Pelicans lead the Hawks 48-31 with 6:07 left in the second. The model still has New Orleans at 39 percent, so the lead is real but not settled.
NBA · · Smoothie King Center · every National Basketball Association line
Atlanta Hawks vs New Orleans Pelicans: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreHawks 99, Pelicans 121 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerHawks 61%
- Pregame Projected scoreHawks 117, Pelicans 116
- Model spreadHawks −1.5 total 233
- Margin22 projected 1.5
- Total220 projected 233
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Atlanta Hawks or New Orleans Pelicans: the bandwagon
Bandwagon1 on the bandwagon so far
Be the first on the bandwagon
Axle 61–39Market 65–35
FinalPregame: NO 39%Baseline: NO 87.2% (+48.1)Big swing: 8.5 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 18 | 30 | 26 | 25 | 99 |
| NO | 35 | 28 | 29 | 29 | 121 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Atlanta Hawks at New Orleans Pelicans win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for NO over the last 5:00
Big swing8.5 ptstoward NO at 8:53 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 5 points in the final quarter
BaselineNO 87.2%game average, +48.1 points from the pregame 39.1%
Atlanta Hawks vs New Orleans Pelicans live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | ATL | NO |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | ATL35/91 | NO43/76 |
| 3-pointers | ATL8/46 | NO7/17 |
| Free throws | ATL21/23 | NO28/35 |
| Rebounds | ATL36 | NO49 |
| Assists | ATL20 | NO27 |
| Turnovers | ATL19 | NO25 |
| Steals | ATL11 | NO15 |
| Blocks | ATL4 | NO4 |
| Points in the paint | ATL52 | NO66 |
| Fast-break points | ATL18 | NO19 |
| Fouls | ATL21 | NO21 |
| Largest lead | ATL2 | NO28 |
Atlanta Hawks vs New Orleans Pelicans team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | ATL | NO |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ATL99 | NO121 |
| Average win probability | ATL13% | NO87% |
| Longest scoring run | ATL+4 | NO+9 |
| Time leading | ATL0:00 | NO44:59 |
Atlanta Hawks vs New Orleans Pelicans model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET
Hawks61%
Win chancePelicans39%
SpreadATL −1.5closing model spread
Total233
Moneyline−156away / +156homeaway / home
Line movementNO win chance, 15 stored lines
+5 pts for NO between Oct 28 and Oct 31
45%28%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | NO win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 10:26 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 9:36 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:32 PM ET | 39% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 40% | +6 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 2:00 AM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:06 AM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:41 AM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:09 AM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:54 PM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 34% | — |
- Ratings
- NO 1394 · ATL 1542
- Home spread
- +1.5
- Stored
- Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET · 2026-10-31 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Atlanta Hawks 99, New Orleans Pelicans 121. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 29, 10:38 PM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
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HawksPelicans
Neutrals only–
HawksPelicans
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Pelicans–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Hawks vs Pelicans odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NBA marketKalshi had the Hawks at 65% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 65% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 61% when last read, .
| Source | ATL | NO | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 65% | 35% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 65% | 35% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 61% | 39% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, NO: −4Polymarket minus model, NO: −4
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Atlanta Hawks vs New Orleans Pelicans prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Hawks a 1.5-point favorite, with a 61% chance to win. The model total is 233. Ratings: Pelicans 1422 (21st of 30), Hawks 1524 (14th). The Pelicans are 3-4 in the Southwest; the Hawks are 4-4 in the Southeast. The Pelicans have won 3 of their last 5; the Hawks 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Pelicans won 1, the Hawks 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Atlanta Hawks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Washington Wizards | W 120–105 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Indiana Pacers | W 108–104 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New Orleans Pelicans | L 99–121 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Cleveland Cavaliers | W 114–111 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Miami Heat | L 117–129 | – | – | matchup |
New Orleans Pelicans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Memphis Grizzlies | W 135–134 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Atlanta Hawks | W 121–99 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sacramento Kings | W 132–120 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Denver Nuggets | L 91–104 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Denver Nuggets | L 135–141 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Pelicans at Atlanta Hawks | 100–117 | – | – | matchup | |
| Atlanta Hawks at New Orleans Pelicans | 115–98 | – | – | matchup | |
| New Orleans Pelicans at Atlanta Hawks | 112–124 | – | – | matchup | |
| Atlanta Hawks at New Orleans Pelicans | 126–111 | – | – | matchup | |
| New Orleans Pelicans at Atlanta Hawks | 116–103 | – | – | matchup | |
| Atlanta Hawks at New Orleans Pelicans | 123–105 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Atlanta Hawks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
New Orleans Pelicans: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Hawks4-4 Southeast, 4th · W1
- Hawks rating1524 14th of 30, 8 games
- Pelicans3-4 Southwest, 1st · W3
- Pelicans rating1422 21st of 30, 7 games
Atlanta Hawks 4-4
National Basketball Association · Southeast · 4th · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagon1 stance so far today on $HAWKS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $HAWKS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagon1 stance so far today on $HAWKS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
1 stance today on $HAWKS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Atlanta Hawks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
National Basketball Association · Southwest · 1st · streak W3
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $PELICANS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $PELICANS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $PELICANS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $PELICANS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the New Orleans Pelicans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Atlanta Hawks at New Orleans Pelicans
Sign in to post a take on $HAWKSPELICANS261031: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Hawks 99, Pelicans 121. Bandwagon's model had the Hawks at 61% and projected Hawks 117, Pelicans 116; spread Hawks −1.5, total 233. Last read: Kalshi 65%, Polymarket 65% for the Hawks.