Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks: final score and how the prediction did, October 28, 2026
- Final scoreThunder 96, Mavericks 120 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerThunder 87%
- Pregame Projected scoreThunder 118, Mavericks 108
- Model spreadThunder −9.5 total 226
- Margin24 projected 9.5
- Total216 projected 226
Bandwagon Axle 1.0 · Updated
Oklahoma City Thunder or Dallas Mavericks: the bandwagon
Axle 87–13Market –
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 30 | 29 | 22 | 15 | 96 |
| DAL | 33 | 32 | 29 | 26 | 120 |
Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | OKC | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | OKC36/87 | DAL46/97 |
| 3-pointers | OKC5/32 | DAL16/45 |
| Free throws | OKC19/23 | DAL12/15 |
| Rebounds | OKC43 | DAL49 |
| Assists | OKC17 | DAL30 |
| Turnovers | OKC14 | DAL11 |
| Steals | OKC4 | DAL4 |
| Blocks | OKC3 | DAL6 |
| Points in the paint | OKC44 | DAL42 |
| Fast-break points | OKC0 | DAL17 |
| Fouls | OKC19 | DAL20 |
| Largest lead | OKC3 | DAL27 |
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | OKC | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OKC96 | DAL120 |
| Average win probability | OKC44% | DAL56% |
| Longest scoring run | OKC+8 | DAL+12 |
| Time leading | OKC2:38 | DAL38:14 |
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks odds
Every stored line
| Stored | DAL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 11:54 PM ET | 13% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:54 PM ET | 13% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 13% | −29 |
| Oct 28, 10:45 PM ET | 42% | — |
- Ratings
- DAL 1393 · OKC 1749
- Home spread
- +9.5
- Stored
- Oct 28, 11:54 PM ET · 2026-10-29 03:54 UTC
- Version
- Axle 1.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Oklahoma City Thunder 96, Dallas Mavericks 120. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
The inputs behind this line were not recorded (it was stored before model 2.0). Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Thunder a 9.5-point favorite, with a 87% chance to win. The model total is 226. Ratings: Mavericks 1411 (22nd of 30), Thunder 1710 (2nd). The Mavericks are 4-2 in the Southwest; the Thunder are 4-2 in the Northwest. The Mavericks have won 3 of their last 5; the Thunder 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Mavericks won 3, the Thunder 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Cleveland Cavaliers | W 117–112 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Houston Rockets | L 98–119 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Dallas Mavericks | L 96–120 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Phoenix Suns | W 125–114 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs LA Clippers | W 108–101 | – | – | matchup |
Dallas Mavericks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Sacramento Kings | L 100–115 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Houston Rockets | W 116–111 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Oklahoma City Thunder | W 120–96 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Miami Heat | W 113–109 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San Antonio Spurs | L 106–122 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks | 100–87 | – | – | matchup | |
| Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder | 111–132 | – | – | matchup | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks | 101–94 | – | – | matchup | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks | 89–106 | – | – | matchup | |
| Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder | 121–115 | – | – | matchup | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks | 98–106 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Oklahoma City Thunder: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Dallas Mavericks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Thunder4-2 Northwest, 4th · L2
- Thunder rating1710 2nd of 30, 7 games
- Mavericks4-2 Southwest, 3rd · W3
- Mavericks rating1411 22nd of 30, 7 games
National Basketball Association · Northwest · 4th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $THUNDER: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Oklahoma City Thunder bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Dallas Mavericks 4-2
National Basketball Association · Southwest · 3rd · streak W3
No stances yet today on $MAVERICKS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Dallas Mavericks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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