It is 5-4 Bucks after the opening minutes, and that tells us very little yet. Our projection still has Milwaukee at 29 percent, so the numbers lean toward Cleveland at this stage.
NBA · · Fiserv Forum · every National Basketball Association line
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Milwaukee Bucks: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreCavaliers 136, Bucks 111 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerCavaliers 71%
- Pregame Projected scoreCavaliers 119, Bucks 114
- Model spreadCavaliers −5 total 232.5
- Margin25 projected 5
- Total247 projected 232.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Cleveland Cavaliers or Milwaukee Bucks: the bandwagon
Axle 71–29Market 76–25
FinalPregame: MIL 29%Baseline: MIL 11.4% (−17.3)Big swing: 15.6 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 24 | 48 | 37 | 27 | 136 |
| MIL | 25 | 21 | 30 | 35 | 111 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for MIL over the last 5:00
Big swing15.6 ptstoward MIL at 5:35 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 5 points in the final quarter
BaselineMIL 11.4%game average, −17.3 points from the pregame 28.7%
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Milwaukee Bucks live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | CLE | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | CLE52/100 | MIL41/100 |
| 3-pointers | CLE20/46 | MIL17/51 |
| Free throws | CLE12/18 | MIL12/18 |
| Rebounds | CLE56 | MIL45 |
| Assists | CLE41 | MIL33 |
| Turnovers | CLE12 | MIL13 |
| Steals | CLE8 | MIL5 |
| Blocks | CLE4 | MIL4 |
| Points in the paint | CLE60 | MIL46 |
| Fast-break points | CLE11 | MIL15 |
| Fouls | CLE17 | MIL13 |
| Largest lead | CLE36 | MIL6 |
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Milwaukee Bucks team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | CLE | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CLE136 | MIL111 |
| Average win probability | CLE89% | MIL11% |
| Longest scoring run | CLE+13 | MIL+12 |
| Time leading | CLE36:59 | MIL9:13 |
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Milwaukee Bucks model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET
Cavaliers71%
Win chanceBucks29%
SpreadCLE −5closing model spread
Total232.5
Moneyline−248away / +248homeaway / home
Line movementMIL win chance, 15 stored lines
+7 pts for MIL between Oct 28 and Oct 31
34%16%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | MIL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 29% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 29% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 10:26 PM ET | 29% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 9:36 PM ET | 29% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 29% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:32 PM ET | 29% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 28% | +6 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 2:00 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:06 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:41 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:09 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:54 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 22% | — |
- Ratings
- MIL 1330 · CLE 1576
- Home spread
- +5
- Stored
- Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET · 2026-10-31 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Cleveland Cavaliers 136, Milwaukee Bucks 111. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · The injury list is older than three daysplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
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CavaliersBucks
Neutrals only–
CavaliersBucks
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Bucks–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Cavaliers vs Bucks odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NBA marketKalshi had the Cavaliers at 76% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 76% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 71% when last read, .
| Source | CLE | MIL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 76% | 25% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 76% | 25% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 71% | 29% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, MIL: −4Polymarket minus model, MIL: −4
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Milwaukee Bucks prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Cavaliers a 5-point favorite, with a 71% chance to win. The model total is 232.5. Ratings: Bucks 1315 (26th of 30), Cavaliers 1580 (10th). The Bucks are 1-5 in the Central; the Cavaliers are 4-2 in the Central. The Bucks have won 1 of their last 5; the Cavaliers 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Bucks won 1, the Cavaliers 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Cleveland Cavaliers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Oklahoma City Thunder | L 112–117 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Milwaukee Bucks | W 136–111 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Atlanta Hawks | L 111–114 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Washington Wizards | W 121–111 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Minnesota Timberwolves | W 127–125 | – | – | matchup |
Milwaukee Bucks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Minnesota Timberwolves | L 100–112 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Cleveland Cavaliers | L 111–136 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Houston Rockets | L 100–132 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Indiana Pacers | W 110–102 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Philadelphia 76ers | L 116–127 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks | 123–116 | – | – | matchup | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks | 116–118 | – | – | matchup | |
| Milwaukee Bucks at Cleveland Cavaliers | 106–118 | – | – | matchup | |
| Milwaukee Bucks at Cleveland Cavaliers | 113–118 | – | – | matchup | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks | 112–100 | – | – | matchup | |
| Milwaukee Bucks at Cleveland Cavaliers | 101–124 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Cleveland Cavaliers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Milwaukee Bucks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Cavaliers4-2 Central, 4th · W1
- Cavaliers rating1580 10th of 30, 7 games
- Bucks1-5 Central, 2nd · L2
- Bucks rating1315 26th of 30, 7 games
National Basketball Association · Central · 4th · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $CAVALIERS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $CAVALIERS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $CAVALIERS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $CAVALIERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Cleveland Cavaliers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Milwaukee Bucks 1-5
National Basketball Association · Central · 2nd · streak L2
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $BUCKS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $BUCKS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $BUCKS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $BUCKS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Milwaukee Bucks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks
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Final: Cavaliers 136, Bucks 111. Bandwagon's model had the Cavaliers at 71% and projected Cavaliers 119, Bucks 114; spread Cavaliers −5, total 232.5. Last read: Kalshi 76%, Polymarket 76% for the Cavaliers.