Oklahoma City Thunder vs Cleveland Cavaliers: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreThunder 117, Cavaliers 112 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerThunder 53%
- Model spreadCavaliers −0.5 total 226.5
- Margin5
- Total229 projected 226.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Oklahoma City Thunder or Cleveland Cavaliers: the bandwagon
Axle 53–47Market 38–62
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 26 | 33 | 31 | 27 | 117 |
| CLE | 30 | 18 | 36 | 28 | 112 |
Oklahoma City Thunder at Cleveland Cavaliers win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Cleveland Cavaliers live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | OKC | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | OKC42/98 | CLE40/90 |
| 3-pointers | OKC12/31 | CLE18/49 |
| Free throws | OKC21/23 | CLE14/24 |
| Rebounds | OKC54 | CLE46 |
| Assists | OKC18 | CLE31 |
| Turnovers | OKC8 | CLE8 |
| Steals | OKC5 | CLE7 |
| Blocks | OKC4 | CLE3 |
| Points in the paint | OKC50 | CLE30 |
| Fast-break points | OKC13 | CLE7 |
| Fouls | OKC19 | CLE19 |
| Largest lead | OKC14 | CLE5 |
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Cleveland Cavaliers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | OKC | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OKC117 | CLE112 |
| Average win probability | OKC45% | CLE55% |
| Longest scoring run | OKC+5 | CLE+4 |
| Time leading | OKC1:55 | CLE4:06 |
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Cleveland Cavaliers model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | CLE win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:40 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:00 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:51 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:07 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 47% | +4 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 43% | +2 |
| Oct 31, 10:21 PM ET | 41% | +2 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 10:26 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 9:36 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:32 PM ET | 39% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 40% | +4 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 2:00 AM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:06 AM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:41 AM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:09 AM ET | 36% | +5 |
| Oct 28, 11:54 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 31% | — |
- Ratings
- CLE 1589 · OKC 1700
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET · 2026-11-03 00:55 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Oklahoma City Thunder 117, Cleveland Cavaliers 112. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 31, 5:30 AM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Thunder vs Cavaliers odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NBA marketKalshi had the Thunder at 38% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 38% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 53% when last read, .
| Source | OKC | CLE | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 38% | 62% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 38% | 62% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 53% | 47% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Cleveland Cavaliers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Thunder the favorite, with a 53% chance to win; its spread is Cavaliers −0.5. The model total is 226.5. Ratings: Cavaliers 1580 (10th of 30), Thunder 1710 (2nd). The Cavaliers are 4-3 in the Central; the Thunder are 5-2 in the Northwest. The Cavaliers have won 2 of their last 5; the Thunder 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Cavaliers won 1, the Thunder 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Cleveland Cavaliers | W 124–116 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Cleveland Cavaliers | W 117–112 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Houston Rockets | L 98–119 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Dallas Mavericks | L 96–120 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Phoenix Suns | W 125–114 | – | – | matchup |
Cleveland Cavaliers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Oklahoma City Thunder | L 116–124 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Oklahoma City Thunder | L 112–117 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Milwaukee Bucks | W 136–111 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Atlanta Hawks | L 111–114 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Washington Wizards | W 121–111 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder | 116–124 | – | – | matchup | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder | 113–121 | – | – | matchup | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder at Cleveland Cavaliers | 136–104 | – | – | matchup | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder | 114–134 | – | – | matchup | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder at Cleveland Cavaliers | 122–129 | – | – | matchup | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder | 120–128 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Oklahoma City Thunder: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Cleveland Cavaliers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Thunder5-2 Northwest, 4th · W1
- Thunder rating1710 2nd of 30, 7 games
- Cavaliers4-3 Central, 4th · L1
- Cavaliers rating1580 10th of 30, 7 games
National Basketball Association · Northwest · 4th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $THUNDER: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Oklahoma City Thunder bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
National Basketball Association · Central · 4th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $CAVALIERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Cleveland Cavaliers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Oklahoma City Thunder at Cleveland Cavaliers
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Final: Thunder 117, Cavaliers 112. Bandwagon's model had the Thunder at 53%; spread Cavaliers −0.5, total 226.5. Last read: Kalshi 38%, Polymarket 38% for the Thunder.