spread
- +3.5
- Stored
- Oct 30, 10:26 PM ET · 2026-10-31 02:26 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Houston Rockets 111, Dallas Mavericks 116. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 29, 10:38 PM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
RocketsMavericks
Neutrals only–
RocketsMavericks
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Mavericks–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Rockets vs Mavericks odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NBA marketKalshi had the Rockets at 65% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 66% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 67% when last read, ; the two venues were 1 point apart at those reads.
| Source | HOU | DAL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 65% | 36% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 66% | 35% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 67% | 33% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, DAL: +2Polymarket minus model, DAL: +1
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Rockets a 3.5-point favorite, with a 67% chance to win. The model total is 228.5. Ratings: Mavericks 1411 (22nd of 30), Rockets 1652 (5th). The Mavericks are 4-2 in the Southwest; the Rockets are 6-1 in the Southwest. The Mavericks have won 3 of their last 5; the Rockets 4 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Mavericks won 3, the Rockets 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Houston Rockets
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Boston Celtics | W 109–93 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Oklahoma City Thunder | W 119–98 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Dallas Mavericks | L 111–116 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Milwaukee Bucks | W 132–100 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Atlanta Hawks | W 120–110 | – | – | matchup |
Dallas Mavericks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Sacramento Kings | L 100–115 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Houston Rockets | W 116–111 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Oklahoma City Thunder | W 120–96 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Miami Heat | W 113–109 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San Antonio Spurs | L 106–122 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets | 110–128 | – | – | matchup | |
| Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets | 132–115 | – | – | matchup | |
| Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks | 135–117 | – | – | matchup | |
| Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets | 107–111 | – | – | matchup | |
| Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks | 104–110 | – | – | matchup | |
| Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks | 109–122 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Houston Rockets: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Dallas Mavericks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Rockets6-1 Southwest, 4th · W1
- Rockets rating1652 5th of 30, 8 games
- Mavericks4-2 Southwest, 3rd · W3
- Mavericks rating1411 22nd of 30, 7 games
Houston Rockets 6-1
National Basketball Association · Southwest · 4th · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $ROCKETS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $ROCKETS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $ROCKETS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $ROCKETS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Houston Rockets bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Dallas Mavericks 4-2
National Basketball Association · Southwest · 3rd · streak W3
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $MAVERICKS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $MAVERICKS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $MAVERICKS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $MAVERICKS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Dallas Mavericks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks
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Final: Rockets 111, Mavericks 116. Bandwagon's model had the Rockets at 67% and projected Rockets 116, Mavericks 113; spread Rockets −3.5, total 228.5. Last read: Kalshi 65%, Polymarket 66% for the Rockets.