Cleveland Cavaliers vs Atlanta Hawks: final score and how the prediction did, October 29, 2026
- Final scoreCavaliers 111, Hawks 114
- Pregame Projected winnereven
- Pregame Projected scoreHawks 117, Cavaliers 115
- Model spreadHawks −2 total 232
- Margin3 projected 2
- Total225 projected 232
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Cleveland Cavaliers or Atlanta Hawks: the bandwagon
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Axle 49–51Market 48–52
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 28 | 16 | 38 | 29 | 111 |
| ATL | 16 | 30 | 43 | 25 | 114 |
Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Atlanta Hawks live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | CLE | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | CLE38/87 | ATL42/95 |
| 3-pointers | CLE13/42 | ATL17/43 |
| Free throws | CLE22/29 | ATL13/18 |
| Rebounds | CLE45 | ATL53 |
| Assists | CLE26 | ATL34 |
| Turnovers | CLE9 | ATL11 |
| Steals | CLE3 | ATL4 |
| Blocks | CLE5 | ATL3 |
| Points in the paint | CLE46 | ATL50 |
| Fast-break points | CLE4 | ATL15 |
| Fouls | CLE19 | ATL22 |
| Largest lead | CLE15 | ATL11 |
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Atlanta Hawks team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | CLE | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CLE111 | ATL114 |
| Average win probability | CLE41% | ATL59% |
| Longest scoring run | CLE+5 | ATL+9 |
| Time leading | CLE18:02 | ATL26:27 |
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Atlanta Hawks model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | ATL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 51% | +2 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 2:00 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:06 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:41 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:09 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:54 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:45 PM ET | 49% | — |
- Ratings
- ATL 1537 · CLE 1582
- Home spread
- −2
- Stored
- Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET · 2026-10-30 02:27 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
- Last move
- total 233 → 232, home 49% → 51%
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Cleveland Cavaliers 111, Atlanta Hawks 114. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 29, 10:38 PM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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1 pick so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Cavaliers vs Hawks odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NBA marketKalshi had the Hawks at 52% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 52% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 49% when last read, .
| Source | CLE | ATL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 48% | 52% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 48% | 52% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 49% | 51% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Atlanta Hawks prediction
Bandwagon's model has this one even: 51% for the Hawks. The model total is 232. Ratings: Hawks 1524 (14th of 30), Cavaliers 1580 (10th). The Hawks are 4-4 in the Southeast; the Cavaliers are 4-3 in the Central. The Hawks have won 2 of their last 5; the Cavaliers 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Hawks won 3, the Cavaliers 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Cleveland Cavaliers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Oklahoma City Thunder | L 112–117 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Milwaukee Bucks | W 136–111 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Atlanta Hawks | L 111–114 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Washington Wizards | W 121–111 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Minnesota Timberwolves | W 127–125 | – | – | matchup |
Atlanta Hawks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Indiana Pacers | W 108–104 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New Orleans Pelicans | L 99–121 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Cleveland Cavaliers | W 114–111 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Miami Heat | L 117–129 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Houston Rockets | L 110–120 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks | 102–124 | – | – | matchup | |
| Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers | 116–122 | – | – | matchup | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks | 123–130 | – | – | matchup | |
| Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers | 109–117 | – | – | matchup | |
| Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers | 115–137 | – | – | matchup | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks | 101–117 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Cleveland Cavaliers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Atlanta Hawks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Cavaliers4-3 Central, 4th · L1
- Cavaliers rating1580 10th of 30, 7 games
- Hawks4-4 Southeast, 4th · W1
- Hawks rating1524 14th of 30, 8 games
National Basketball Association · Central · 4th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $CAVALIERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Cleveland Cavaliers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Atlanta Hawks 4-4
National Basketball Association · Southeast · 4th · streak W1
1 stance today on $HAWKS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Atlanta Hawks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Final: Cavaliers 111, Hawks 114. Bandwagon's model had it even and projected Hawks 117, Cavaliers 115; spread Hawks −2, total 232. Last read: Kalshi 52%, Polymarket 52% for the Hawks.