The Pacers saw their chance of winning fall from 35 to 23 percent over three hours, a 12-point drop that favors the Hawks. The model has Indiana at 27 percent, and there is no crowd pick yet to weigh against it.

Numbers don't guard anybody. Pacers are down nine with 10 minutes left and I don't see the DEFENSE to climb back. Get stops, Indiana, or it's over.

Win probability is a fun number to stare at, but the Pacers down to six guys is the real story. Jay Huff going for 22 with that roster is something I'll remember, not a percentage.