The Pacers saw their chance of winning fall from 35 to 23 percent over three hours, a 12-point drop that favors the Hawks. The model has Indiana at 27 percent, and there is no crowd pick yet to weigh against it.
NBA · · Gainbridge Fieldhouse · every National Basketball Association line
Atlanta Hawks vs Indiana Pacers: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreHawks 108, Pacers 104 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerHawks 73%
- Pregame Projected scoreHawks 117, Pacers 112
- Model spreadHawks −5.5 total 229.5
- Margin4 projected 5.4
- Total212 projected 229.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Atlanta Hawks or Indiana Pacers: the bandwagon
Bandwagon1 on the bandwagon so far
Be the first on the bandwagon
Axle 73–27Market 79–21
FinalPregame: IND 27%Baseline: IND 18.0% (−9.3)Big swing: 24.2 ptsClutch window: 4:13
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 37 | 31 | 19 | 21 | 108 |
| IND | 29 | 27 | 23 | 25 | 104 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable−1.2 points for IND over the last 5:00
Big swing24.2 ptstoward ATL at 47:39 of game time
Clutch window4:13within 5 points in the final quarter
BaselineIND 18.0%game average, −9.3 points from the pregame 27.3%
Atlanta Hawks vs Indiana Pacers live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | ATL | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | ATL40/103 | IND38/80 |
| 3-pointers | ATL23/51 | IND8/34 |
| Free throws | ATL5/8 | IND20/23 |
| Rebounds | ATL49 | IND39 |
| Assists | ATL29 | IND22 |
| Turnovers | ATL16 | IND19 |
| Steals | ATL12 | IND12 |
| Blocks | ATL4 | IND9 |
| Points in the paint | ATL26 | IND54 |
| Fast-break points | ATL10 | IND14 |
| Fouls | ATL23 | IND14 |
| Largest lead | ATL15 | IND2 |
Atlanta Hawks vs Indiana Pacers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | ATL | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ATL108 | IND104 |
| Average win probability | ATL82% | IND18% |
| Longest scoring run | ATL+5 | IND+9 |
| Time leading | ATL13:25 | IND0:00 |
Atlanta Hawks vs Indiana Pacers model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET
Hawks73%
Win chancePacers27%
SpreadATL −5.5closing model spread
Total229.5
Moneyline−267away / +267homeaway / home
Line movementIND win chance, 24 stored lines
No move
40%22%
Oct 28Oct 31Nov 2
Every stored line
| Stored | IND win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:00 PM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:51 PM ET | 27% | −2 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 29% | −6 |
| Oct 31, 9:36 PM ET | 35% | +3 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 32% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 10:41 PM ET | 32% | −1 |
| Oct 30, 10:26 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 9:36 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:32 PM ET | 33% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 34% | +7 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 2:00 AM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:06 AM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:41 AM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:09 AM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:54 PM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 27% | — |
- Ratings
- IND 1314 · ATL 1518
- Home spread
- +5.5
- Stored
- Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET · 2026-11-03 02:57 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Atlanta Hawks 108, Indiana Pacers 104. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Nov 2, 8:59 AM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
HawksPacers
Neutrals only–
HawksPacers
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Pacers–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Hawks vs Pacers odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NBA marketKalshi had the Hawks at 79% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 79% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 73% when last read, .
| Source | ATL | IND | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 79% | 21% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 79% | 21% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 73% | 27% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, IND: −6Polymarket minus model, IND: −6
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Atlanta Hawks vs Indiana Pacers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Hawks a 5.5-point favorite, with a 73% chance to win. The model total is 229.5. Ratings: Pacers 1308 (28th of 30), Hawks 1524 (14th). The Pacers are 2-6 in the Central; the Hawks are 4-4 in the Southeast. The Pacers have won 1 of their last 5; the Hawks 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Pacers won 1, the Hawks 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Atlanta Hawks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Washington Wizards | W 120–105 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Indiana Pacers | W 108–104 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New Orleans Pelicans | L 99–121 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Cleveland Cavaliers | W 114–111 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Miami Heat | L 117–129 | – | – | matchup |
Indiana Pacers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Memphis Grizzlies | W 107–103 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Atlanta Hawks | L 104–108 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Brooklyn Nets | L 90–98 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Miami Heat | L 125–145 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Philadelphia 76ers | L 109–114 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers | 119–117 | – | – | matchup | |
| Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers | 124–129 | – | – | matchup | |
| Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks | 116–132 | – | – | matchup | |
| Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers | 128–108 | – | – | matchup | |
| Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks | 118–120 | – | – | matchup | |
| Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks | 118–124 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Atlanta Hawks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Indiana Pacers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Hawks4-4 Southeast, 4th · W1
- Hawks rating1524 14th of 30, 8 games
- Pacers2-6 Central, 3rd · L5
- Pacers rating1308 28th of 30, 8 games
Atlanta Hawks 4-4
National Basketball Association · Southeast · 4th · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagon1 stance so far today on $HAWKS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $HAWKS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagon1 stance so far today on $HAWKS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
1 stance today on $HAWKS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Atlanta Hawks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Indiana Pacers 2-6
National Basketball Association · Central · 3rd · streak L5
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $PACERS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $PACERS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $PACERS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $PACERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Indiana Pacers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers
Sign in to post a take on $HAWKSPACERS261103: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Hawks 108, Pacers 104. Bandwagon's model had the Hawks at 73% and projected Hawks 117, Pacers 112; spread Hawks −5.5, total 229.5. Last read: Kalshi 79%, Polymarket 79% for the Hawks.