Indiana leads 39-32 with 1:18 left in the first, and the model still has Miami at 72 percent. Seven points is a small number this early, and the Heat's share hasn't moved off that mark.
NBA · · Kaseya Center · every National Basketball Association line
Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat: final score and how the prediction did, October 30, 2026
- Final scorePacers 125, Heat 145 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerHeat 72%
- Pregame Projected scoreHeat 119, Pacers 111
- Model spreadHeat −8 total 230
- Margin20 projected 8
- Total270 projected 230
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Indiana Pacers or Miami Heat: the bandwagon
Axle 28–72Market 27–73
FinalPregame: MIA 72%Baseline: MIA 83.7% (+11.9)Big swing: 13.4 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 42 | 19 | 27 | 37 | 125 |
| MIA | 36 | 32 | 35 | 42 | 145 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for MIA over the last 5:00
Big swing13.4 ptstoward MIA at 2:45 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 5 points in the final quarter
BaselineMIA 83.7%game average, +11.9 points from the pregame 71.8%
Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | IND | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | IND44/91 | MIA54/91 |
| 3-pointers | IND17/36 | MIA18/40 |
| Free throws | IND20/27 | MIA19/23 |
| Rebounds | IND37 | MIA46 |
| Assists | IND27 | MIA38 |
| Turnovers | IND15 | MIA16 |
| Steals | IND11 | MIA8 |
| Blocks | IND2 | MIA3 |
| Points in the paint | IND50 | MIA64 |
| Fast-break points | IND18 | MIA14 |
| Fouls | IND21 | MIA20 |
| Largest lead | IND8 | MIA25 |
Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | IND | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Score | IND125 | MIA145 |
| Average win probability | IND16% | MIA84% |
| Longest scoring run | IND+9 | MIA+16 |
| Time leading | IND11:07 | MIA33:07 |
Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 30, 10:26 PM ET
Pacers28%
Win chanceHeat72%
SpreadMIA −8closing model spread
Total230
Moneyline+255away / −255homeaway / home
Line movementMIA win chance, 14 stored lines
+27 pts for MIA between Oct 28 and Oct 30
81%40%
Oct 28Oct 30
Every stored line
| Stored | MIA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 10:26 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 10:26 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 9:36 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 72% | −3 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 2:00 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:06 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:41 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:09 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:54 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 75% | +30 |
| Oct 28, 10:45 PM ET | 45% | — |
- Ratings
- MIA 1483 · IND 1340
- Home spread
- −8
- Stored
- Oct 30, 10:26 PM ET · 2026-10-31 02:26 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Indiana Pacers 125, Miami Heat 145. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 29, 10:38 PM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
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PacersHeat
Neutrals only–
PacersHeat
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Heat–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Pacers vs Heat odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NBA marketKalshi had the Heat at 73% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 74% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 72% when last read, ; the two venues were 1 point apart at those reads.
| Source | IND | MIA | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 27% | 73% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 26% | 74% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 28% | 72% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, MIA: +1Polymarket minus model, MIA: +2
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Heat a 8-point favorite at home, with a 72% chance to win. The model total is 230. Ratings: Heat 1481 (19th of 30), Pacers 1308 (28th). The Heat are 2-5 in the Southeast; the Pacers are 2-6 in the Central. The Heat have won 2 of their last 5; the Pacers 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Heat won 2, the Pacers 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Indiana Pacers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Memphis Grizzlies | W 107–103 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Atlanta Hawks | L 104–108 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Brooklyn Nets | L 90–98 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Miami Heat | L 125–145 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Philadelphia 76ers | L 109–114 | – | – | matchup |
Miami Heat
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Los Angeles Lakers | L 117–138 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Indiana Pacers | W 145–125 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Atlanta Hawks | W 129–117 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Dallas Mavericks | L 109–113 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Charlotte Hornets | L 110–115 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers | 118–135 | – | – | matchup | |
| Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers | 99–123 | – | – | matchup | |
| Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat | 116–142 | – | – | matchup | |
| Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat | 120–125 | – | – | matchup | |
| Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat | 128–115 | – | – | matchup | |
| Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers | 110–119 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Indiana Pacers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Miami Heat: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Pacers2-6 Central, 3rd · L5
- Pacers rating1308 28th of 30, 8 games
- Heat2-5 Southeast, 1st · L1
- Heat rating1481 19th of 30, 7 games
Indiana Pacers 2-6
National Basketball Association · Central · 3rd · streak L5
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $PACERS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $PACERS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $PACERS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $PACERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Indiana Pacers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Miami Heat 2-5
National Basketball Association · Southeast · 1st · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $HEAT
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $HEAT
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $HEAT
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $HEAT: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Miami Heat bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat
Sign in to post a take on $PACERSHEAT261031: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Pacers 125, Heat 145. Bandwagon's model had the Heat at 72% and projected Heat 119, Pacers 111; spread Heat −8, total 230. Last read: Kalshi 73%, Polymarket 74% for the Heat.